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Have You Seen Dan Vogelbach?

Chicago Cubs 2nd Round pick, Dan Vogelbach, is an 18-year old first baseman from Bishop Verot High School in Florida.

Looking at the MLB site of the Cubs' Draft, we see Vogelbach is listed at 250 lbs, and he won't turn 19 until December. Holy Cow.

Keith Law's concise write up (sub req'd) states:
"Dan Vogelbach will be a fan favorite ("Heavy D" seems to be the obvious nickname) if he makes it to the majors as a super-sized left-handed hitter with power to match and no defensive value whatsoever."
Avoiding stats for the moment, check this out...



Our tumblr will soon host a photo tribute to MLB's new Heavy D.

My Own Private Mississippi

This was an interesting weekend. One of my best friends, Colonel Mustard, visited with his lady-friend, Honey Mustard, on Friday night. We went to an outstanding new Thomas Keller restaurant in the Lower East Side called CO-OP Food and Drink. It's really a tasty dining experience. I'm not real friends with Keith Law, but he reads routinely checks his inbox. I should probably recommend Co-Op to him for the next time he's in New York.

On Saturday morning, I drove to the Lehigh River, in the Poconos*, which oddly reminds me...

*Early memory: watching 'The Newlywed Game' (or worse), and someone won a trip to the Poconos. I was about 10 years old, or so, at the time, and thought the Poconos sounded exotic, like Tahiti. So, I thought that was an exotic prize. Looking back now? Please, I'd rather be in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin.

My Own Private Mississippi
Anyway, one of those odd things that sticks with you is what the weirdo announcer said something like "You can't pick your nose in the Poconos." I think it's because one of the questions in the game was something about an embarrassing habit, or something, and the guy admitted to picking his nose a lot.

Regardless, what a mundane thing to never forget. Twenty years later and I'm still scarred. We should come up with a list of the ten dullest things we've remembered for at least 12 years.

We can discuss the rest of Memorial Day 2011 another time. Quickly, the reason we're here tonight is to amend our Happy Birthday post to Bob Dylan from last week. I listed my 100 favorite Dylan songs but failed to mention Mississippi.

No excuses, just sorry, it should be in the Top 25 area... Again, here's a link to our Top 100. Well, maybe we should take it easy with the apologies. I mean, it's not like Dylan's Mississippi is an all-time favorite of millions of fans. It's a more recent song, from Love and Theft. He has played it live, as the video below will show, but the official Dylan website says he's never played it live.

Please enjoy at your leisure, lyrics after the jump...





Mississippi

Every step of the way we walk the line
Your days are numbered, so are mine
Time is pilin’ up, we struggle and we scrape
We’re all boxed in, nowhere to escape

City’s just a jungle; more games to play
We’re trapped in the heart of it, tryin’ to get away
I was raised in the country, I been workin’ in the town
I been in trouble ever since I set my suitcase down

Got nothin’ for you, I had nothin’ before
I don’t even have anything for myself anymore
Sky full of fire, pain pourin’ down
There’s nothing you can sell me, I’ll see you around

All my powers of expression and thoughts so sublime
Could never do you justice in reason or rhyme
Only one thing I did wrong
Stayed in Mississippi a day too long

The devil’s in the alley, mule’s in the stall
Say anything you wanna, I have heard it all
I was thinkin’ ‘bout the things that Rosie said
I was dreaming I was sleepin’ in Rosie’s bed

Walkin’ through the leaves, falling from the trees
Feelin’ like a stranger nobody sees
So many things that we never will undo
I know you’re sorry, I’m sorry too

Some people will offer you their hand and some won’t
Last night I knew you, tonight I don’t
I need somethin’ strong to distract my mind
I’m gonna look at you ’til my eyes go blind

I got here followin’ the southern star
I crossed that river just to be where you are
Only one thing I did wrong
Stayed in Mississippi a day too long

Well my ship’s been split to splinters and it’s sinkin’ fast
Drownin’ in the poison, I got no future, got no past
But my heart is not weary, it’s light and it’s free
I’ve got nothin’ but affection for all those who’ve sailed with me

Everybody movin’ if they ain’t already there
Everybody got to move somewhere
Stick with me baby, stick with me anyhow
Things should start to get interestin’ right about now

My clothes are wet, they’re tight on my skin
Not as tight as the corner that I painted myself in
I know that fortune is waitin’ to be kind
So give me your hand and say you’ll be mine

Well, the emptiness is endless, cold as the clay
You can always come back, but you can’t come back all the way
Only one thing I did wrong
Stayed in Mississippi a day too long

Copyright © 1997 by Special Rider Music


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Drop the Kid, Take the Cannoli

One line that has always stayed with me is oddly lovable and disarming Clemenza's "Leave the gun, take the cannoli."

The following video is not at all reminiscent of any moments in The Godfather, but non sequitur seem to be all the rage this year.

It's actually a terrible father dropping his kid to drop a foul ball.



The Dodgers are having a dreadful year.

Looking for Arms

Sorry we've been silent all week over here. Last weekend, I started a research exercise on players by age yet have gaps in the under 23 and over 33 groups. We still share some of our favorite photos, books, and films, and songs over on our tumblr. As for the writing element of our blog, we can thank writer's block for this:

Looking for Arms
Step it up, 'czynski!
If you're a real-life GM, or like us in fantasy baseball, you're probably looking for some pitching. With different rules from league to league, we'll utilize our competitive 12-team H2H league as a case study. It would appear that we could replace Marc Rzepczynski, whom we picked up a few weeks ago, and according to our team log, he's appeared in 6 games for us with no wins, no saves, 3 strikeouts, a 3.86 ERA, and 1.93 WHIP over 4 2/3's innings.

Below are available players, from our 12-team H2H league.

Jake Arrieta
Baltimore Orioles
Some thoughts:
As Mike Podhozer wrote last week, "He has posted a 3.74 xFIP so far, with a 4.03 ERA. Given my expectation for a decline in his K/9, I think his ERA should settle right around 4.00 where he currently sits. Though that would mean this is not a major breakout, it is a definite improvement from last season. Still, I think that would earn him only minimal shallow mixed league value, if any at all." He may not be available in my league much longer, especially when looking at a few numbers...
Some stats: 8.26 K/9, 3.98 BB/9, .263 BABIP, 6.56 rZIPS K/9

Carlos Carrasco
Looking for Arms
They got him for Cliff Lee, so we're
not the only ones expecting a lot.
Cleveland Indians
Some thoughts:
He was on our team earlier this year for 14.3 innings in 3 starts. Like Rzepczynski, he was unable to produce a win, while accumulating an unimpressive 10 strikeouts, 4.41 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP. Still, the Indians are hot, and their offense should maintain its output when its best players, Choo and Santana, start producing.
Some stats: 6.5 rZIPS K/9, 4.91 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Jordan Lyles
Looking for Arms
Lyles is just a kid soaking it all in.
Houston Astros
Some thoughts:
Anyone who's read a few of our posts knows we're suckers for highly touted prospects, and the 20-year old Lyles fits that bill. He has been the Astros' #1 prospect for a while. I'd like to pick him up because he'll pitch twice this week, and they are both good matchups. The cruddy Cubs face him on Tuesday night, and on Sunday, he'll take the mound in the pitcher's paradise of Petco Park. WGN's venerable Tom Skilling is reporting that the wind will still be blowing out, or at least out towards right field tomorrow night. I'd rather not have a 20-year old pitcher taking the mound at Wrigley with 15-25 MPH winds blowing towards the right field bleachers.
Some AAA stats: 6.25 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 3.20 ERA, 3.49 FIP

Paul Maholm
Looking for Arms
Maholm'll be good on the Yankees
Pittsburgh Pirates
Some thoughts:
This guy has never really been under consideration for us because the Pirates have stunk for 18 years, and Maholm is not an overpowering strikeout machine. we're looking know for a few reasons. He has a career high 6.11 K/9, four positive value pitches, and a distinct possibility he may be traded to a contender in about six weeks.
Some stats: 52.5 career GB%, .256 BABIP, 3.18 ERA, 3.39 FIP

A couple of SP/RP's...

Cory Luebke
San Diego Padres
Some thoughts:
We've liked this guy since Opening Day, and he has been very good so far. As Mike Axisa wrote on May 27th, "The lone lefty in San Diego’s bullpen, Luebke is more than just a specialist and he could move back into the rotation before season’s end. His ERA (4.21) will look better once his strand rate (59.4%) normalizes."
Some stats: 9.47 K/9, 44.4 GB%, 2.48 FIP, HR/FB 4.2%

Daniel McCutchen
Looking for Arms
McCutchen throwing a splitter
Pittsburgh Pirates
Some thoughts:
He does not strikeout nearly enough batters, or else he'd already be on our team. Most of his success should be attributed to the weak contact he generates from his effective slider and chance of pace split finger.
Some stats: 4.43 K/9, 0.40 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.46 FIP

This is our first year in this league, and there is a 45-move limit. As someone who would normally end seasons around the 175 mark, it's been rough. We actually only have 19 moves left, with roughly 65% of the season left to play. For now, we'll resist the temptation* to acquire Arrieta, Lyles, Maholm, or McCutchen, rolling with Repczynski, hoping to vulture a few wins along the way.

*We'll try to resist the temptation for at least a week, or two.

Next Big Hitting Debuts

Over the past three weeks, we've seen the MLB debuts of Eric Hosmer, Brandon Guyer, Julio Teheran, Jose Iglesias, Pete Kozma, and about nine other guys. Baseball-Reference, of course, keeps a record of Major League debuts by season. Here's the link that takes you to 2011.

Who are the next, most exciting prospects to expect in the coming weeks and months?

Jesus Montero, Yankees
Age: 21, Pos: DH/C Level: AAA
Next Big Hitting DebutsIt doesn't help Jorge Posada's case in the Bronx, when team management sees a budding power hitter with a .317/.356/439 triple-A batting line. The eam could want to see some more slugging out of Montero before asking him to replace a lifetime Yankee and future Hall of Famer, but it's clear that Brian Cashman knows what he has in Montero. (Just look at the way he's staring at him in the photo.)
Other stats: .339 wOBA, 119 OPS+, 4.67 RC/27

Mike Trout, Angels
Age: 20, Pos: CF Level: AA
Most have Trout as the #1 prospect in baseball, so his name should begin to sound more and more familiar. His production this season has been fantastic. He's sporting a .314/.408/.550 triple-slash line, with 7 doubles, 4 triples, 6 HR's and 9 SB's. Since I can be an impatient person, I'm really hoping he gets to the big leagues this season.
Other stats: .404 wOBA, 152 OPS+, 5.13 RC/27, BB:K 22:27

Dustin Ackley, Mariners
Next Big Hitting Debuts
Age: 23, Pos: 2b Level: AAA
Ackley has worked to develop his power, and early indications this season have been better than we expected. After just 7 HR's in 587 plate appearances between Double and Triple A last year, Ackley has already popped 6 homers in 214 PA's this year. His patience has always been excellent (108:104 BB:K career), so he'll be a good Major League hitter. If he develops 20+ Homerun power at 2nd base, he could be a perennial All Star.
Other stats: .346 wOBA, 15.4% BB%, 11.7% K%

Mike Moustakas, Royals
Age: 22, Pos: 3b, Level: AAA
Much of the Future Star talk this Spring Training this year surrounded Moustakas and Hosmer. In quick fashion, like a little coming out party at Yankee Stadium, Hosmer showed he belonged in The Show. It won't be long before Moustakas is manning the opposite side of the diamond for the Royals. My main man, Wilson Betemit, has been hitting the ball very well lately. In a few weeks, I could see the Royals trading him somewhere for someone's 15th best prospect, or something, to open the door for the Moustakas rapture.
Other stats: .364 wOBA, 111 OPS+, 21% LD%

Manny Machado, Orioles
Next Big Hitting Debuts
Age: 18, Pos: SS, Level: A
We'll probably have to wait at least two or three years before Machado plays in Baltimore, but his start this season has been outstanding. Again, he plays shortstop, is only 18, and is hitting .333/.450/.611, with 5 HR's and a 19:14 BB:K ratio.
Other stats: 25 games, 30 hits

Right here, we were going to mention Shelby Miller as a pitcher we think is very exciting and close to the big leagues. Instead, we decided that since he's only 20 years old, and he's still in the Cardinals' organization, this will be a hitter only post. Are there any other MLB debuts that you're looking forward to? Please let us know if the comments, thanks!

Why Not Travis Banwart?

The Oakland A's rotation has taken a big hit in the last few days. We've been picking the A's to win this year since the start of the season. They lost Dallas Braden for the season over a month ago. In the past couple of days, they lost Tyson Ross and Brandon McCarthy.

For details on their injuries and potential replacements, check out Joe Stiglish's article in the San Jose Mercury News to this SB Nation article by David Fulcillo, this aptly titled Billy Frijoles piece on Athletics Nation: 'Possible Fill-Ins for Tyson Ross AND BRANDON MCCARTHY !#@%!@#$!@#$.'

Why Not Travis Banwart?
Get well soon, Brandon!
Among other things, we learn "The primary candidates listed are Josh Outman, Guillermo Moscoso and Graham Godfrey."

I looked at the Baseball-Reference page for the Sacramento River Cats, where I found a viable fourth candidate: Travis Banwart.

This chart is from Baseball-Reference...

Rk IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
5 Josh Outman* 37.2 1.726 9.1 1.4 6.5 7.2 1.11
4 Travis Banwart 46.0 1.000 6.8 1.0 2.2 7.6 3.55
3 Guillermo Moscoso 40.1 1.215 8.0 0.2 2.9 9.6 3.31
2 Graham Godfrey 33.1 1.110 7.6 0.5 2.4 8.4 3.44
21 Players 378.1 1.306 8.2 0.7 3.6 8.4 2.35
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/21/2011.

Outman's control has been terrible, but Billy Frijoles of Athletics Nation says that's to be expected coming off surgery. Moscoso and Outman are already on the 40-man rosters, so it is easier for the team to recall them. Purely thinking from a non-business perspective and looking at their baseball numbers suggest that Banwart and Godfrey should get a chance.

In conclusion, here are a few more interesting triple-A statistics pulled from their First Inning player pages.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
Guillermo Moscoso 2.97
Graham Godfrey 3.82
Travis Banwart 4.32
Josh Outman 6.44

BsRA9 (Base Runs Allowed/9ip)
Guillermo Moscoso 3.07
Why Not Travis Banwart?
Save Travis Banwart
Graham Godfrey 3.12
Travis Banwart 3.24
Josh Outman 6.45

Moscoso's case is strengthened by those last two numbers. It'll be interesting to see who the A's go with. Outman's experience and the team's comfort level with him could earn him the promotion. Hopefully, we'll get to see Godfrey and Banwart pitch in the big leagues, too. If not, I'm picking the River Cats to do pretty well in the Pacific Coast League.

Minute Maid Madness

While the Astros are not good this year, the hits just keep on coming from Minute Maid Park. Just last week, we shared this video of the Astros fan escaping from security after running on the field. Soon after that, loyal reader and good friend, Osh, sent us an email saying that our other good friend was hit in the ribs by a foul ball and it was funny. Naturally, I got on a plane, flew to Chicago, went to Osh's house, and video taped the clip off his TiVo. There's a good chance that you'd have to be friends with us to think this is really funny. Sorry, in advance, for the inside joking nature of the clip. It's just fun to see your friend get nailed by a foul ball. We've never uploaded video like this, I hope it works!


And now, for the close up view...