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It's too early in the 2011 season to find much meaning in comparing player statistics, especially pitchers, the league leader in Innings Pitched has just 16. Predicting future pitching performance is one of the more challenging tasks for baseball professionals and aficionados.

It can be confusing to truly understand why. The higher likelihood of injuries surely is an issue, but more to the point, the performance of healthy pitchers will vary more from year to year than when compared with batters. During the rigors of a long season, statistically speaking, year-in and year-out ratio statistics do not usually regress toward their career norms as often with pitchers as they do with batters.

Perhaps, the daunting nature of trying to understand everything clouds our minds and blocks our chances at quickly learning something.

First, I noticed that blog favorite, Marc Rzepczynski, has had a particularly effective start to the season in the Blue Jays bullpen.* He's thrown 5.2 innings, facing 18 batters, allowing 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 hbp, and aside from 1 wild pitch, that's it. His with is 0.35, fueled by an unsustainable .083 BABIP. I thought it was comical until I saw how many relievers still have .000 BABIPs.

Rzepczynski loves the 'Pen.

*Yes, if you're scoring at home, this is another SP/RP we're enthralled with. Throw him into the mix with David Hernandez, Aaron Crow, Cory Luebke, and Hisanori Takahashi.

Today, let's head over to Fangraphs to look at batted ball data of pitchers with a minimum of 100 Innings Pitched in 2010 and 2011.

Over the past season + '11, here's the leader board for Line Drive percentage allowed:

Tim Hudson 13.4%
Armando Galarraga 13.5%
Fausto Carmona 13.5%
Jeremy Guthrie 14.2%
Jamie Moyer 14.7%

Now, if you just look at this stat, it's pretty surprising, but it doesn't mean much alone.

For example, even before looking at these numbers, I was thinking to myself that I can't believe the Tigers chose Brad Penny over Armando Galarraga. Seeing Galarraga here is encouraging to that idea, but looking at Penny, he had a 17.8% LD% last year, and only an 11.8% mark in this young 2011 season.

Fausto Carmona really had good peripherals, when considering that he also had a MLB top 35 Infield Flyball Percentage of 11.1%.

Granted, this information is not extremely valuable, we're trying to show how easily anyone can take a closer look at a few basic numbers to determine which pitchers are really outstanding, and which ones have been more fortunate by luck. We can really see how a pitcher is performing when evaluating his LD%, IFFB%, GB%, FB%, HR/FB%, K/9, and BB/9. It may sound daunting, but it really isn't.

Over the course of the season, we'll try to spotlight a few guys who may be new to the scene, or performing in a manner that was unexpected, to see what the peripherals say.

For example, let's look at the talented Orioles southpaw, Zach Britton. We mentioned him on Wednesday in our 20 under 20% post, and Buster Olney had this to say about Britton this morning: "Zach Britton has a chance to become what Stephen Strasburg was last year: Must-see TV. He is a very rare lefty with veering 95 mph fastball."

Although he's only pithed 13.2 innings, let's see what some of his key peripherals say:

Zach's enjoying The Show.

LD%: 23.5%
IFFB%: 25%
GB%: 52.9%
FB%: 23.5%
HR/FB: 0%
K/9: 5.27
BB/9: 3.95

13 innings is nothing; we need A LOT more data to make any sort of conclusions from these ratios. His minor league numbers mean something, but we're trying to keep it simple. I'd say that off this initial perspective, I'd need his K/9 to go up and his BB/9 to come down before putting much hope in Britton being a top of the rotation force.

As always, this space is for the readers, feel free to nominate someone for us to illuminate.

I've been fortunate enough to go to the Knicks/Nets game last Wednesday and the Yankee game this past Saturday. I'm just sharing here, but these were the views from my seats.




I won't bore you with any more incessant blather. Cheers!

Public out of respect announcement: this is a relatively boring and self-centered fantasy baseball "my team is so, blah, blah, blah, ish" rant.

It beats working at Sears.

Patience is, um, a virtue.
Patience is a rare strength.
Patience is a crutch.

The patience discussion should take place at another time.

I almost expect Rotoprofessor to have something to say on that matter soon.

This was a revolt.

The track record asks for patience.

We decided to drop Volstad for Yankee catcher, Russell Martin.

Russell, we got your back.

Not that anyone cares, but this team is different than before. It's still an OBP league, but there are no keepers. Unfortunately, the league counts Runs and RBI, but at least it has SLG instead of HR's. The biggest differences are that it is a head-to-head league, there are no keepers, and there is a max of something like 48 add/drop moves for the entire season.

A limit of add/drop moves for a compulsive add/drop'er, like me, is problematic, to say the least. It's not that I'm worried, but it's definitely an X-factor I've never had to deal with before. I appreciate any advice experienced players have on this MAX-move topic.

Russell Martin can help because the Yankees have a great offense. At the risk of spewing hyperbole, he's rededicated to his craft. He has the ability to get on base and steal a bag. For those in need, Russell Martin gets our full endorsement.

Last season, our highly esteemed 20 under 20% post unearthed such luminaries as Gio Gonzalez, Colby Lewis, and the incomparable Jose Bautista.

Together, we set sail, in search of rare finds that may help any fantasy baseball squad.

The number in parenthesis shows the average ownership % between ESPN and Yahoo leagues. In every case, the percentage was under 20% on both sites.

Kila Ka'aihue, 1b, Royals (15%)
Kila's only batting .176, but with five walks in five games, he's showing patience and awareness in the box that usually lead to better results. I bet you didn't know that he was 13th in the American League in Secondary Average.

Brennan Boesch, OF, Tigers (15%)
Personally, I have yet to be intrigued enough by Brennan Boesch to make him a member of my roto squad, but perhaps I should open my mind to the concept. He's 6 for 12 in this young season, with a home run, which is nice. It's unnerving that he has yet to take a walk, but if we see his patience increase he may be worth a free agent flyer.

Zach Britton, SP, Orioles (14%)

Flavor of the Month: Britton

Much like the division rival Blue Jays, the Orioles keep rolling out more and more young, impressive starting pitching. Scouts and talent evaluators on Twitter were exceedingly complementary during his start a few days ago.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (12%)
Here is a play for Wins and not much else. Nova has a chance to throw six or seven shutout innings any time out, but it's more likely that he'll struggle to get a quality start, not strike out very many opponents, and hopefully get out with a Win. The Yankee offense should support him with at least four runs every time out, so fantasy players could do worse if looking for a fifth or sixth starting pitcher.

Josh Willingham, OF, Athletics (10%)
On one hand, Willingham is faced with the struggle of adapting to a new league and moving into a pitcher's park. Optimistically speaking, he has been a consistent hitter the past five years: .367 OBP, 102 HR's, and a 121 OPS+. He already has two long balls this season, and at age 32 is still getting it done.

Derek Holland, SP, Rangers (10%)

How patient do we have to be?

Maybe if I paid less attention to young prospects, my roto teams would have more successful young pitchers. I usually go for a player about two or three seasons too soon, then sour on him and let someone else in my league reap the returns when the player becomes good. My feeling is that Derek Holland is going to be one of those guys. He burned me pretty good, when I used him as an SP/RP two years ago, and I haven't really thought much about picking him up this year until now.

Will Venable, OF, Padres (7%)
One of the more surprising names on this list is Will Venable at 7%. No doubt that people probably just don't want any Padres, when they're looking for homerun power. If you're in a league that discounts homeruns by counting slugging, total bases, or something, then Venable is certainly worth a look. If your league is specific in the Outfield, with LF, CF, and RF slots, Venable could be increasingly appealing because in some leagues he queslifies at all three positions.

Alexi Ogando, SP, Rangers (6%)
A few hours ago, Buster Olney tweeted something very interesting: "Alexi Ogando was impressive -- and it should be known they got him in Rule 5 draft as OFer for $12 K, based on rec. of scout A.J. Preller." That's a lot in under 141 characters! Sincerely, this Ogando guy looks legit. He was virtually lights out in the bullpen last year, and considering the success they had converting C.J. Wilson from bullpen to starter, I'd give Nolan Ryan, Mike Maddux, and the gang the benefit of the doubt.

Bud Norris, SP, Astros (6%)
Much like Derek Holland, here is a guy I foolishly drafted two years ago only to see his heavy fastball get knocked all over National League ballparks. Is he ready to make the progression to very good major leaguer? Some scouts say 'yes'. Dirty Harry wasn't played by Chuck Norris, but that would have made the line "Are you feeling lucky, punk?" even more apropos.

Aaron Harang, SP, Padres (4%)

The Harangutan likes being back home in S.D.

We profiled Aaron Harang on December 4th, as soon as his hometown Padres signed him to a one-year deal. In that post, we said he could wind up being the best value signing of the offseason. If he succeeds, he could also be the best pickup your team makes this month.

Michael Brantley, OF, Indians (4%)
This option is only for deeper leagues or someone who's really desperate for speed. Brantley could be looking at steady playing time and has an, at times, captivating skill set. The depth of your league's free agent pool should determine if Brantley is someone you should consider, i.e. only if guys like Fowler, Gordon, and Venable are gone.

Mike Leake, SP, Reds (4%)
Leake contributed nicely to rotisserie teams at the beginning of last year before the Reds had to call it a year to save their rookie pitcher from Dusty the Ripper. If you're looking for Wins, Leake could really help out these next couple of months. The Reds are a legitimate contender, and they have looked great so far in this young season.

Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles (4%)
The hype machine propelled Britton ahead of Tillman in the ownership ranks, but this tall and talented right-hander has more experience, may have more job security, and may be more ready for prime time than Britton. Really, if you're looking for Starting Pitching help, see which Orioles pitchers are available and see if one of them is right for your team: Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton, or Guthrie.

Aaron Crow, SP/RP, Royals (2%)

Aaron Crow is maturing in the Show

The legend of Aaron Crow never really materialized the way some people thought it would a few years back. Most of you know the story, but he was drafted with the #9 overall pick by the Nationals in 2008. The two sides never agreed on a contract, so Crow entered the draft again the following year after pitching rather well for the Independent League Fort Worth Cats. The Royals then drafted Crow with the #12 overall pick of the 2009 draft. He was building up to be a starter, but he broke camp this spring with the Major League squad as a relief pitcher. During the infant stages of this season, he has been throwing hard and getting people out. He hasn't walked anyone and already vultured a Win. If SP/RP eligible relievers are as important to you as they are to me, Crow is someone to consider.

Joel Peralta, RP, Rays (2%)
All Spring, I thought that Jake McGee would end up being the closer in Tampa Bay, nut lately my intuition has been telling me that it'll be Peralta. On average, it appears that at least 98% of fantasy players have not come to the same conclusion. If you have the roster space, reward yourself for reading this far into our column, and go get Joel Peralta.

Milton Bradley, OF, Mariners (2%)

Yeah, Milton, you're 'misunderstood'

We know this guy is dead to many fantasy players, and for good reason. Bradley has been a perennial non-content throughout his career, and at times has even been a full-blown quitter. IF, and I stress if, you're in a league that counts OBP, SLG, or OPS, then Milton Bradley could still be a valuable asset. He's hitting in the top half of Seattle's order and will be looking for a solid season, since he'll be needing a new contract next Spring. In his last contract year, three years ago, Bradley lead the American League in OPS.

Casey Blake, 3b, Dodgers (2%)
Shortstop and Third Base may be the most shallow positions of all this season. If you're third baseman is injured or stinking it up, and you don't see anyone of promise in your free agent pool, this usually steady veteran may be reliable enough to maintain his career ratios while hitting something like 19 HR's with 70 or 80 runs and ribbies. Casey Blake is not going to win you your league, but he may ensure that you finish in the money.

Brett Wallace, 1b, Astros (2%)
I don't think we're the only people still holding out hope that Brett Wallace will be a good hitter in this league. We just may be the only people outside of Houston, or even outside of his friends and family, who still have faith. We beat this drum in the preseason, but Wallace has good on-base skills and some raw power that has kept many people wanting more.

Just keep the ball low, Chris.

Chris Volstad, SP, Marlins (1%)
It's surprising that more fantasy players aren't taking their chances with a 6'9" experienced pitcher, on a decent team, that plays its home games in a football stadium. I drafted Volstad for my roster and am very much looking forward to his performance versus Washington this evening.

Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Royals (0%)
Okay, we are way early to the party here, but everyone make a note to keep tabs on this kid. Jeremy Jeffress came to the Royals in the Zack Greinke deal this winter. He's already in the Major League bullpen, and he came in the other night throwing in the upper 90's. He is potentially rosterable in deep leagues right now, but more importantly is a player to pounce on if the Royals decide to trade Joakim Soria after their inevitable mid-summer fall from the top of the standings.

The Almost-1-Week-In look at 2011

Some of this is old news to many people, although we've updated a few points here and there recently. We're simply identifying moments or themes to anticipate and appreciate this baseball season. As usual, we'll have individual awards and postseason predictions. Plus, to make up for our tardiness, this year's season preview will include extra nuggets like the all new Divisional All-Pro teams.

AL East

Big Papi is helping the new guys relax...

Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays

The Wild Card has come out of the AL East every year since 2006, and that trend should continue this year.

... by showing why he's a DH.

The Rays could wind up winning 89 or 90 games and bumping one of the big spenders out of the postseason. In fact, before the season started, coolstandings had the following expected wins in this division:

Rays 91.5
Yankees: 91.3
Red Sox: 85.8
Blue Jays: 81.3
Orioles: 69.9

As for the big-spending rivals fighting with the Rays, fans in Boston are hoping that expensive acquisitions Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez will return them to glory. Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying to win with offense, offense, more offense, a pitching ace, and a sick bullpen.

Buck's O's have got it going on.

In many circles, the cellar of this division is expected to compete at a high level. The Orioles record after hiring Buck Showalter has been well documented, and Toronto has great young pitching. How possible is it that the balance in this division costs the AL East its 5th straight Wild Card?

AL East All-Pro Team
C: Matt Wieters, Orioles
1b: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
2b: Robinson Cano, Yankees
SS: Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
3b: Evan Longoria, Rays
LF: Carl Crawford, Red Sox
CF: Curtis Granderson, Yankees
RF: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
DH: Manny Ramirez, Rays
SP: Jon Lester, Red Sox
RP: Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Ozzie Guillen's got it under control.

AL Central
White Sox
Tigers
Twins
Royals
Indians

Depending on health, any of the top three teams can win the division this year. There are plenty of seats available on the Royals 2013 bandwagon. The Indians have building blocks in Carlos Carrasco, Shin-Soo Choo, and Chris Perez, but they need more consistent help.

AL Central All-Pro Team

Who do you think is the best 3b in the AL Central?

C: Victor Martinez, Tigers
1b: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2b: Gordon Beckham, White Sox
SS: Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3b: Mike Aviles, Royals
LF: Delmon Young, Twins
CF: Alexis Rios, White Sox
RF: Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
DH: Adam Dunn, White Sox
SP: Justin Verlander, Tigers
RP: Joakim Soria, Royals

AL West
Athletics

A's have the best AL pitching

Rangers
Angels
Mariners

The defending pennant champion Rangers and upstart A's have the look of a budding young rivalry. There is too much talent in Anaheim's roster, management, and front office for the Angels to be a nonfactor for long. The Mariners are a big market team, and I think their front office resents the thoughts that, when it comes to their young Ace, Felix Hernandez, they're much like the Cavs holding LeBron before his Decision. It's not going to happen this year, but I really hope this becomes an awesome division, with all four teams worthy of the postseason.

AL West All-Pro Team
C: Kurt Suzuki, A's

Wow, the Rangers' lineup!

1b: Daric Barton, A's
2b: Ian Kinsler, Rangers
SS: Elvis Andrus, Rangers
3b: Adrian Beltre, Rangers
LF: Nelson Cruz, Rangers
CF: Josh Hamilton, Rangers
RF: Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
DH: Bobby Abreu, Angels
SP: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
RP: Neftali Feliz, Rangers

NL East
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
Mets

It's nice when Mets' fans are realistic.

While their starting rotation is not too far from Mt Rushmore status, the Phillies have genuine issues with age, defense, and offense. The Braves or Marlins may challenge for the division or a Wild Card birth. It should, as usual, all come down to pitching and health. The Nationals look like they are about a year, or two, away from something special.* Living in New York, I've grown a bit sympathetic for the recent plight of the Met fan. While Opening Day (or Opening Week - as it said on the grass at Yankee Stadium) is all about hope for every franchise, the best thing I can say about the Mets is that they're getting better. They are in the capable hands of Sandy Alderson, and they will be better. It takes time, and would behoove Mets fans to maintain patience with the Major League club.

Who's this Joe Blanton character?

The Phillies pitching was God's gift to a generation of Philadelphia fans, after they reacquired Cliff Lee this offseason. They will be outstanding if they can stay healthy, but how the Phillies really differentiated themselves is that if one or two of their Aces succumbs to injury, they'll still have two or three Aces for the postseason. The biggest understatement of this post: the Phillies are in really good shape with their rotation. Their question marks begin in the bullpen, where Brad Lidge is hurt again and the rest of the firemen appear unsettled. Those question marks are exacerbated in the lineup. They lost Jayson Werth, and Domonic Brown is hurt. Chase Utley may never be himself again. Ryan Howard may be just a one-sided weapon, or at best an overpaid masher. Jimmy Rollins will probably never contend for another league MVP. The Hawaiian hasn't really been flyin' much lately. Polanco isn't exactly, pardon me, Mike Schmidt in the batters box either.

*The Nationals look like they're going in the right direction. We may only be a couple of years away from a thrilling Nationals vs Royals World Series!

To be more specific on the Braves, they actually have a great chance at winning this division. Tommy Hanson could win the Cy Young this season, and Freddie Freeman looks like the real deal at first base. This team can go far, with their good looking blend of youth and experience. It's like they're the Touch of Gray guy in the commercial!



NL East All-Pro Team

At just 21, Jason Heyward keeps great company.

C: Brian McCann, Braves
1b: Ike Davis, Mets
2b: Dan Uggla, Braves
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3b: Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
LF: Logan Morrison, Marlins
CF: Angel Pagan, Mets
RF: Jason Heyward, Braves
SP: Josh Johnson, Marlins
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves

NL Central
Brewers
Reds
Cardinals
Cubs
Pirates
Astros

I feel like the National League Wild Card is coming out of the Central. It would be more than nice if the Cubs could shock the world and win the World Series this year. That's the plan, right? Right?? Hello?

Let's hope the fans are smiling after a few months.

The Cardinals look like they're getting worse, but with that pitching coach, they could seemingly turn any bum into a 15-game winner. I'm always worried about a few retreads on that staff figuring out how to throw a sinker and destroying the Cubs' season. The Reds currently look like the class of the division, while the Brewers look like the most improved team. Perhaps the division will come down to the comparative performances of guys like Fielder and Votto, Axford and Chapman. My initial feeling is that Zack Greinke is the key. His performance could decide Milwaukee's baseball fate this season.

The Pirates are and exciting team, and folks in Houston were really excited by the Astros at the end of last season. For the Astros to make one of their patented 2nd half runs, they'll need excellence from Brett Myers, health from Wandy, steady contribution from Hunter Pence, a return to form from Carlos Lee, and a leap in performance from new first baseman Brett Wallace.

After considering all the evidence, the Cubs could finish in first or last place this year, with indicators sadly pointing towards not 1st place.

NL Central All-Pro Team
C: Geovany Soto, Cubs
1b: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2b: Rickie Weeks, Brewers
SS: Starlin Castro, Cubs
3b: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
LF: Ryan Braun, Brewers
CF: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
RF: Jay Bruce, Reds
SP: Zack Greinke, Brewers
RP: Carlos Marmol, Cubs

How good will Tulo be?

NL West
Giants
Rockies
Padres
Dodgers
Diamondbacks

The Wild West was a lot of fun last year and is star studded again, with the World Champs, the Blake Street Improvement Project, the young arms of the Padres, and the Hollywood guys. Kevin Towers and Kirk Gibson ought to have the D'Backs playing the right way soon, winning eventually. Interestingly, after the Adrian Gonzalez trade with Boston, the NL West's premier first baseman is either 37-year old Todd Helton or rookie Brandon Belt.

NL West All-Pro Team
C: Buster Posey, Giants
1b: Todd Helton, Rockies
2b: Kelly Johnson, D'backs
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
3b: Pablo Sandoval, Giants
LF: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
CF: Matt Kemp, Dodgers
RF: Justin Upton, D'backs
SP: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
RP: Brian Wilson, Giants

What's your  Super Bowl XLV memory?

AL Manager of the Year
Ozzie Guillen
Of all the silly things to try to predict six months ahead of time, few are sillier than a Manager of the Year award. This must be done in retrospect, looking at who dealt with adversity and success the best.

AL Comeback Player
Erik Bedard
Double-digit wins should lock this up for the southpaw.

AL Rookie of the Year
Jeremy Hellickson
Hellickson was like a shutdown machine from the future, when in the rotation last year. After judicious study and consideration, it's prudent to expect more success.

AL Cy Young
Felix Hernandez
It's likely that Seattle's ace may never pitch better than he has the past two years, but the status quo for the 25-year old Ace is still mighty regal.

"It's already been broughten!"

AL MVP
Robinson Cano
What's not to like about the in-his-prime, slick hitting and fielding, middle of the order middle-infielder from the Bronx Bombers? Picking MVP's before the season starts is like trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

NL Manager of the Year
Tony LaRussa
Ugh, the detestable know-it-all has already faced adversity in Spring Training by getting engulfed in Pujols contract drama and losing his ace pitcher for the season. If the Cardinals have another fine season, the Post-Dispatch guys will be getting Prof. La Russa's virtual honorary degrees lined up.

NL Comeback Player
Pablo Sandoval
Check it: Kung-Fu Panda is back, lighter, and better than ever.

NL Rookie of the Year
Brandon Belt
If Andrew Cashner* winds up winning this award, then the Cubs' may have a good season. I'll root for that.

*Editor's note: This is already a bad sign for the season, as Cashner was removed in the 6th inning of his first Major League start, with tightness in his shoulder.

Who else likes Kershaw for the Cy?

NL Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw
Gallardo, Jimenez, Greinke, Lincecum, Carpenter, Cain, Josh Johnson, Tim Hudson, and others will undoubtedly make this a fun competition again this season. Few things get me as jazzed as talking pitching.

NL MVP
Albert Pujols
For the record, I hope the Cubs do not sign Pujols. If they get him, I'll root for him. It's just that I think he will be grossly overpaid for the last 3, 4, or 5 years of his contract, to the extent of being an albatross. He seems a bit older than he lets on, too.

AL Division Series
Yankees over White Sox
Athletics over Red Sox

NL Division Series
Phillies over Reds
Brewers over Giants

ALCS
Athletics over Yankees

NLCS
Phillies over Brewers

World Series
Athletics over Phillies
(Series MVP: Kurt Suzuki)

I bet Vegas doesn't even have a line on Kurt Suzuki for World Series MVP.

We've really taken to this free-flowing style of writing, since clearing our notebook a couple of days ago.

Before we get to any reading, a quick heads-up, our next rotoprofessor post should probably be posted sometime this evening, but I really don't know.

Spring Training is just about over. Teams are packing up their equipment and shipping them back their cities. The six/seven month odyssey that professionals in baseball endure each year can be trying, rewarding, and undoubtedly life-changing. As the 25-man rosters are getting set around the land, many players are losing their jobs or being forced to go to the Minor Leagues for more seasoning. This moment in time reminds me of the Jackson Brown description of life on the road:

We got time to think of the ones we love
While the miles roll away
But the only time that seems too short
Is the time that we get to play

Okay, as the first of many digressions, leading off...

Nice reaction, dude.

Did anyone notice that the Mariners cut Josh Wilson? He's not much of a hitter, but he's always been sure handed. We live in a world with a shortage of capable Major League shortstops, so he should have at least a suitor.

Where will Josh Wilson land?

The Cubs have a whole at 2nd base... it would be great to see them try to improve their defense, but Wilson is almost an automatic out. As a fan, I hope the Cubs pass. St. Louis has a bunch of junk sharing the infield with Pujols. Maybe they'll be interested. I could see a reuniion with the Pirates if they choose to cut ties with Ronny Cedeño and bring back an old team leader. I guess outside of Wilson's agent, friends, and family, I'm basically the only person in the world who cares about this right now, so let's just move on.

*~*~*~*~*~*

No pressure, but we're all counting on you!

For all you innings counters out there, Andrew Cashner's workload will be monitored this year. The most innings he's ever thrown in a season were the 111 he threw last year

While it does matter the number of pitches and effort per inning, we can expect that Cashner won't get much beyond 120 or 130 innings this season.

*~*~*~*~*~*

Who is the one current set up man who looks likely to become the new closer of his team? I think to be thorough, we have to say that these are the closer/setup men for each team:

Orioles: Gregg/Uehara
Red Sox: Papelbon/Bard/Jenks
Yankees: Rivera/Soriano
Rays: McGee/Farnsworth/Peralta
Blue Jays: Francisco/Rauch/Dotel/Frasor
White Sox: Thornton/Santos/Sale
Indians: Perez/Sipp/Perez

Walden is ready to roll.

Tigers: Valverde/Benoit
Royals: Soria/Tejeda
Twins: Nathan/Capps
Angels: Rodney/Walden
A's: Bailey/Fuentes/Balfour
Mariners: Aardsma/League
Rangers: Feliz/Ogandi
Braves: Kimbrel/Venters
Marlins: Nuñez/Hensley
Mets: K-Rod/Parnell
Phillies: Lidge/Madson/Contreras
Nationals: Storen/Clippard
Cubs: Marmol/Wood
Reds: Cordero/Chapman
Astros: Lyon/Lopez
Brewers: Axford/Saito
Pirates: Hanrahan/Meek
Cardinals: Franklin/Motte
D'backs: Putz/Hernandez/Gutierrez/Demel
Rockies: Street/Lindstrom/Betancourt
Dodgers: Broxton/Kuo

All it takes is a little muscle tweak from Huston Street to make Matt Lindstrom relevant again.

Padres: Bell/Adams/Gergerson
Giants: Wilson/Romo/Casillas

Now, that we've thought it through, we feel the most promising ones are Bard, Walden, Madson, League, Matt Lindstrom, Wilton Lopez, (maybe Chapman), and Fuentes or Balfour. I sense a new poll coming soon.

*~*~*~*~*~*

It sounds like Mike Scioscia is leaning towards starting Howie Kendrick at 1st base a lot, while Kendry Morales is out, leaving Mark Trumbo out of the lineup. Kendrick, who normally plays 2nd base would have an infield of Macier Izturis, Erick Aybar, and Alberto Callaspo around the horn. I don't see where the offense is going to come from in that lineup with Wells, Hunter, Abreu, and Mathis providing the rest of the pop.

*~*~*~*~*~*

Opening Day makes Arnold Jackson feel like Christmas.

The excitement of Opening Day is palatable. I get about as excited as a hid on Christmas Eve. In fact, I think I get more excited than Arnold Jackson looks in the Christmas picture to the left. Opening Day harbors all the feelings of hope and renewal that each new day, new year, and morning is really supposed to bring to humanity. For me, it just happens more on Opening Day than January 1st, Easter, or the first day of Spring.

Someone else who should be looking towards Opening Day is one of our favorite Canadian ballplayers. Yes, we're talking about Justin Morneau. He was having an excellent first half to the season last year, before a terrible concussion knocked him out for the year. In fact, he was unable to do baseball activities during most of the offseason because of his concussion problems. They can be a very scary injury, and we hope for the best. For what it's worth, Morneau recently says that he's feeling much better. It would be great to see him come back and put up more Jimmie Foxx type numbers.

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Getting back to the closer/setup-man discussion for a moment again, maybe Joaquin Benoit of the Tigers is a good bet for full-time closer this year. In this Dave Birkett piece, we hear that Jose Valverde's arm hurt for much of last season. Jim Leyland gives him credit for not complaining, but it'll be fans and fantasy owners complaining if Valverde ends up on the DL this year.

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Carlos Carrasco yesterday against the spring training Cubs pitched six innings, allowing one run to score on three hits, with no walks and five strikeouts.

Carrasco went to Cleveland, without much else, in the Cliff Lee deal. If he doesn't return some success to the Tribe, they could be looking at a disastrous trade in retrospect.

If you're in a deep roto league, now may be a good time to beat your friends to Carlos Carrasco.

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Getting back to the Tigers for a second, it's unclear whether the Motor City has V-Mart Fever, but Lynn Henning reports the the Tigers are seeing a surge in season ticket sales. It looks to be an entertaining summer for baseball fans in Detroit. Best of luck to them defeating the unpleasant South Siders.

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Hey, you're not Barry!

I don't really think the details of this Barry Bonds trial are exciting enough right now to scream "Screenplay!", but we all know that one day or another we will be watching this unfold like Eight Men Out did about 69 years after the Black Sox scandal.

Personally, I thought the initial reporting on the Balco discovery was fascinating, while these trial stories are quite boring. I still read them, though. Mostly for quotes to extract that probably no-one finds funny but me, quotes like: "At the defense table, Bonds was spotted trying to hide a grin."

In closing, I'm reminded of a silly joke:

-- Why does California have so many lawyers and New Jersey has so many toxic waste dumps?
-- Because New Jersey had first choice.

Thank you! Tip your waitress. We'll be here all week.

Awesome reader Gavin emailed a question in today. He writes...

In a real simple season long pool. All it is, is u take 20 pitchers, u get 1 point per win and whoever has the most accumulated wins at the end wins.

Have you seen the Halladay/Ruiz ad?

Any suggestions on the 20 (particularly sleepers)?

People can own the same guy, so likely everyone will own CC, Halladay etc.

I'm not going to spend much time shouting about why predicting pitcher wins is such a crapshoot.

Briefly, it's so unpredictable because luck and unknown future circumstances are such key factors to pitching results, especially with Wins. Not only does a pitcher have to pitch relatively well, on average, but he must also receive enough support from the team's offense, defense, and bullpen to gain a Win.

He may not look like it here, but Felix is the King

As a recent example, simply look at how well Felix Hernandez pitched in 2010 to win 13 games, compared with how much worse John Lackey or Jon Garland pitched winning 14.

To really do the work, it would be important to factor in a team's projected run support, and maybe assign some value to their team defense projections - if there are such things.

Keeping things simple, what I did for Gavin was averaged out the projected Win totals from Bill James, ZiPS, Marcel, RotoChamp, and Fangraphs fan crowd-sourcing.

Here are the results, remember this is just for pitcher Wins - not overall roto value, in a Top 50 format...

1. Roy Halladay: 18 wins
2. C.C. Sabathia
3. Jon Lester: 17 wins
4. Justin Verlander: 16 wins
5. Tim Lincecum
6. Cliff Lee
7. Ubaldo Jimenez: 15 wins
8. Felix Hernandez
9. David Price
10. Zack Greinke: 14 wins
11. Matt Cain
12. Dan Haren
13. Jered Weaver
14. Roy Oswalt
15. Tommy Hanson
16. Cole Hamels
17. John Danks: 13 wins
18. Clay Buchholz
19. Clayton Kershaw
20. Josh Johnson
21. Francisco Liriano
22. Tim Hudson
23. Ricky Romero
24. John Lackey
25. Yovani Gallardo
26. Chad Billingsley
27. Trevor Cahill
28. Max Scherzer
29. Colby Lewis: 12 wins
30. Ted Lilly
31. C.J. Wilson
32. Derek Lowe
33. Phil Hughes
34. Mark Buerhle
35. Carl Pavano
36. Ricky Nolasco
37. Matt Garza
38. Randy Wolf
39. Gavin Floyd
40. Gio Gonzalez
41. A.J. Burnett: 11 wins
42. Carlos Zambrano
43. Anibal Sanchez
44. Dallas Braden
45. Josh Beckett
46. Randy Wells
47. Wade Davis: 10 wins
48. Brett Myers
49. Clayton Richard
50. Brett Anderson

Here is a quote I read that struck me as a poignant piece of advice to writers, particularly if you're like me and you have an idea, think about it, read about it, maybe write a little bit about it, then leave it. And, it never comes back to life. I was telling my friend, Josh, the other day, when he asked me how the ol' blog was coming along that it's frustrating to start something and not finish it. I told him I was sitting on over 3,000 words about Albert Pujols. Yeah, believe it or not, with all the sometimes pointless junk that gets posted on this space, I do occasionally censor myself out of pure boredom and insignificance. Okay, before I abandon this piece, here is the quote, taken from the fascinating Still on the Road, by Clinton Heylin.

"The thing to do, as soon as you get into [writing], is to realize you must get out of it. And unless you get out of it quickly and effortlessly, there's no use staying in it. It will just drag you down. You could be spending years writing the same song, telling the same story, doing the same thing... The best songs to me - my best songs - are songs which were written very quickly... Just about as fast as it takes to write it down is about as long as it takes to write it."
--- Bob Dylan, to Paul Zollo, January 1991

Heylin's two-part series, Revolution in the Air and Still on the Road, are must-have's for anyone interested in poetry and/or songwriting.

We're using the excerpt here as an suggested device to lose some inhibitions and clear the notebook, even if there is no point or conclusion to the thought. It's been about 20 months since we've cleared the notebook, and away we go...

Leading off, who is the best Shortstop in the American League? There are a couple of weeks left to vote in the poll, if you haven't already, at the top of the page. We nominated Andrus, Asdrubal, Jeter, Alexei, and grouped everyone else. The poll results are not surprising, but a few numbers I looked at were hard to believe.

Apparently, when considering a players' wOBA, Power/Speed Number, WAR from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, OPS+, and UZR, for the past season and the past three seasons, then factor in the wOBA projection from Marcel, the rankings are as such:

Perhaps, we should expect more from Jed Lowrie.

1. Jed Lowrie
2. Derek Jeter
3. Alexei Ramirez
4. Yunel Escobar
5. Marco Scutaro
6. Cliff Pennington
7. Asdrubal Cabrera
8. Erick Aybar
9. Elvis Andrus
10. Orlando Cabrera

Anyway, I thought that was really interesting, especially for Red Sox Fans. This is a pretty cockamamie formula, but I was considerate enough to give some numbers more weight than others, as well as average the Power/Speed per 600 PA's to try to make everything a rate stat.

Mike Aviles, who's not a Shortstop for the Royals but could probably still play there, ranked 4th in between Alexei and Yunel.

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I'm glad the Cubs cut their losses and won't be wasting any real innings on Carlos Silva. What worries me is that maybe there's some truth to his griping that Mark Riggins, and/or presumably Mike Quade, hadn't earned his respect. I do not have Silva's back. I never wanted him on the team, but I'm just worried that the Cubs are running the show with what some people view is a Triple-A manager, a minor league pitching instructor. More importantly, are there pitchers on the staff who feel that way? I'm going to try not to worry about it. Quade is earning more points than demerits in my book lately.

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Late, Late Pick Pitching Projections
Just in case any of these guys are on your fantasy radar, here are a few projections numbers we put together:

Carlos Carrasco (ADP: 318)
Bill James: 159 ip, 4.47 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.42 WHIP
Marcel: 85 ip, 4.45 ERA,7.0 K/9, 1.39 WHIP
ZiPS: 173.6 ip, 4.87 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 1.45 WHIP

Justin Masterson (ADP: 386)
Bill James: 180 ip, 4.10 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.41 WHIP
Marcel: 148 ip, 4.23 ERA,7.4 K/9, 1.39 WHIP
ZiPS: 183.3 ip, 4.37 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 1.44 WHIP

Andrew Cashner (ADP: n/a)
Marcel: 52 ip, 4.24 ERA,8.0 K/9, 1.38 WHIP
ZiPS: 68 ip, 3.84 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.41 WHIP

Wade Davis (ADP: 326)
Bill James: 163 ip, 4.09 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.38 WHIP
Marcel: 148 ip, 4.01 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 1.31 WHIP
ZiPS: 177.3 ip, 4.52 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 1.42 WHIP

Cory Luebke (ADP: n/a)
Marcel: 60 ip, 3.98 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.32 WHIP
ZiPS: 124.3 ip, 4.71 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 1.42 WHIP

Erik Bedard (ADP: 378)
Bill James: 66 ip, 3.55 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.27 WHIP
Marcel: 68 ip, 3.71 ERA,7.9 K/9, 1.28 WHIP
ZiPS: 55.3 ip, 3.58 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 1.30 WHIP

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From the non-News department, Kerry Wood is throwing a cut fastball. He started throwing it a long time ago, and learned much of how to throw it last season, working with Mariano Rivera. Like I said, it's not news, but it's been on my mind, and I think as Cubs fans there are few things to genuinely be excited about. The 8th and 9th innings, with a lead, could be a lot of fun this season.

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Bob Dylan (to Leonard Cohen): "How long did it take you to write 'Hallelujah'?"
Cohen: "About two years... How long did it take you to write 'I and I'?"
Dylan: "Fifteen minutes."

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To wrap things up, we will foreshadow the sharing of some terrific stories from the Negro Leagues. It's been an interest for most of my life and I've been exposed to more literature lately, so how could I not share it with the five or six of you who have gotten to this point in this rambling essay.

Two prizes, please comment, which version is better? The first or second? Thanks!