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Power Arms of the Future

This post began as a prospect report on Giants' farmhand, Madison Bumgarner. We started out thinking about him but couldn't find anything to really write about. Well, other than he's a tall, hard-throwing lefty.

It made us want to compare his promise to that of other young pitchers. We started thinking about ranking a subgroup of guys that included Brandon Morrow, Edwin Jackson, Phil Hughes, and even Randy Wells. Considering whether we included some guys, like Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez, made it too tough to quantify any qualifications for making the list.

Since we didn't want to get into who's a rookie and who isn't, we're going to keep it clear and rank the Top 25 pitchers who made their Major League debut this season...

25.) Daniel Schlereth
24.) Matt Daley
Power Arms of the Future23.) Koji Uehara
22.) Brad Bergesen
21.) Ryan Perry
20.) Kenshin Kawakami
19.) Vin Mazzaro
18.) Brett Cecil
17.) Marc Rzepczynksi
16.) Jordan Zimmermann
15.) Brian Matusz
14.) Andrew Bailey
13.) Aaron Poreda
12.) Trevor Cahill
11.) Ricky Romero

10.) Junichi Tazawa
My first instinct was to think that Tazawa was not a true youngster and that he had already enjoyed a successful run as a pro in Japan. However, actually looking it up shows me that he's just 23 years old and he did not play professionally in Japan. Scouting reports on Tazawa show that he can be a solid Major Leaguer. He lacks a mid to upper 90's fastaball, but he has movement on his two seamer and seems to throw enough offspeed pitches to make him successful. I think he'll have some growing pains and some bad starts, but he should get run support for the next few seasons, at least.

Power Arms of the Future9.) Brett Anderson
I have been a slow adopter to the values of Brett Anderson. I think it's because of his white bread name that I've never been intrigued enough to consider his efficacy. He still makes me think of Brian Anderson, who stinks. But, look at Anderson's stats, and his 39 BB's to 109 K's speak volumes.

8.) Derek Holland
Here's a guy that I have been following all season. First, they started him off slowly, in the bullpen. He became the swing man/6th starter and finally got a firm spot in the rotation after the Rangers got rid of Vicente Padilla. He's had tremendous moments, and some awful stinkers. So, he's the ultimate risk/reward guy on this list. I'm thinking that he will continue his success throwing ground balls and striking out enough guys to overcome the Rangers' home ballpark.

7.) Daniel Bard
Bard is one of those guys with a fastball that jumps out of his hands. As we've shown in this space over and over again, our eyes can deceive us. Bard has had some stretches of inconsistency, while showing brilliant stretches where no-one can even get a good swing on him. We have no doubt that he will have a succesful career. He's been put in the bullpen at a young age, which reduces the innate risk of injury that all these guys have. Don't tell that to Joel Zumaya, but it's true.

6.) Chris Tillman
Power Arms of the FutureApologies to Brian Matusz, but I am in the Chris Tillman camp, if I had to pick one. Matusz will probably also have a great career, and these guys are two of the many reason I think the O's will compete in 2011. Chris Tillman looks like a tall power pitcher who's going to get better and better. I saw him two starts ago, and he reminded me of Josh Johnson, the way he fearlessly threw his fastball for strikes. In his past game, he got touched up for 3 solo HR's. You're not gonna get killed giving up solo HR's. He's on the right track.

5.) Bud Norris
The future of the Astros is in good hands if this guy keeps progressing. He's shown to throw a lot of sliders (almost 40%), and his changeup has also been effective about 5% of the time. ZiPS has him for a 5.50 ERA the rest of the way, so they aren't too favorable on him. I think that probably has a lot ot do with his 4 BB's / 9IP, which needs to be lowered.

Power Arms of the Future4.) Mat Latos
This guy has a chance to be the Chris Anderson of baseball. He's inked up, and he has a cockiness that his manager euphemistically termed "confidence". I love his potential in Petco Park. He's shown the ability to strike people out, and his flyball rendencies should play well in home games.

3.) Rick Porcello
Had baby faced Rick Porcello stayed in school, he'd be a sophomore in college. The fact that he's been the #3 starter for a division leading Tigers team is amazing. The Tigers gambled a lot that he could make the jump from Single A. Hearing the legend of Porcello grow during Spring Training, we had very high hopes. He hasn't disappointed at all for the Tigers, but as for being a fantasy ace, he lacks the strikeouts. We have him here because he is young enough to learn a strikeout pitch, maybe tighten up the slider or learn to locate it and his fastball a bit better.

2.) Neftali Feliz
Hearing scouts talk about any young fireballer can often lead itself open to hyperbole. Watching this whiz kid effortlessly get big league hitters out makes the grandest exaggeration seem possible. I'm trying not to spout out something I'll regret later, so let me just show that going into Saturday night's game, Neftali had faced 39 batters, gave up 4 hits, walked no-one, and struck out 17. He's great, and he has yet to even learn how to pitch.

1.) Tommy Hanson
Power Arms of the FutureThe Braves waited and waited... people scoffed, "the Braves don't have five pitchers better than Hanson."... Clearly, the Braves were hedging their bets. They were seasoning the prospect in Triple-A, while kicking the tires of old friend, Tom Glavine. Once it was irrefutable that Hanson was better than Glavine and the majority of the Braves' staff, the kid got the call. He has not disappointed at all. His poor starts are above average, and he's shown the skills to battle and win when his stuff is less than sharp.

Did we leave anyone important off the list? Probably, and... please let us know in the comments section.

Fare Thee Well, Mr. Latos

Warning: I expect no-one to care about this quick post. Still, our imaginary sponsors thank you for your support.

I'm trying to keep the creative juices flowing... trying to get back in the swing of posting the thoughts that come to me during the season.


No-one should care about my roto league... I shouldn't even care as much as I do. I follow the guys on my team and expect them to play in a way that represents my values & ideals. That's just plain silly.


Fare Thee Well, Mr. LatosStill, I feel a tremendous sense of accomplishment and loss at the same time because yesterday I traded rookie pitcher, Mat Latos, for Miguel Cabrera. Of course, that is not an even trade - if all things are equal. However, in my league all things are not equal. We are allowed to keep five guys who are drafted after the 4th round. Since MiggyCab is a bonafide 1st rounder, he's not a keeper. Mat Latos, on the other hand was not drafted this season; I picked him up a few weeks ago. In his first 5 major league starts, he's won four games and created enough buzz that we could trade him for one of the most valuable hitters in the game.


Since my team is competing for the title, I didn't think twice about making the deal. We still need more pitching, but since there are rumblings that Latos may get shut down due to innings limits, it was an obvious move.


Fare Thee Well, Mr. LatosIn my efforts to make a formal plea, I wish that Latos pitches well tonight against St. Louis for a couple of reasons. First, he's pitching against St. Louis, and I hate St. Louis. I hate them more than the White Sox, so that's saying something. Second, he's still on my active roster because the trade was approved after games started today.


So, as Bob Dylan would say, "Fare thee well, Mr. Latos." Let's get another win tonight, then you can go ahead and continue your career for another.

Value Over/Under

Today's exercise looks at some of baseball's most overpaid and underpaid players, based on their '09 performance. Hopefully, this will be informative, fun, or at the very least: tolerable.

Special thanks to Fangraphs and Cot's Baseball Contracts.

First, we'll look at the most overpaid... all figures in millions (salary / value / net loss)...

C: Kenji Johjima, Mariners, s: $8 / v: $1.4 / nl: $6.6
1b: Todd Helton, Rockies, s: $16.6 / v: $7.5 / nl: $9.1
2b: Alexi Casilla, Twins, s: $0.4275 / v: (-$6.2) / nl: $6.6275
SS: Alex Gonzalez, Reds, s: $5.375 / v: (-$3.6) / nl: $8.975
3b: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, s: $32 / v: $10.8 / nl: $21.2
LF: Alfonso Soriano, Cubs, s: $16 / v: $1.6 / nl: $14.4
CF: Gary Matthews Jr, Angels, s: $10 / v (-$5.7) / nl: $15.7
RF: Jose Guillen, Royals, s: $12 / v: (-$7.8) / nl: $19.8
SP: Oliver Perez, Mets, s: $12 / v: (-$2.5) / nl: $14.5
RP: Brad Lidge, Phillies, s: $11.5 / value (-$3.6) / nl: $15.1

Value Over/UnderAll else being equal, this presents Jose Guillen as the worst investment in 2009. Todd Helton and Arod are having decent seasons, showing significant value. They made this team because their contracts are so huge. Real disappointments at 1b are Carlos Delgado and Chad Tracy. The biggest '09 busts at 3b are Eric Chavez and Garrett Atkins. The other thing to keep in mind is if we are counting all dollars spent towards a player, Daisuke Matsuzaka would be our starting pitcher. Taking a 1/6th prorated portion of the $51,111,111 posting fee the Red Sox paid the Seibu Lions for the rights to negotiate with Dice-K would make him a $17 million loss this season. Last point, the Detroit Tigers have three players who barely missed making the team. Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Dontrelle Willis are all more than 10 million wastes this season.

Now, let's look at the most underpaid "team" of 2009... again, figures in millions (salary / value / net gain)...

C: Joe Mauer, Twins, s: $10.5 / v: $21.3 / ng: $10.8
1b: Adrian Gonzalez, Padres, s: $3 / v: $16.3 / ng: $13.3
2b: Ben Zobrist, Rays, s: $0.4159 / v: $24.2 / ng: $23.7841
SS: Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays, s: $1.1 / v: $18.8 / ng: $17.7
3b: Evan Longoria, Rays, s: $0.55 / v: $20.4 / ng: $19.85
LF: Nyjer Morgan, Nationals, s: $0.4115 / v: $17.3 / ng: $16.8885
CF: Matt Kemp, Dodgers, s: $0.465 / v: $21.9 / ng: $21.435
RF: Justin Upton, D'backs, s: $0.412 / v: $17.5 / ng: $17.088
SP: Tim Lincecum, Giants, s $0.65 / v: $29.6 / ng: $28.95
RP: Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers, s: $1.825 / v: $9.8 / ng: $7.975

Value Over/UnderScutaro and Morgan are certainly surprises on this list, as they barely edged out a couple of superstars at shortstop and left field, respectively. Morgan's real value comes from defense, while Scutaro has combined with Aaron Hill to form the best valued double play combination in the game. Who are the superstars that almost made the team? Hanley Ramirez ($17.2mm) and Ryan Braun ($16.655mm).

Feel free to add thoughts to our comments section. What does this show us? Anything? Who's the biggest disappointment? (Soriano? Lidge?) Biggest pleasant surprise? (Zobrist?) Our methodology of coming up with this list is anything but scientific? Are there any players that should have been mentioned that weren't?

As the great Tony Kornheiser says on PTI, "Over/Under is over!"

Monthly Pulse, August

Yesterday's trading deadline has solidified the rosters of most contenders. We can expect more movement than usual in August trades this season because more teams will be wary of claiming a player on waivers, due to fears of being stuck with their salaries.

Monthly Pulse, AugustThe past few weeks have been extremely impactful, both in performance on the field and transactions outside the lines. Teams in Houston, Florida, plus both Chicago franchises improved their auras in July, while other teams like Seattle, Milwaukee, and the Mets extinguished all glimmers of hope.

Here's our monthly snapshot of what we feel will happen this October...

Playoff Teams
National League
Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, & Cardinals (wc)
American League
Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, & Yankees (wc)

MVP
NL: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
AL: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Monthly Pulse, AugustCy Young
NL: Tim Lincecum, Giants
AL: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays

Rookie of the Year
NL: Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
AL: Elvis Andrus, Rangers

Manager of the Year
NL: Tony LaRussa, Cardinals
AL: Ron Washington, Rangers

Postseason Predictions
NLDS
Cubs over Phillies
Dodgers over Cardinals

NLCS
Cubs over Dodgers
Monthly Pulse, August
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels
Yankees over Tigers

ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees

2009 World Series
Red Sox over Cubs

Divisional At-a-Glance
Please keep in mind, this is part of our running experiment of what we are "thinking" on the first of each month. We will always stick with our Opening Day predictions for any sort of record keeping. This is more of a monthly diary of the soap opera that is major league baseball.

NL East
The Phillies GM, Ruben Amaro Jr, did a fantastic service to the obnoxious fans of Philadelphia. He got them another frontline starter with Cy Young credentials, Cliff Lee, without giving up key prospects Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, or Michael Taylor. This vaults the Phillies to favorites to win the National League again this season, while being competitive for years to come.

The Marlins and Braves have done an admirable job of staying in the hunt. Florida made a nice move acquiring Nick Johnson, from the Nationals. He will help them with his ability to get on base, as well as his ability to get Emilio Bonifacio and his .270 wOBA. The Braves have also been practicing the art of addition by subtraction. They jettisoned Jeff Francoeur and Casey Kotchman out of town and relewgated Kelly Johnson to the bench, in favor of Martin Prado.

Monthly Pulse, AugustThe Mets have truly become an embarrassment. First, the team played lousy ball and never picked up the slack when veterans starting dropping to the DL. Then, Tony Bernazard took his shirt off to challenge the Double-A affiliate to a postgame fight. Finally, in the press conference to announce Tony B's dismissal, GM Omar Minaya acted like a lunatic and accused the Daily News' Adam Rubin of having inpure motives reporting the story, even though the story was true. While the Nationals are the worst club in this division, but they are working to get themselves out of the Jim Bowden hole. Minaya and the Mets seem to be going in the wrong direction.

NL Central
The Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, and Brewers are involved in what could be the best race of the year. We feel the Astros & Brewers may have fallen into the second tier of these teams. Injuries to Berkman and Oswalt may be too much for Houston to overcome. Plus, neither team made any last minute moves to get better. Felipe Lopez was an exciting move by the Brewers, but the Brewers need to get more pitching to improve their standing. Maybe they can find some that gets through waivers. Sorry Cheeseheads, but signing Corey Patterson is definitely not a step in the right direction.

Monthly Pulse, AugustWalt Jocketty & Dusty Baker of the Reds are crazy if they think that Scott Rolen is ever going to play a postseason game for them. We noted in this space last week that he looks horrible. Sure, he's been productive in 88 games this year, with slash numbers of .320/.370/.476. His power has diminished, through injury and aging, so he appropriately only has eight home runs. Anyway, the Reds are too far away from seriously competing. What's worse, they actually gave up a couple of good pitchers in this deal, which is what they actually need. I don't see the Reds being a factor at anytime during the rest of Rolen's career.

NL West
As we've known all season, the Dodgers will win this division. I love the addition of George Sherrill to the bullpen. He and Broxton are going to be incredible together. Against lefties this season, Sherrill's OPS allowed has been a mindboggling .356. Again, that is a .356 On-Base PLUS Slugging. (h/t R.J. Anderson)

Monthly Pulse, AugustThe Giants improved their hitting enough that I think they will finish in second place, ahead of the Rockies, D'backs, and Padres. It's an interesting bit of computations that has baseball prospectus postseason odds showing the Rockies as the most likely team to win the NL Wild Card. Going into Saturday's games, Colorado had a 52% chance of winning the wildcard.

AL East
The titans of industry still reside in the AL East. The Yankees are in first place. Their offense is terrific, and they've been getting marvelous pitching from a variety of places, namely Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Mariano Rivera. I can't say I like the Jerry Hairston trade, but at least they aren't trading the farm for a number 3 or 4 starter.

Boston has struggled lately to score runs, plus they've suffered from poor defense and some inconsistency in the starting rotation. Their recent acquisition of Victor Martinez should help them score runs, but he offers little more than flexibility with the leather. He can allow them to platoon Varitek, Lowell, and Ortiz at the C/3b/DH spot, while having Victor play everyday. On days he plays first, Kevin Youkilis will slide over to third.

Tampa didn't make any moves, but they're the defending champs. They need their starting rotation to carry them on a tremendous hot streak the rest of the way, if they're going to make the playoffs. That means that Scott Kazmir and David Price need to pitch a lot better. I think Price is a better bet to figure it out. Kazmir looks/sounds injured to me.

Monthly Pulse, AugustThe Blue Jays and Orioles aren't in the class of the above three, yet. The O's have the best quadruple-A team in the major leagues. Chris Tillman made his splash last week, and I expect continued success from the, as Harry Caray would say, "tall, handsome, young pitcher".

My instincts tell me that Toronto erred in holding on to Halladay. They won't get as much for him in the offseason, or next year. Hopefully, for them, they'll have a better season next year and have Halladay pitching meaningful games. They have a lot of good pitchers, and should be able to build an offense around Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, Edwin Encarnacion, the Wells/Rios Experience, and power hitting catcher J.P. Arecibia.

AL Central
I've been leaning towards the Twins all year, while still leaving hope for Jimmy Leyland's club in Detroit. In fact, earlier this spring or summer, I went to a baby naming ceremony. At the point of the service where they ask people for anyone that they would like to have blessed, a gentleman who was also there for the baby naming asked the rabbi to bless Jeremy Bonderman. Afterwards, I discussed baseball with this old-school Tigers fan from Detroit.
Monthly Pulse, AugustThe first thing I mentioned to him endearingly was, "I love Jim Leyland." Sorry, that's neither here nor there. I have two reasons to pick the Tigers right now. First, is the chance that Jonah Keri is right, and Jarrod Washburn has reinvented himself with a new pitch and a new attitude, ala Cliff Lee last season.

The Twins' chances took a blow when they lost Kevin Slowey for the season, and that's the second reason I'm predicting the Tigers will finish first. But, I have to consider that this is just Kevin Slowey. He's not really that fantastic. Although it seems extremely unlikely, if Francisco Liriano can have a vintage second half, they'll be in contention the last week of the season.

If I had to pick, I'd say the White Sox will finish in second place. I've never liked them, as you know, but they did get a stud in Peavy. He may not be lights out ever again in his career, but if he can throw, he'll be able to win games. The White Sox also have some potential thunder to call up in September with trade chip Josh Fields and Double-A baby Dayan Viciedo.

Monthly Pulse, AugustThe Indians had an eventful July, retooling their farm system after sending Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez packing, along with Mark DeRosa, Rafael Betancourt, and Ben Francisco. I've been a fan of Justin Masterson for some time now. It'll be nice to see if they give him a chance to start this season. Carlos Carrasco, whom they got from Philadelphia in the Lee deal, should be a starter for them no later than next spring. According to Keith Law, he doesn't have any plus pitches, but he does have three above average pitches.

The Royals so bad... I mean, look at what the Yuniesky Betancourt trade has done to Joe Posnanski.

AL West
The AL West is rapidly becoming a very likeable division. The Angels and Athletics have ruled this land for quite a while. I've always appreciated the Angels National League style of play, as well as the way Mike Scioscia can build a bullpen with nasty boys at the end. The A's, of course, have the Hollywood story of Moneyball and their hotshot GM, Billy Beane, who builds competive rosters (usually) despite miniscule payrolls.

I begun to love rooting for Nolan Ryan and Jack Zduriencik, who are currently running the Rangers and Mariners, respectively. They each have been charged with the daunting task of rebuilding two lousy franchises, and they each have a process I respect.

Ryan has a philosophy on pitching that is different from others in the game. He's protecting his young pitchers, but he also has them strengthen their arms and throw more in the offseason than any team outside of Japan.

Monthly Pulse, AugustJack Z, as he's affectionately called by the supportive Seattle faithful, has a decent payroll budget and a beautiful stadium in Seattle. He unfortunately also inherited Bill Bavasi's roster. As most of you know, Bill Bavasi was probably a worse GM than Jim Bowden. Let us never forget that Bavasi is the guy who gave Carlos Silva 48 million dollars and acquired an over-the-hill Jose Vidro to be his Designated Hitter. Anyway, I digress. Jack Z got my attention and respect when he first assumed the position of GM. He layed out his process and clearly implemented a staff that combines some of the sharpest minds in scouting and sabermetrics. He hired Tom Tango as a consultant, for crying out loud.
What does all of this tell us? Nothing really. It's likely going to be the Yankees and Red Sox battling it out against the Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, or Cardinals. Maybe the best thing about this great game is how even the lousy teams have great stories, great characters. Until we meet again, go cubbies...

Canseco's Claim

So, Jose Canseco has made another "outrageous" statement that will unfortunately probably wind up being true. From ESPN...

"And I'll tell you this, Major League Baseball is going to have a big, big problem on their hands when they find out they have a Hall of Famer who's used."

When asked to name who that Hall of Fame player is, Canseco refused to divulge who he believes it is.
It'll probably be someone who played at the same time as Canseco, or shortly before or after. Let's eliminate Ryne Sandberg, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken, George Brett, and Robin Yount for a variety of reasons.

Hopefully, this will get our comments section a blazin'... the suspects...

Reggie Jackson
Kirby Puckett
Dave Winfield
Gary Carter
Eddie Murray
Dennis Eckersley
Paul Molitor
Wade Boggs
Bruce Sutter
Goose Gossage
Rickey Henderson

I'd say it was Eck or Boggs. I hope it wasn't Rickey, but he was playing at a very advanced age.

Canseco's Claim

Future Stars & Busts

This will be brief. Late last night, I was watching the Blue Jays/Mariners game and rooting for Marc Rzepczynski, who was starting for our fantasy team last night. A few thoughts came to mind that I needed to share with our brilliant readers...

Future Stars & Busts1.) Rzepczynski looks like a very quality prospect. He may not be a fireballer who looks like the next big thing, but he does look like he can battle and throw strikes. He is the perfect example for why the Blue Jays should trade Halladay. They have more than five young starters who can compete in the Major Leagues. If they can get some hitters and more power arms in exchange for Halladay, how could they not be better?

2.) Scott Rolen looks like he doesn't care about anything except not getting hurt. In the second inning, he dropped a throw at third, when there was a chance to get an out with a good tag. An inning later, he executed a perfect Bill Dorn trot towards the ball only to see the Raul Chavez and the ball tumble to the ground a few feet in front of him.

Future Stars & Busts3.) Please don't get me started on Alex Rios.* With runners on the corners and one out in the sixth, Rios decided to play a fly ball off the wall. The infuriating part of this, besides Rios' salary and attitude, is that the ball landed on the warning track before hitting the wall. In other words, he could have caught it.

*For a couple of years, I've been thinking about the dynamics of the Alex Rios/Vernon Wells era in Toronto. Vernon Wells for a while looked like one of the best young players in baseball. Toronto's GM used to have quotes in the paper about how he would get trade offers for Wells on a daily basis. Alex Rios is another five tool outfielder, playing for Toronto as a supposed younger and more polished version of Wells. They both had immense potential and trade value**, and the Blue Jays showed a lot of loyalty to the fans by giving them both big contract extensions. Now, they've become tremendous disappointments with albatross contracts. Really, Vernon Wells' deal is a franchise killer.

**Remember when the rumor was that the Giants were going to trade Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios? Could you imagine if that had gone through? I've been thinking about giving these guys their own post for a couple of months, but I'm worried about keeping it below 10,000 words.

What am I doing right now? Watching Mat Latos and Chris Tillman pitch against the Reds and Royals, respectively. I can't believe that my fantasy team is competing with this rotation...

Future Stars & BustsFelix Hernandez
Tommy Hanson
John Smoltz
David Price
Rick Porcello
Mat Latos
Chris Tillman

The good news from last night is that Jank the Tank dropped Daniel Bard, and we dropped Marc Repczynski to get him back!

Mark? This is Theo...

My written response to this rumor is a bit late, as I first heard it on Sunday... from the very end of Nick Cafardo's lengthy Sunday column...
At this time of year, one takes trade information with a grain of salt, but according to one NL scout, after the Indians turned down Buchholz for Victor Martinez, the Sox countered with a package of Masterson, Michael Bowden, and an outfield prospect. The Indians turned it down.
After waiting a couple of days, I'm just as appalled as I was initially. I cannot imagine passing on an offer of one player (even one as great as Martinez) for two promising young arms like Justin Masterson and Michale Bowden.

Mark? This is Theo...From the little that I've seen, these two pitchers have ground ball and strikeout tendencies that lead to long, successful careers. Perhaps neither of them will be on All Star teams, but they would both be valuable, dependable parts of the Indians rotation for years. Normally you don't want to trade stars for depth because of how rare stars are, but pitching is also the name of the game. I think if you can snag two successful, young starters for a hitter who will be a free agent after next season you pretty much have to go for it.

In fact, my reaction to this rumor makes me feel that the Red Sox never extended such an offer. I really cannot believe that Mark Shapiro would reject such an offer from Theo Epstein.

Please understand, I am a huge fan of Victor Martinez. He was on my roto team for the first few years of his career. The biggest Indians fan is a friend of a friend, named Tractor. He got me excited about Martinez during his rookie year by telling my friend, Weino, something to like: "He's been a batting champion at every level of the minor leagues."

Mark? This is Theo...Unlike most people, I love hyperbole when it comes to scouting prospects. I remember hearing about the Andrew Miller's exploding slider, Mike Pelfrey's heavy fastball, and of course I'm a sucker for the poise of Rick Porcello. There is something about how exaggerated people can get when touting prospects that just seems like fun to me. Have you seen a minor leaguer or amateur player succeed on a field? Why not envision that the player can transfer those skills at the major league level, to even greater success? Heck, I remember seeing Alex Ochoa in A ball, for the Kane County Cougars, and his outfield arm was probably showcased as a hybrid of Roberto Clemente and Andre Dawson.

Anyway, my point is that this was not hyperbole. Tractor wasn't saying that Martinez was a switch-hitting Johnny Bench, or that he had the balanced swing of Mike Piazza, or that he was the Venezuelan Carlton Fisk. Tractor made a factual claim that sounded a bit exaggerated, yet somewhat believable. Sure, I didn't think he won a batting title at every level, but he must've been a top hitter. By consulting the Baseball Cube, we can that Victor Martinez's Batting Averages in the minors included numbers like this...

Mark? This is Theo...2001, High-A, 420 AB's, .329
2002, Double-A, 443 AB's, .336
2003, Triple-A, 274 AB's, .328

His career slash numbers are...

Minor Leagues: .319/.392/.488
Major Leagues: .297/.369/.463

Both of those lines are impressive for any hitter. For a catcher, they are to be treasured and protected. So, I can see the Indians do whatever they can to keep this guy away from the winning organizations that are trying to pry him out of Cleveland. They need to sign him to an extension, and keep him as a cornerstone of their franchise. If they decide to finally trade him while the can, in the next 13 months, I would be very surprised if they get an offer better than Masterson, Bowden, and an outfield prospect.

I guess that's why they play the games, errr I mean follow the rumors?

A few more notes before signing off...

- It was upsetting to see Roy Oswalt take himself out of tonight's game in the second inning. We are hoping for a good diagnosis and quick recovery from whatever was bothering him.

Mark? This is Theo...- According to the Astros' TV announcers, tonight is the eighteenth consecutive Cubs game that Koyie Hill has started at catcher. Are they thinking he can start every game until Soto comes back? I don't think he's due back for another two weeks, at least.

- John Danks, of the White Sox, had a great quote in today's Sun Times: ''It would be kind of cool if we got Halladay and to have him here, that would be special,'' Floyd said Monday, ''but if it was for me that would kind of suck.''

- Astros' relief pitcher, Jeff Fulchino, just lost a Kosuke Fukudome ground ball in his jersey.

Friday's Notepad

Below are a few random thoughts from having free MLB Extra Innings on this Friday afternoon... Starting Pitchers for today's two matinees... Jose Contreras, White Sox @ Justin Verlander, Detroit... and... Aaron Harang, Cincinnati @ Randy Wells, Cubs.

Friday's NotepadTigers' pitching staff, lead by Justin Verlander, should have a strong day against a presumably hung over White Sox team.

Normally, that would be enough for me to expect the Tigers to probably sweep, and at least split today's twin bill. But, with bullpens being so vital to winning double headers, at least the White Sox have everyone fresh. Detroit used Ryan Perry for 2 2/3 perfect innings and international Taiwanese sensation Fu Te-Ni for a perfect 9th.

Reds @ Cubs starts at 1:20 Central Time.

The Reds lineup looks weak; only Joey Votto looks like a tough out.

Edwin Encarnacion is a shadow of his former self, returning from a debilitating wrist injury.

Dusty Bakers designated base clogger is the #7 hitter, Ryan Hanigan. He looks like the second toughest out the lineup, mostly because Brandon Phillips is so walk averse.

Justin Verlander hasn't been perfect, but he's throwing an easy 98 over the black, from the stretch, in the 2nd inning of the early game in the White Sox/Tigers doubleheader.

I wonder is Jose Contreras and Livan Hernandez get along. They're both famous Cuban refugee pitchers who invent pitches, refine grips, and vary arm angles/release points regularly. I'm not looking it up, but I suspect they both spend their offseasons in Miami.

Friday's NotepadMaybe they all go to El Duque's house on NFL Sunday's to watch DirecTV. That would be great, but I have no idea. Maybe they have an unhealthy rivalry, filled with jealousy and spite. I like to think that they get along.

Adam Everett just scored the first run of the game on a Sac fly. I love when guys who "can't hit" produce offensively. I always get the feeling that the manager and GM are thinking to themselves, "Cha-ching!" because when someone like Adam Everett helps on offense, it helps turn the lineup over so much more efficiently. This is not meant to be a knock on Adam Everett in any way. We here feel very strongly that Adam Everett is a guy who's defense is so spectacular that it alone warrants him being an everyday shortstop in the Major Leagues.

Friday's NotepadIn the Top of the 4th, Miguel Cabrera just showed why he's considered and elite hitter, but not one of the very best players in the games. He's camped defensively at first base, when AJ Pierzynski's ground ball sends him diving to his right. Cabrera smothers the ball but throws the ball behind Verlander, who's covering first. Detroit may be leading 1-0, but this looks like an opening that Ozzie Guillen teams traditionally capitalize on.

Hasn't the Cubs' game started, yet? Jeeze.

Walt Jocketty on the Reds' pregame, "I'm not gonna trade the future for a guy we're gonna have for two months." He's right. It doesn't make sense for the Reds to do that, but it's because they're out of it. The way he says it just sounds like sour grapes from the Cardinals' Matt Holliday trade.

Jocketty is also saying that he's hoping to get something done before the deadline. He sounds like he's still acting as a buyer. He's riding the fence, saying that they'll do anything that will help his team this season and in the future. Whatever. (Bias alert!) You're still the old Cardinals' GM, Jocketty, so you're not very well liked over here.

Friday's NotepadOver the Cubs last six games, all on the road, Alfonso Soriano hit .417 with 2 HR's, 4 Runs, and 6 RBI. I think he's getting hot. There have been reports of his demise, and perhaps they've been greatly exagerrated. We'll see. He could go back in the tank with this homestand. With an injured Aramis Ramirez trying his best, but falling short of past skill levels, Cubs fans must hope Soriano can carry them for a couple of weeks, like he used to.

It looks like the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. Maybe Jonny Gomes will make a big impact as a last-minute addition to the lineup.

Randy Wells starts the game by striking Chris Dickerson out looking on a pitch that looked low and outside. The Umpire Effect can have a big effect on this game, if that strike zone continues.

After consecutive singles by Wily Taveras and Votto put runners on the corners, Brandon Phillips grounds into an inning-ending double play! I like to root against him because of the crazy things he's said about On-Base Percentage. Here's a must-read, courtesy of Mr. Joe Posnanski.

Friday's NotepadAramis drove a pitch low and away all the way to the right-center field wall. He's alrady said that his dislocated left shoulder, which I can relate to, is about 80-85%, and he won't be back to 100% until next season. This showing of power reminds me that so much of hitting is based on the swing. Even if Aramis can't drive the ball with the same bat speed as before, he still is just a great hitter, with an outstanding swing.

We've just experienced a little gap in analysis, as I got a little busy with some actual work. Regardless, it looks like I missed a 3-run homerun by Aaron Harang. Thank goodness I missed it; those are very upsetting.

In the American League game, Adam Everett just drove in his 28th RBI of the season. Contreras is still battling, with Octavio Dotel warming up, and a 3-1 deficit in the 7th inning. Life long inspiration, Steve Stone, called the pitch that Everett hit a cutter away that got up.

Sorry, more work...

The Cubs tied it up to make it 3 to 3. Fukudome and Aramis stand out with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI's, respectively.

Okay, that was some more work.......

... and I missed the end of the White Sox game. Who cares? They stink.

Back to the friendly confines......

Friday's NotepadAaron Heilman's appearance inspires absolutely no confidence. He has some of the worst body language I can ever remember. I don't even mean when he's pitching and has runners on base. I mean, right now, he's warming up in the bullpen and it looks like he'd rather be anywhere else.

The Reds broadcast just showed an old clip of Kent Mercker celebrating his no-hitter with Atlanta. They weren't showing it as a parallel to Mark Beurhle's perfect game, but rather because they were discussing mullets. The color man even said, "business in the front, party in the back."

Wow, leading off the bottom of the 6th, Aramis Ramirez just drove a ball into the left field bleachers in a hurry. It was a breaking ball low in the zone. Replay shows Aramis drop the head of the bat, sending a screamer over Jonny Gomes's head.

Following Aramis's heroics, making it 4-3 cubs, it's nice to see Milton Bradley hit a basehit up the middle. He really needs to get it going, as our patience is running thin with him.

The work responsibilities are tugging at my sleeve, so I'm going to have to post this already... Otherwise, this post may never see the light of day. Enjoy the games tonight and this weekend!