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Stolen Bases Against Lefty Pitchers

From today's Buster Olney column, his Stat of the day:
"Ted Lilly allowed the most stolen base attempts in 2011, with baserunners swiping 35 bags in 37 chances off of the Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw. The remaining top-5: John Lackey (33-for-36), Josh Beckett (31-for-35), Felix Hernandez (31-for-39) and Tommy Hanson (30-for-33)."
Southpaws are expected to control the running game, and Lilly gave up more stolen bases than anyone, even righties.

Stolen Bases Against Lefty Pitchers
Ted Lilly focuses on getting the batter out, and the numbers show it.

As his 35 of 37 record show, Ted Lilly was particularly terrible at controlling the running game by having only two runners thrown out. Of the Top 5 from Buster's column, at least Felix Hernandez got eight base runners thrown out.

Most stolen bases allowed by LHP:

Rk Tm SB ▾ CS CS%
1 Ted Lilly* LAD 35 2 5%
15 C.J. Wilson* TEX 24 7 23%
17 Cole Hamels* PHI 23 6 21%
23 David Price* TBR 20 5 20%
24 Wandy Rodriguez* HOU 20 3 13%
25 Gio Gonzalez* OAK 19 4 17%
27 Jeff Francis* KCR 18 5 22%
30 Ricky Romero* TOR 18 7 28%
31 Jason Vargas* SEA 18 5 22%
32 Randy Wolf* MIL 18 1 5%
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/27/2011.


Is there a relatively easy way to weigh these numbers against their catcher's stolen base against %? Any math people care to chime in?

AL East Notes

We shared our droning on the NL East a couple of weeks ago. Springing forth in spite of a remarkable lack of creativity, below are a few quick thoughts on recent developments in the AL East. Unlike last time, these will actually be quick...

Baltimore Orioles
AL East Notes
Britton may be the best of this bunch.
A couple of years ago, it looked like 2012 or 2013 could be the year of the Orioles' resurgence. Instead, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Zach Britton have yet to turn into anything resembling a fearsome foursome. Dan Duquette may be a passionate, experienced, and educated baseball man, but he could be running in circles until Peter Angelos gets pushed off of Eutaw Street.

Boston Red Sox
AL East Notes
Will Gio Gonzalez an AL East import?
Bobby Valentine may be the disciplinarian the Red Sox need to navigate their clubhouse back to winning ways, but more importantly, perhaps, is how this move reflects poorly on Ben Cherington's autonomy in hiring a manager. Apparently, he wanted Dale Sveum before Larry Lucchino stepped in to get Bobby V an interview. If Cherington is forced by ownership and senior management to hire an established, veteran manager, like Valentine or Gene Lamont, his role could be frighteningly similar to Dan Duquette's gig in Baltimore, where Buck Showalter calls many of the shots out of the dugout. Recent reports, like this one from Peter Abraham, suggests "the Red Sox are just being methodical and will announce Valentine (or Lamont) as their man next week."

Beyond their front office and management headaches, Boston has reportedly been discussing a Gio González trade with Oakland. We've heard the A's haven't really gotten into particulars with regards to a Gio trade with the Red Sox, Yankees, or any other rumored suitor.

New York Yankees
AL East Notes
Pujols is listening...
We wrote about the options Brian Cashman has in building his rotation for next season. Just this week, the Yankees unsurprisingly re-signed Freddy García. What's next is anyone's guess.

It would be really exciting if they did something unexpected, moved some money, and improved an aging lineup. For heaven's sake, there were murmurs the Yankees might sign David Ortiz. If they can sign old man Papi to DH, they could sign Pujols or Fielder to share first base with Teixeira.

Tampa Bay Rays
AL East Notes
The new CBA may cause
Baseball to lose more athletes
like Bubba Starling to football.
New rules about limits to spend on draft picks and international free agents probably affect the Rays and Blue Jays negatively more than any other teams in this division. The Orioles haven't been big spenders really anywhere lately. It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall as the Rays adapt their business to focus on other ways to gain an advantage while being overspent hand over fist. The Rays won't be able to build through the draft as heavily as in the past, and the Blue Jays wont be able to invest as they have recently in Latin America.

Toronto Blue Jays
Alex Anthopoulos has had a very good start to his career running the Blue Jays. The trade front has been kind to AA, as he's been able to subtract a Vernon Wells while adding talented pieces like Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie, among others. In this division, however, the economics of the game make it so difficult for the Rays, Jays, and O's. Difficult is not impossible, though. The underdogs among us should maintain, as Bob Dylan said, "I'm always on my guard, admitting life is hard".

Options for the Yankee Rotation

As we learned from Ben Nicholson-Smith's engaging summary of the NYY portions of Joel Sherman's column from Friday:

The Yankees have “looked into” Matt Garza, but a Cubs official downplayed the likelihood of any deal involving the right-hander, according to Sherman.
Options for the Yankee Rotation
If you Buy High, Sell Higher
Cub fans should love the Cubs to trade Matt Garza while his stock is high. He had a good campaign in 2011.

There are only two ways the Matt Garza deal won't be remembered as a fiasco for Jim Hendry:

1.) Matt Garza or Zach Rosscup contribute positively to a Cubs World Series championship team.
2.) Garza or Rosscup are traded for more than Chris Archer, Robinson Chirinos, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, and Sam Fuld.

Garza pitched very well for the Cubs last season, raising his status to a potential co-ace or #2 starter for a good team.

Perhaps Cashman and Co. look at Garza as a worthy #2 starter to CC Sabathia. If so, the Cubs should begin discussions with yet to turn 19-years old Gary Sanchez.

More from majorleaguetraderumors.com:
The Yankees particularly like Gio Gonzalez and the Athletics are open to anything, but GM Billy Beane is asking for an ace return for Gonzalez or Trevor Cahill.

The Yankees like John Danks and the White Sox like many Yankees prospects, particularly Austin Romine. However, Danks is a free agent after 2012 and the Yankees are reluctant to over-spend on a pitcher they’ll have for just one year.

If the Yankees don't make a major acquisition before Spring Training, they could pencil C.C. Sabathia, Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes into four rotation spots. Free agent Freddy Garcia could return on a one-year deal and prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances may contribute at some point in 2012.
Billy Beane should ask for an ace return in his two young pitchers. Gio and Cahill may not exactly be aces, yet, but they are young enough to project towards having an "Ace" season within the next 2 or 3 years. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. The Yankees can't get John Danks, Gio Gonzalez, or Trevor Cahill without giving up Ivan Nova or any of their 5-star prospects. Who else do the Yankees have to offer? Their return must be more blue chip than Matt Garza or John Danks to move Banuelos, Betances, Ivan Nova, or Jesus Montero.

What will the Yankees do with the opening(s) in their rotation? Penciling in the names, we find:

CC Sabathia
Ivan Nova
Phil Hughes
A.J. Burnett
tbd - Combination of Banuelos, Betances, and Hector Noesi, re-signing free agents Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon, signing other teams' free agents, or finding a trading partner.

As a snapshot of possibilities, a few quick comparisons:

2011 ERA+
C.J. Wilson 152
CC Sabathia 147
Gio Gonzalez 130
Jair Jurrjens 128
Ivan Nova 119
Matt Garza 118
Bartolo Colon 111
Hector Noesi 99
Trevor Cahill 97
John Danks 97
A.J. Burnett 86
Chris Capuano 82
Carlos Zambrano 81
Phil Hughes 77

2009-2011 ERA+
C.J. Wilson 146
CC Sabathia 140
Jair Jurrjens 124
Ivan Nova 114
Gio Gonzalez 113
John Danks 112
Bartolo Colon 111
Matt Garza 109
Trevor Cahill 107
Carlos Zambrano 106
Phil Hughes 104
Hector Noesi 99
A.J. Burnett 93
Chris Capuano 87

2011 SIERA
CC Sabathia 3.14
Matt Garza 3.31
C.J. Wilson 3.44
Bartolo Colon 3.60
Chris Capuano 3.60
Gio Gonzalez 3.78
John Danks 3.81
Hector Noesi 3.82
A.J. Burnett 3.89
Trevor Cahill 4.02
Ivan Nova 4.29
Jair Jurrjens 4.43
Carlos Zambrano 4.46
Phil Hughes 4.80

2009-2011 SIERA
CC Sabathia 3.54
Chris Capuano 3.66
C.J. Wilson 3.67
Hector Noesi 3.82
Matt Garza 3.85
Bartolo Colon 3.92
Phil Hughes 3.95
Gio Gonzalez 3.99
John Danks 4.11
A.J. Burnett 4.15
Carlos Zambrano 4.33
Ivan Nova 4.34
Trevor Cahill 4.41
Jair Jurrjens 4.42

Capuano, Wilson, Hughes, Nova, and Noesi all spent considerable time throwing out of the bullpen at some point since in the past three seasons, which skews the data for their contributions.

Interesting, how someone like Chris Capuano looks lousy in ERA+ and very good in SIERA. Hmmm?

Let's hear from the Yankee fans... What should Brian Cashman do with the tail end of the rotation? How many arms should they add before Spring Training? And, who do you like the most? Hit us up in the comment section (below) or on Twitter.

Thoughts on the NL East

On an evening subway ride and a couple lonely bar stools, recently, I wrote about my feelings (about the NL East)...

Philadelphia Phillies
Thoughts on the NL East
do not like
In light of Jonathan Papelbon's record-setting deal with the Phillies, the most unbelievable event has to be Papelbon's assertion that winning was more important to him than the money. What a boldfaced lie. For years, he had said that he wanted to set the new record for closers. The Phillies gave him the opportunity to do just that, and suddenly it's not about the money? Please. Papelbon is a knucklehead, and the Phillies have just given him enough money to ensure that future generations of knucklehead Papelbons will be a bunch of stupid, spoiled brats.

Ruben Amaro, Jr. is spending money in all the wrong places. Fifty million dollars for a closer is a gross misappropriation of funds. Why not retool with the best available non-first baseman? The free agent class is remarkably weak this hot stove season, but there are other ways to spend a budget. Bullpens can be built quickly. It certainly isn't easy, but as Kevin Towers has demonstrated for years, and the Rays proved last season, it is possible to build a quality bullpen at the last minute and on a budget.

Better things to do with $50 million than give it to a "proven closer" for 4 years:

- Sign Yoenis Cespedes and have about $18 million remaining to spend on three to five relief pitchers.
- Sign Jorge Soler and have about $30 million remaining to spend on a handful of relief pitchers.
- Sign Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler.
- Sign about 50 of the better amateur shortstops, catchers, and lefties in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.
- Build a baseball academy in The Netherlands.
- Build a baseball academy in China.

How much would it cost to sign every halfway decent 16 and 17 year old left-handed pitcher in the Dominican Republic? How many are there? 100? 500? 1,000? How much would it cost to scout them and sign the 50 best ones? The top 5 or 10 may cost millions of dollars, but the last 10 or 20 won't cost more than thirty or fifty grand. I am totally pulling this out of nowhere and have no idea. Moments like this make me want a friend like Ben Badler to ask. Omar Minaya would probably have a good answer.

Atlanta Braves
In Atlanta this offseason, Braves management looks like they intend to attend the swap meet, as opposed to the free agent auction.

For once, it seems like the majority of clubs, fans, and media realize the best move is to sit tight and increase the selective nature of free agent bidding. There only a handful of very good "gets" this year, yet they all have pitfalls. How messed up is it that most would agree that the contracts of the top 3 relievers to sign will each be an overblown albatross before the ink dries?

How about the perception of teams and their front offices? I'm guilty of this as much as anyone, but isn't it odd that if a team like the Braves say they won't spend big on free agents, we think they are being savvy, measured, or shrewd, but if the Mets aren't spending, we criticize them for "rebuilding"?

Thoughts on the NL East
Prado's bat plays much better
at second base than left field.
The Braves are looking to upgrade in left field, while trading excess starting pitching and their own left fielder, who can play a pretty good 2nd base. They already have Dan Uggla at second, so Prado playing out of position isn't helping them as much.

They need some right-handed power out of left-field, and Prado can help someone else by being a good second baseman. We already know the Braves are looking for someone better than Delmon Young in exchange for Prado, as they squashed that rumor last week.

They're also looking for a Greinke-esque return for a Jair Jurrjens swap. That is foolhardy and overpriced for a pitcher who's track record does not compare with the former Cy Young award winning, Greinke. If the Braves can get two or three good to very good prospects for the inconsistent Jurrjens, they should jump at the chance.

Washington Nationals
The heartbreaking story of Wilson Ramos has me becoming a quasi fan of the Nats. Not a real fan, but a quasi fan. I like a lot of their players: Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, Stephen Strasburg, Michael Morse, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmerman, Henry Rodríguez, and I think they're bringing Liván Hernández back. They should be a fun team to watch, especially if Jayson Werth finds the fountain of youth and Bryce Harper is ready to become a man.

Thoughts on the NL East
It'll be great to see Wilson Ramos back on the field.

In recent years, the Nationals have been big spenders (see: Jayson Werth), and this year is not different. Their one-year deal with Chien-Ming Wang was a luxurious spend, and they arguably should have shopped around a little more. The Nationals are really striving to hit that next level of competitiveness. It'll be interesting to see what they do with the money. A Fielder or Pujols grab would probably do them more good than replacing Ian Desmond with Jimmy Rollins.

New York Mets
Thoughts on the NL East
Reyes is pea cocking.
As a show of the stigma and unfair criticism towards some teams, how about those Mets? Do the Wilpons know that Sandy Alderson doesn't have to run a small market club? They are rebuilding in front of everyone's eyes when real Mets fans are looking around saying, "Why?" The Mets have all but lost José Reyes, who reportedly is only looking for offers starting at $100 million. The Mets won't go beyond four years, or anywhere approaching the reported 6yr/$90mil offer Reyes received from Miami.

Jimmy Rollins for three or four years could be fun, but definitely is not happening. This is the same team that signed a 32-year old Luis Castillo to a 4yr deal, and a very expensive 31-year old Jason Bay to a 4yr deal, with a vesting option on a 5th. Rollins is 32 years old, and Sandy Alderson is probably the least likely General Manager in the league to sign him.

Thoughts on the NL East
Lefties pitch forever.
The Mets crossed off Chris Capuano from their list of free agent targets because he wants a 2-year deal. Excuse me? The Mets reportedly believe they are two years away from contending, so they don't want to spend money on expensive long-term deals. My problem with the whole thing is that Chris Capuano is not expensive.

No statistic is an end-all, be-all measure of a player's worth, but Wins Above Replacement (WAR) will be our ruler for now. Taking the average WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, these were the Mets' best pitchers in 2011:

R.A. Dickey, 3.7 avWAR
Jonathan Niese, 2.0 avWAR
Chris Capuano, 1.7 avWAR
Mike Pelfrey, 1.1 avWAR

Taking it a small step further, here are the Top 10 left-handed pitchers in the NL East, by 2011 avWAR:

Cliff Lee, 6.8 avWAR
Cole Hamels, 5.2 avWAR
Jonny Venters, 2.7 avWAR
Eric O'Flaherty, 2.7 avWAR
Jonathan Niese, 2.0 avWAR
Chris Capuano, 1.7 avWAR
John Lannan, 1.1 avWAR
Mike Minor, 1.1 avWAR
Antonio Bastardo, 1.1 avWAR
Ross Detwiler, 0.8 avWAR

Capuano isn't the best pitcher in the world. Heck, he's not even markedly better than Tom Gorzelanny, who was 11th on our list, with 0.7 avWAR. Still, he's a proven, left-handed swing man, who should keep pitching at least one win above replacement level for the next few years. A struggling team should embrace whatever talents they can, especially when they may be relatively inexpensive. It is admirable, if the Mets are afraid he could turn into the next John Grabow.

Miami Marlins
Thoughts on the NL East
On 11/11/11, the Florida Marlins became the Miami Marlins, following suggestions made by Harry Caray and others of his generations.

The Marlins are attempting to make a big splash in free agency, while opening a brand new stadium next season. They want a star, or two, or four, to help Hanley Ramírez, Mike Stanton, and Ozzie Guillen open the new place and sell tickets. It has been reported that the Marlins extended a $90 million offer to Jose Reyes, as well as offers to Pujols, Buehrle, and Madson. They have reported interest in Carlos Beltrán, which makes me wonder, if the Marlins sign Carlos Beltran, a corresponding move would involve trading Logan Morrison for a starting pitcher, right? I haven't seen much speculation on that from the Jon Heyman's of the world.

The GM meetings in Milwaukee are developing a few important stories, mostly about the CBA and new rules for compentation towards teams that lose Type A and/or B free agents after offering arbitration. That's pretty unfair to teams who traded for, or hung onto, players with Type B designation who now will lose their expected return. I don't see how this won't be challenged in at least a few circumstances.

2011 MLB Award Ballots

During the 3rd week of November, Major League Baseball will unveil their Major Award winners, as voted on by the BBWA. This is fun to do; we suggest you try this at home. If we could vote on the awards, our ballots would look like this:


AL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award
1. Michael Pineda, Mariners
2. Jordan Walden, Angels
2011 MLB Award Ballots
Photo by Hannah Folsien/Getty Images
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals

Mark Trumbo may very well win this award because he lead all rookies with 29 homeruns. Aside from HR's, Hosmer was a much more impressive hitter. Trumbo made an out in over 70% of his plate appearances.

There were a bunch of pitchers with a case for inclusion. Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson, Al Albuquerque, and most notably Alexi Ogando had fantastic rookie campaigns.

Brett Lawrie, Dustin Ackley, and Desmond Jennings are future stars who didn't play enough games this past season to make it on our ballot. Lawrie is a guy who we hope gets his act together off the field because he produced like a beast after his to the Blue Jays. As an illustration, Brett Lawrie played only 43 games and leads all AL rookies position players in Wins Above Replacement. I'm glad I'm not a Brewers fan because I would surely rather have future seasons of Brett Lawrie than future seasons of Shaun Marcum.

NL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2011 MLB Award Ballots
Craig Kimbrell has been
a revelation in Dixie.
2. Freddie Freeman, Braves
3. Vance Worley, Phillies

From our point of view, Craig Kimbrel would have won the award in either league. The Braves almost swept this ballot for us, as Brandon Beachy of the Braves was a close 4th on our list. Beachy's 10.74 K/9 separated him from the rest of the also-ran starters. We also saw very good pitching from Josh Collmenter, Cory Luebke, and Dillon Gee pitched very well for the Giants, Padres, and Mets, respectively.

I found it interesting to look at their team's records in their starts. Worley and Gee were the best, and Gee's winning percentage is even more encouraging when keeping in mind that his team was well below .500 when he did not start.

Player W-L, Win%
2011 MLB Award Ballots
The Phillies #4 starter
Vance Worley 16-5, .762
Dillon Gee 17-10, .630
Josh Collmenter 12-12, .500
Cory Luebke 8-9, .471
Brandon Beachy 11-14, .440

Among NL rookie batters, Danny Espinosa, Allen Craig, Wilson Ramos, and Lucas Duda had very good seasons, but we didn't see enough to rank them ahead of Worley. Espinosa hit 21 homeruns while playing above average second base. Craig had a .366 OBP. Wilson Ramos played behind the plate to the tune of a 2.8 avWAR, and Lucas Duda had a .370 OBP while hitting well in clutch situations.

American League Cy Young Award
This should be a much closer race than people are giving CC Sabathia credit. The Yankee Ace has just slightly better numbers than Justin Verlander in FIP, xFIP, and fWAR, which is mostly from overcoming a higher BABIP and keeping the ball in the ballpark better than Verlander this season. Justin Verlander had better strikeout and walk rates than* Sabathia.

2011 MLB Award Ballots
Verlander for Cy Young is the
safest bet out of any of these.
There is also a correlation between a pitcher's stuff and his standing on our Cy Young ballots.

Wins Above Replacement is a nice thing to have, but as people on both sides of the hall evangelize, voters cannot simply follow WAR or Win Share leader boards to fill out their ballots. Here is the American League pitching WAR leaderboard from Baseball-Reference:


Rk Age Tm IP R Rdef aLI RAR WAR ▾
1 Justin Verlander 28 DET 251.0 73 -3 .9 87 8.6
2 CC Sabathia* 30 NYY 237.1 87 2 .9 75 6.9
3 Jered Weaver 28 LAA 235.2 65 8 1.0 61 6.6
4 Josh Beckett 31 BOS 193.0 65 0 1.0 64 6.2
5 James Shields 29 TBR 249.1 83 6 .9 59 6.1
6 Ricky Romero* 26 TOR 225.0 85 2 1.0 61 5.9
7 Doug Fister 27 2TM 216.1 76 -2 .9 55 5.7
8 Gio Gonzalez* 25 OAK 202.0 81 -4 1.0 49 5.0
9 C.J. Wilson* 30 TEX 223.1 89 3 1.0 52 5.0
10 Jon Lester* 27 BOS 191.2 77 0 1.0 50 4.8
11 Felix Hernandez 25 SEA 233.2 99 -1 1.1 43 4.7
12 Jeremy Hellickson 24 TBR 189.0 64 5 .9 43 4.2
13 Justin Masterson 26 CLE 216.0 89 3 1.1 38 4.1
14 Dan Haren 30 LAA 238.1 91 9 1.0 38 4.0
15 Matt Harrison* 25 TEX 185.2 79 3 1.0 42 4.0
16 David Robertson 26 NYY 66.2 9 0 1.7 31 3.9
17 Scott Baker 29 MIN 134.2 50 -3 .9 39 3.8
18 Mark Buehrle* 32 CHW 205.1 93 1 1.0 37 3.7
19 Brandon McCarthy 27 OAK 170.2 73 -4 .9 37 3.7
20 David Price* 25 TBR 224.1 93 5 .9 37 3.7


2011 MLB Award Ballots
James Shields had a world class '11. 
We are always open to celebrate or discuss Felix Hernandez, who somehow avoided our top 5.

1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. CC Sabathia, Yankees
3. Jered Weaver, Angels
4. James Shields, Rays
5. Dan Haren, Angels

Honorable Mention: Felix Hernandez, Brandon McCarthy, and Doug Fister

Until the last moment, Brandon McCarthy was on the ballot. He lead the AL in FIP, which is enough for serious consideration. Eventually, his lower inning total (170), discounted his achievements.

For comparison of the WAR values from Fangraphs, CC is 1st, Verlander 2nd, Haren 3rd, Jered Weaver is 5th, Felix is 7th, and McCarthy is ranked 10th. C.J. Wilson was ranked 4th, and I swear to you he wasn't anywhere near our top 5 even before his unflattering postseason.

AL Manager of the Year Award
Unless they win a pennant or the Manager of the Year award, people won't usually remember any specific seasons in someone's managerial career. It's a shame because it's not an easy job, and I think even more than three people really stood out in both leagues this year. Joe Girardi has several critics, particularly for his assumed dependence on his binder. He is rarely praised, as many believe the manager of the New York Yankees, with the #1 payroll in all of North American professional sports, should be able to field a winner. This year, Girardi deserves recognition for winning the AL East with a patchwork starting rotation that relied heavily on Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia. Perhaps more of the credit should go to Brian Cashman for being a wise shopper and hitting it big with low-cost free agents.

2011 MLB Award Ballots
Cleveland's on the right track, right?
1. Manny Acta, Indians
2. Jim Leyland, Tigers
3. Ron Washington, Rangers

It's so difficult to really know who's doing a better job managing between any two managers, let alone a handful of professionals who are at the top of their sport. Maybe it's because I'm a lowly Cubs fan, but my opinion is that what Manny Acta did, in changing the culture in Cleveland, from a young clubhouse, to a winning clubhouse was the most exceptional of all. Their front office surprised me by letting Grady Sizemore go last week. He's a 29-year old homegrown star who apparently doesn't have structural damage in his knee, and they let him walk rather than exercise a 1-yr/$9 million option. That doesn't sound like a winning culture to me.

Jim Leyland impressed a lot of people all over again managing his Tigers to the playoffs thisn season after the Miguel Cabrera DUI circus and often surviving with a pedestrian bullpen.

It's tough to pick Washington ahead of Girardi, and in fact, I'm not so sure that I should have. Ultimately, I think he did a great job keeping them winning after losing Cliff Lee. Weaker teams would have sensed their window of opportunity closing, while the Rangers played consistently good baseball and won the division comfortably.

NL Manager of the Year Award
Maybe it's something psychological in my head about having Yankees and former Yankees just fall short this year, but Don Mattingly was the honorable mention for our NL ballot this season. He did a good job keeping a hopeless team, dealing with an ugly and public divorce, above .500. Yet, he did it with what may have been the best Player (Kemp), the best Starting Pitcher (Kershaw), and the best Reliever (Jansen) in baseball last year.

2011 MLB Award Ballots
It's always better when TLR doesn't drive.
1. Tony LaRussa, Cardinals
2. Kirk Gibson, D'backs
3. Clint Hurdle, Pirates

Not much needs to be said about the run the Cardinals went on just to win the Wild Card. The sixty-five or so Braves fans that are out there are still shaking their heads. The D'backs and Pirates surprised the Senior Circuit in 2011. Arizona triumphed in the NL West, and Kirk Gibson's relationships with his players were revered. Although the Pirates faded to 4th place obscurity, they were in 1st place as late as July 25th. Their incredible run this Summer ignited a competitive fire in young Pirates fans that they had never felt before.

National League Cy Young Award
Clayton Kershaw was the pick I had in mind before looking at any numbers. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Zack Greinke actually ranked higher when I did an ineffective exercise comparing K/9, BB/9, HR/9, xFIP, and SIERA. After looking closer at batted ball and pitch value data from Fangraphs, we settled on the following:

2011 MLB Award Ballots
1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
2. Cliff Lee, Phillies
3. Roy Halladay, Phillies
4. Zack Greinke, Brewers
5. Cole Hamels, Phillies

Honorable Mention: Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain

Let's get out on that limb and say the Phillies are going to be good again next year.

American League MVP Award
1. CC Sabathia, Yankees
2. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
5. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
6. Evan Longoria, Rays
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers
8. Curtis Granderson, Yankees
9. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
10. Alex Avila, Tigers

Honorable Mention: Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano

2011 MLB Award Ballots
Isn't it possible to win the MVP as a pitcher, yet not be the best pitcher in his league?

I think value is determined by a player's production and circumstances. CC Sabathia metaphorically carried the Yankees to the postseason. In a league where every competitive team has three or four prototypical #1 and #2 starters, the Yankees won their division primarily because of the big man.

National League MVP Award
2011 MLB Award Ballots
1. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers
3. Prince Fielder, Brewers
4. Lance Berkman, Cardinals
5. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
6. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
7. Joey Votto, Reds
8. Jose Reyes, Mets
9. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
10. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Honorable Mention: Michael Morse and Andrew McCutchen

How about those Dodgers, with a potential MVP and Cy Young Award winner, but no owner. I know at least one Diamondback fan who will take offense to Justin Upton's spot on the list. It is a tough list to fill out. This season, the National League had so many fantastic performances. For instance, Joey Votto had about the same year as he had last year, when he won the MVP Award, but I can't place him above 7th this year. It's also funny to look back now, after the World Series, and imaging Albert Pujols not being #1 on this list. Alas, all ballots by the BBWAA were due before the postseason began.

Just for fun, let us know how you would you fill out your ballots.

Random Thoughts, Early November

Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington discussed potential new managers for the Red Sox before Theo left for Chicago. So, they're working off similar lists of candidates.


For sure, I'm biased, but why in the world would someone choose Boston over the Northside of Chicago?

Mike Maddux would be great for the Cubs if he can convince his brother, Greg, to stick around as an advisor. What a great staff they would have if they can count on Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, Jason McLoed, Randy Bush, Tim Wilkin, Oneiri Fleita, Greg Maddux, Mike Maddux, and the rest of staff.

* * *

Junior Lake, the Cubs' shortstop prospect, has taken the Arizona Fall League by storm. Through 21 games, he is hitting .315/.365/.618, with 5 homers, while leading the league with 14 extra base hits and 16 stolen bases.

* * *

Has anyone else taken notice at how horribly wrong the Orioles GM search has gone? They have known for months that Andy MacPhail was stepping down, and yet they are still nowhere near getting a replacement. No-one wants the job because working for Peter Angelos is about as much fun as a root canal. No-one wants the job because they are clearly the 5th placed team in a 5-team division, and while the other 4 teams are trending upward, the Orioles are not improving. No-one wants the job because Buck Showalter has almost unprecedented power as the Manager - even with authority to recommend who should be the new GM - that it's an uncomfortable position for a General Manager. The next GM of the Baltimore Orioles will have less autonomy than any other GM in baseball - aside from maybe Michael Hill of the Marlins, who is never head from, as Larry Beinfast seemingly pulls all the strings.

It's sad. I'm not much of an Orioles fan, but they are a classic franchise and shouldn't be relegated to the lowermost position of the American League, even if their owner is a sleazeball attorney with no acumen for fan pride or customer relations. At least I am not an Orioles fan. If I were, I would #OccupyEutawStreet and provide free t-shirts and ramen noodles to anyone else who'd try to unseat Peter Angelos.

* * *

Is Mark Prior still property of the Yankees?

* * *

This is one of the worst free agent classes I can remember, as there are very few blue chip opportunities, and a bunch of "no thanks" type of guys who are barely above replacement level. In fact, I think only about 4 or 5 guys are really, really good, and only about 20 or 25 guys are even relatively appealing to pay over $5 million per season.

* * *

Chien-Ming Wang got $4.5 million for next season from the Nationals. Amazing. I guess that's what a ground-ball rate over 50% and a 16/0 K/BB ratio in your last four starts of the season can do for you.

* * *

Let's call it Men's intuition, but I feel that Jose Reyes will end up back with the Mets after being unimpressed by what he hears from other teams.

* * *

Where is Prince Fielder going to end up? Traditional big spenders like the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Tigers, and Mets surely don't need him. The Brewers won't afford him, but I can't place where he'll end up. The Nationals? It's hard to believe that the Nationals might get who is potentially the best free agent this offseason, but I can't see him going too many other places. Maybe the smart money is on the Rangers getting the Prince. That would be something.

* * *

If you are like me, and you like anticipating the hot stove, and predicting who will end up where... or, if you just like to enter contests to win prizes, MLBTradeRumors is holding a free contest on predicting where their top 50 free agents will end up. Read more about the contest here, and good luck!

Random Thoughts, Early November
Pete Rose drinking something in a coffee mug with Mike Maddux
(Photo by Robyn Andrzejczak, IS Photography)

All Free Agent Team

It's that time of year again. Warming up the hot stove, it's time for the All Free Agent Team. Since the end of the World Series, the only transaction that may have affected this roster was CC Sabathia re-signing with the New York Yankees.


C: Ramón Hernández
Although he hasn't played in over 97 games since 2008, he shines over his competition. Defensively, Hernández has done well to stifle the running game. His caught stealing percentage the past three years have been 55%, 51%, and 59% last year. Ryan Doumit is the only other "catcher" who can hit as well as Hernández. Doumit has shown the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark, but he probably will not contribute more defensively than utility player/backup catcher. Comparatively, his CS% the past three years were 45%, 14%, and 32%, paling in comparison to Hernández. Every other catcher on the MLBTR free agent list is a terrible hitter. Teams needing a catcher should look at trades, late cuts, and minor league free agents.

1b: Albert Pujols
All Free Agent Team
Cardinal fans pray this isn't a good-
bye wave - Photo by Ed Szczepanski
I don't want the Cubs to sign Pujols. While they need a first baseman, the risk is too high for a team years away from contention.

Prince Fielder would be a more desirable high-priced import, while Yonder Alonso would be a nice lower-risk acquisition via trade. All that said, Pujols is still the best.

2b: Kelly Johnson
The better move may be to sign an older shortstop and transition him to second base, but Kelly Johnson is the best of the experienced second baggers. Aaron Hill could have a resurgent career in the right environment, and he may even be a better acquisition as a Type B prospect, while Kelly Johnson is a Type A - requiring higher draft pick compensation.

SS: José Reyes
We're about to see who's going to invest in aging speed. Reyes should continue to be excellent for another four or five years, but who's going to overpay for years six and seven?

3b: Aramis Ramírez
All Free Agent Team
$30 million can buy a
nice chicken coop.
No shock here, everyone agrees he is the best available player for the hot corner, but at age 34, some teams may not want to go with big money for three or four years. It was nice to hear Theo Epstein refer to Aramis Ramirez as a "post-prime" free agent in this Patrick Mooney article.

LF: Michael Cuddyer
Josh Willingham and David DeJesus could help clubs out with corner outfield spots, while hitting with similar success to Cuddyer, but the free agent fan favorite in Minnesota offers even more defensive flexibility, showing in the past that he can play all over the diamond.

CF: Grady Sizemore
After a quick glance at some stats, I thought Coco Crisp would be a better choice, and he still may be. He's been much more durable of late, and plays some of the finest defense anywhere in Centerfield. The thing with Sizemore is that he doesn't even need to return to his prime year numbers to outperform Coco Crisp. Even when more healthy than Sizemore the past three years, Crisp didn't hit much better.

2006, 2007, and 2008
Grady Sizemore: 2,244 PA's, .279/.380/.499
Coco Crisp: 1,452 PA's, .271/.330/.390

2009, 2010, and 2011
Grady Sizemore: 313 PA's, .234/.314/.413
Coco Crisp: 1,126 PA's, .262/.326/.396

RF: Carlos Beltrán
Signs point to Beltran re-signing in San Francisco or perhaps returning to the American League for a spot with Boston or the New York Yankees. The Red Sox need a right fielder and could use the switch-hitter with excellent outfield defense, albeit with less speed than in his younger years. The Yankees exercised Nick Swisher's option for 2012, but his one year deal should make him a valuable trade chip if the Bronx Bombers want to get some pitching in trade while signing an outfield replacement. They need starting pitching, and don't want to trade Jesus Montero. Put that way, signing a good right fielder and trading Swisher sure seems to make a lot of sense.

SP: C.J. Wilson
All Free Agent Team
Iwakuma could be a lower cost gem.
It's kind of a cop out, but Yu Darvish is not officially a free agent. He may be posted, and even then, he won't be an official MLB free agent.

The team with the winning bid has exclusive negotiating rights with the player, but the player could end up returning to Japan until unrestricted free agency a year later.

The same thing happened last offseason when the Oakland A's won the bid for Hisashi Iwakuma but failed to sign him. Iwakuma will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Last year's motives and goals for the A's are unknown, but it's curious to wonder if it will be an openly practiced strategy to significantly overbid on a player with no intention of signing them, simply to block him from a rival team.

RP: Jonathan Papelbon
Heath Bell has been waiting for his turn at free agency, expecting to be the bell of the ball. Unfortunately, for Bell, Papelbon never got extended by the Red Sox and regained his control after two subpar years in '09 and '10. The Red Sox closer lowered his BB/9 from 3.76 in 2010 to 1.40 last season. Papelbon's 2011 performance equated to a career best 1.53 FIP.

Heath Bell wasn't even the best free agent closer from the National League last year as Ryan Madson posted a career best 2.25 FIP, while collecting 32 Saves last year. Bell looks better when comparing numbers of the past three years and five years, but in 2011, Heath Bell regressed somewhat to a 3.23 FIP. The tiebreaker for any team deciding between these two NL closers could be that Madson is 31 years old, while Bell is 34.

All Free Agent Team
Like most people mentioned here, Ryan Madson had a very
good contract year. - photo by Ron Cortes

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years

Last month, when Manny Ramirez shamefully made it back into the news, our Already Missing Manny blog post received a bunch of page views. It was mostly a quick tour of humorous photographic moments of Manny being Manny. The post included a rash statement that Manny was one of the Top 5 hitters I've ever seen, which got me thinking, and got me into a whole lot of trouble...

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Before there was Robinson Cano,
baseball had Rod Carew.
The story of best hitters in my lifetime begins with Rod Carew's MVP season in 1977, where he batted .388. I was born during Spring Training of that year, so I only saw the Panamanian Hit King play during the past-his-prime mid-80's. Years later, I would see video of his swing, with scouts and coaches at a baseball camp, as we all marveled at Carew's ability to make each and every swing look like an instant replay of the one before it. Even with a camera angle behind home plate  Carew would invariably hit a line-drive into left-center field.

My recollections of baseball as a fan began in 1982, when I chose to be a fan of the Cubs instead of the White Sox. My reasoning wasn't clear, maybe I just liked the name better. All in all, I'm glad with the choice. Even through the suffering and dishonesty, I'll live through this thankless, one-sided relationship of love and devotion yet to be reciprocated.

Pete Rose's last season of batting over .300 was 1981, a bit before my time. I don't even remember him as a Phillie or Expo, where he played until traded back to Cincinnati in 1984 for Tom Lawless. Pete Rose, to me, was a bloated player/manager on the Reds who would put himself in the lineup often enough to catch the ghost of Ty Cobb before fading away into the sunset in the desert.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Yount had two SI
covers in October of '82.
In 1982, I remember Robin Yount had an inspirational season in Milwaukee and Mike Schmidt, coming off back-to-back MVP awards in '80 and '81, was the best hitter in the National League. Al Oliver hit .331, Dale Murphy won the '82 MVP, but I still thought of Schmidt as the best. Admittedly, this may be attributed to my decision to be a Cubs' fan.

As folklore goes, Michael Jack Schmidt was the #1 Cub killer of all time. In 1982 alone, Schmidt hit 9 home runs in 18 games against the Cubs. Over his career, he hit more home runs against the Cubs than any other team.

Mike Schmidt Most Career Home Runs vs Opponent
78 vs Cubs
Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Mike Schmidt loved
the friendly confines.
62 vs Pirates
57 vs Expos
55 vs Reds
49 vs Mets

He also loved, no, LOVED hitting at Wrigley Field. In 138 career games at Wrigley, he hit 50 home runs. His career batting average at Wrigley Field (.307) was forty points higher than his overall career batting average (.267).

In 1983, news from the American League echoed praises for a quirky young man in Boston showing an extraordinary command for the strike zone. Wade Boggs would famously watch the pitch as long as possible, with his face often snapping back to the catcher's glove, as he trailed the ball with his eyes the entire time. His combination of impeccable batter's eye and efficient bat control got him to Cooperstown with legendary career slash line of .328/.415/.443. Over his first ten seasons, almost 1,500 games, Wade Boggs flaunted a .345 batting average and .435 OBP.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
People who saw it still talk
about The Sandberg Game.
Cubs fans older than me remember 1984 as a great season to be a Cubs fan.Heck, until 1984, the Cubs hadn't been in a postseason game since World War II.

The MVP in the National League in 1984 was the Chicago Cubs poster boy, Ryne Sandberg. Defense was a big part of Ryno's game, and of course, he had "The Sandberg Game" on National TV, with Bob Costas. The best hitters in 1984 were Tony Gwynn and Don Mattingly.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
We'll be talking about Tony
Gwynn for a long time.
Tony Gwynn was simply tuning his instrument, warming up for a Hall of Fame career that would defy our eyes. He struck out only 3.4% of the time and lead the league with a .351 average and 7.3 WPA.

Over in the American League, The Yankees were a flawed team but had a couple of MVP candidates. Dave Winfield scored 106 runs, knocked in 100, hit .340, with a 154 OPS+. Don Mattingly, at 23-year olds, entering his prime, had his first of six straight All-Star seasons, won a batting title with his .343 average, and lead the league with a 156 OPS+. Mattingly's extra base hit-to-strikeout ratio of 69-to-33 was particularly impressive.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Don Mattingly won his American League MVP award in 1985, but Wade Boggs and George Brett had better offensive season. Brett probably could have made this list in '82 or '83, but his prime was a bit before my time. He was a tough out in the 70's, 80's, and 90's. In fact, he had world class seasons ranging from his 22-year old 1975 campaign to his 37-year old 1990 renaissance. If George Brett's legendary 1980 season, where he hit .390, had happened a few years later, he'd probably end in our Top 5. Since I was busy learning how to speak and dress myself as a 3-year old, George Brett flew a bit under my radar until the late 80's.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Rivalry? What rivalry?
The Summer of 1986 had more of Mattingly and Boggs leading the way. Donnie Baseball, hit a career high .352 but failed to win his second batting title. Wade Boggs batted .356. Jim Rice also had an outstanding season for Boston, leading the Red Sox to their destinies in October.

In the National League, Mike Schmidt enjoyed a renaissance, winning his third MVP trophy as a 37-year old third baseman. This season cemented Schmidt as a walking, talking Hall of Famer. Other notable performances around the senior circuit in '82 include performances from Eric Davis, Tim Raines, Keith Hernandez, and Tony Gwynn, who's .329 batting average wound up below his career .338 average.

As many people remember, in 1987, the baseball got a little bit livelier. There have been rumors, stories, accusations, and the truth is murky. Reasons may never definitively be known, but home runs went up, players said the balls were harder. They were "juiced" - the baseballs, not necessarily the players, yet. Baseball, in the steroids department, still had some innocence left.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
In '87, The Hawk soared at Wrigley.
One of my favorite summers as a Cubs fan, and growing up in general, was in 1987. My favorite player, to this day, Andre Dawson signed a blank contract to play day baseball in Wrigley Field, asking the Cubs to fill in the salary for whatever they think it's worth. Dawson went on to hit 49 home runs for the last-place Cubbies, winning the MVP award in what can incredibly be considered both undeserved and inspiring. Andre Dawson brought a level of professionalism, ferocity, and class that the Cubs have not seen before nor since.

Dawson deserves his own post(s).

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Alan Trammell lead the Tigers past
George Bell's Blue Jays late in '87.
Some of the better pure hitting performances of 1987 belonged to Pedro Guerrero, Paul Molitor, George Bell, and Alan Trammell. In fact, Alan Trammell had a Hall of Fame season in 1987 but narrowly lost the AL MVP vote to Toronto's Bell, who hit 47 HR's, while batting over .300, scoring 111 runs, knocking in 134, and leading the league with 369 total bases. As far as top hitters of this time go, we're still talking about Gwynn and Boggs. Tony Gwynn batted .370 in 1987 and finished 8th in MVP voting. It was a strange year.

Wade Boggs performed at the peak of his sport once again in 1988. He batted .366 with a .476 on-base, further cementing his status as a batting icon for the ages. Boggs didn't win the MVP in '88 for a number of reasons, including splitting votes with teammate, Mike Greenwell. Regardless, the Oakland A's Jose Canseco became the first person to ever go 40/40 and won unanimously.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
A player's personality
affects MVP votes.
Closing out the decade, Wade Boggs again lead the way in the American League, hitting .330 with a .430 OBP. To get an idea of how times have changed, Wade Boggs lead the league in on-base percentage but finished just 21st in MVP voting. Robin Yount won his second MVP award in 1989, and it's difficult to say why. The Brewers finished 81-81 that year, and Yount didn't lead the league in any offensive categories that would have made sense to voters in 1989. According to Baseball-Reference, he lead the league in Runs Created and Offensive WAR. The guys who voted for the MVP award, while sitting around their typewriters smoking cigars did not vote based on Runs Created or Offensive WAR. Perhaps the voting was for sentimental reasons, a good story. Afterall, Yount was a 33-year old class act who was transitioning from shortstop to center field for the betterment of his club. Sportswriters eat that stuff up; the story can write itself. Why hasn't Jeter moved off of shortstop, yet?

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
A single up the middle on this
swing ended the '89 Cubs season.
A post covering great hitters of the late '80s must at the very least have a mention of Will Clark, who had some very good seasons in 1987 and '88 before truly becoming Will the Thrill when leading the Giants to the World Series in 1989. Cubs fans from back then will not forget how Will Clark destroyed Cubs pitching in the NLCS. Clark batted .650, yes .650, with 8 runs scored and 8 RBI in 5 games. His OPS was 1.882.

The 1990's were a time of offensive explosion across baseball, with smaller ballparks, diminished pitching talent from expansion, Chicks Dig the Longball campaigns, tighter baseballs, and juiced-up players. Interestingly enough, the best performance during the first year in the decade was not by a slugger, but the greatest leadoff hitter of all time. Rickey Henderson didn't come to mind when I thought of the best hitters in my lifetime, but he was so much more than a slap and go speedster. While he had power that was previously unseen in the leadoff spot, it was Rickey Henderson's batting eye that made him so difficult to get out. Rickey new the strike zone well enough to walk his way to Cooperstown.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Rickey dominated games.
In 1990, by batting .325, having an OPS over 1.000, and stealing 65 bases, Rickey Henderson lead the Oakland A's to their second straight World Series. Over in the National League, we are going to start hearing a lot about a young legacy player in Pittsburgh who just won his first of seven MVP awards.

On a beautifully sunny 81-degree afternoon in old Milwaukee County Stadium, August 2nd, 1990, a very large 22-year old man, named Frank Thomas, made his Major League debut. Looking back at the box score, this game has all sorts of nostalgia. Big Frank was batting 5th in the lineup, in-between 42-year old Carlton Fisk and 21-year old Sammy Sosa. Ozzie Guillen batted 9th. The Brewers also showed a mix of young and old with Robin Yount batting second and Gary Sheffield batting third at 21 years old. In his first game in The Show, Frank Thomas drove in the game winning RBI, with a tie-breaking fielder's choice in the top of the 9th.

The Frank Thomas Show was a hit immediately.

Look at the start of his career:

Year Age PA HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
-----------
1990 22 240 7 44 54 .330 .454 .529 .983 177
1991 23 700 32 138 112 .318 .453 .553 1.006 180
1992 24 711 24 122 88 .323 .439 .536 .975 174
1993 25 676 41 112 54 .317 .426 .607 1.033 177
1994 26 517 38 109 61 .353 .487 .729 1.217 211
1995 27 647 40 136 74 .308 .454 .606 1.061 179
1996 28 649 40 109 70 .349 .459 .626 1.085 178
1997 29 649 35 109 69 .347 .456 .611 1.067 181
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/23/2011.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Frank Thomas / threw like
a child / hit like a beast
Big Frank wasn't done after 29, but those first seven and a third seasons were one of the best starts to any career. His most comparable player at ages 23, 26, 27, 28, and 29 was Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg. The Big Hurt was already being mentioned as a certain Hall of Famer in 1994, getting comparisons to Jimmie Foxx and Ted Williams.

After turning 30, Frank Thomas had some injury problems but still hit 39+ home runs at age 32, 35, and 38. He retired with 521 home runs and will be a worthy and well respected first ballot hall of fame inductee. To maintain some semblance of brevity, let's all mentally place a Frank Thomas mention into this post for the next seven years.

You may remember 1992 for the amazing NLCS between Pittsburgh and Atlanta, and also the Pirates' last season with Barry Bonds and last season finishing over .500 to date. While the East Coast slept, Edgar Martinez was doing things no DH had ever done before.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
In 1993, my coaches were quick to
reference Olerud as a swing to mimic.
Frank Thomas won the first of back-to-back MVP awards in 1993. That year was also the year that John Olerud basically stopped making out. His .473 on-base percentage was achieved as a work of art.

Olerud had a beautiful swing, stayed perfectly balanced all year, never moving his head until after contact. We've heaped praise on Olerud in the past and wish he would have stayed on the Hall of Fame ballot. His story is worthy of being retold.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Cooperstown needs
Jeff Bagwell.
The strike-shortened season of 1994 cost fans the only postseason in baseball history. It also cost fans a few compelling record chasers. Jeff Bagwell, Albert Belle, Edgar Martines, and Frank Thomas had fantastic years, but Tony Gwynn was challenging Ted Williams. When the season ended, Gwynn was batting .396, striking out only 4% of the time.

The first time Tony Gwynn was brought up in this discussion was eleven seasons ago. At the age of 34, Tony Gwynn batted .396 in 110 games of a strike-shortened season. Chances are he would have ended a full season batting somewhere in the .360-.390 range, but who knows? There are articles out there saying that Gwynn is convinced to this day that he would have hit .400 in 1994. There is an amazing part of Tony Gwynn's greatness that I'm hoping to share clearly. In his prime, he stole a lot of bases (56 as a 27-year old in 1987), suggesting he had some speed. He was such a great hitter, that as he aged, he roped enough line drives to play at an All-Time Great level at an advanced age. As an example, below are his numbers around turning 30.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Tony Gwynn was an
All-Time World Class
athlete for 20 years.
Tony Gwynn
Age 22-29: 4,527 PA's, .332/.389/.437
Age 30-41: 5,705 PA, .343/.388/.475

Or, if you prefer...

Tony Gwynn
Age 22-30: 5,156 PA's, .329/.385/.435
Age 31-41: 5,076 PA's, .347/.392/.483

Those second numbers make him look even better as an old player. I wonder who the best aging players of all time were? No matter who we could think of, we'd have Tony Gwynn in right field.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Kids, don't sleep
on Edgar Mertinez.
When baseball returned, in the late 90's, offensive numbers (particularly home runs) went berserk. Vladimir Guerrero, Mo Vaughn, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, and Larry Walker joined the party.

Edgar Martinez was at the top of his game for three straight seasons after the strike. He routinely gets penalized for being a Designated Hitter, but that penalty does not apply to our discussion. As many of you know, Edgar didn't get a shot until much later than most ball players. His debut was at 24, and the first time he played more than 65 games was as a 27-year old. To use the Tony Gwynn illustration above:

Edgar Martinez
Age 24-30: 2,249 PA's, .306/.391/.456
Age 31-41: 6,423 PA's, .314/.427/.537

Around the time the great Barry Larkin began to fade in the National league, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and A-Rod gave the AL a three-headed monster at Shortstop. Their all around games effectively changed the expectations of what a great shortstop should accomplish. Today's young shortstops like Starlin Castro, Manny Machado, and Adeiny Hechavarria will soon have a chance to make their own lasting impressions.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Larry Walker lead the league with
44 doubles in strike-shortened 1994
One more player we need to highlight who's career began to flourish in the '90s and carried into the new millennium is Larry Walker. His greatness began in Montreal, finishing 5th in MVP votes in 1992. He flourished to astronomical performances in Colorado, and lead the Cardinals to the '04 pennant as an elder statesmen. Over a three year period, '97-'99, Larry Walker batted .369. After an injury-shortened 2000, where he still batted over .300, he won a third batting title in 2001, with a .350 batting average.

It's rare to say this about a great New York athlete, but the seasons Bernie Williams had in 1998 and 1999 sort of go unnoticed. Among the outstanding performances of a handful of great teammates, Derek Jeter's 1999 season - .349 batting average and 24 home runs from the shortstop position - cast a shadow from which the demure Bernie Williams would rarely emerge.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Jason Giambi was a WWE
Superstar who could hit.
Around the time of Y2K fears coming and going, baseball had phenomenal hitting performances by Jason Giambi, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Manny Ramirez, and others.

Todd Helton finished 5th in MVP voting but was basically Mr. 2000, leading the National League in Hits, doubles, extra base hits, total bases, batting average, and the alphabet soup of OBP, SLG, WPA, RE24, and WAR. It's irrelevant to this discussion, but Helton was also the best defensive player in the National League that season.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Todd Helton is still getting it done.
As Yankee fans are intimately aware, Jason Giambi's prime didn't last very long.

By comparison, Todd Helton had about eight fantastic season, or certainly not Manny Ramirez, who flourished for over ten years. (just ask Yankee fans), but he was the best in the business circa 2001.

They have Hall of Fame numbers and will receive serious consideration for our Top 5 list. Our list doesn't need to only be comprised of future Hall of Famers. History is littered with stories of some of the best hitters of all time with no place in Cooperstown. John Olerud isn't the only one. Still, just for fun and perspective, let's see how a handful of these guys look when put into Bill James's Hall of Fame Monitor:

Bill James's HoF Monitor
Manny Ramirez: 222
Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
"Me llamo Manny"
Frank Thomas: 194
Todd Helton: 164
Larry Walker: 147
Albert Belle: 134
Edgar Martinez: 132
Jason Giambi: 104
Likely HoF'er = 100
Will Clark: 84
John Olerud: 68

Not unlike Giambi and Manny, Barry Bonds cheated his way into all the record books through the mid 2000's. Before the time he's suspected of using steroids, he was already one of the best hitters we've ever seen.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Who likes me? I like me.
Growing up following the rise and fall of Barry Bonds's career, as a conscientious observer, unfortunately lead me to detest his existence in baseball's record books. We're in that uncomfortable place where steroids can unfairly be used as a crutch. I would love to expel Bonds from this discussion for cheating, lying, and being selfish, self-centered and disagreeable since he was a child. We hear about this choice voters make every year for Hall of Fame voting, and I side with keeping steroid users out of the Hall. There's something noble about trying to improve the quality of character of future Hall of Fame inductees, even if the hall already has cheaters, criminals, and racists.

Sometimes, I have to throw mu hands up in the air because erudite examples are hard to come by in matters of honor, and few things really make sense from the Selig Era. Some would say it's fair to talk about every player when having discussions of who's better and who's best. It doesn't cost anything to have good manners, and it always pays to be considerate.

We don't really know who any of these guys are. The most genial players on our favorite teams, might be lying, two-faced, 'roided up, cheating dirt bags like Barry Bonds. Albert Pujols could have been on steroids his entire career. Who knows? Are we supposed to erase them from our minds when thinking of the best hitters we've ever seen? It may be best to penalize players for whatever factors we as individuals choose. We could penalize Rafael Palmeiro, Giambi, Bonds, Arod, Manny and more for steroids, Edgar Martinez for not playing defense, Reggie Jackson for being pompous, Albert Belle for being an unpleasant person, Jim Rice for doing most of his damage in Fenway, Todd Helton for playing half his games in Colorado, on and on... Our perceptions of what players put into their bodies, fairly or unfairly, affect our overall opinions of their careers.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Jim Thome has lived a legendary,
storybook career.
Jim Thome is a great slugger, with Hall of Fame numbers. He, presumably by all accounts, did it cleanly and is a testament to the existence of good guys in professional sports. They say he's the nicest guy around. He knows the names of all the ushers in Cleveland, and his last season there was 2002. Thome is one of the best sluggers of all time, as deserving a hero as anyone can be for athletic achievements, but not one of the top 5 hitters I've ever seen. His strikeout rate is too high, but many of the nicest neighborhoods in America are filled with old ballplayers who's strikeout rates were pretty high.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Ken Griffey, Jr's story
leads to Cooperstown.
Another all-time hero and face of the game who isn't going to make our top 5 is Ken Griffey, Jr. Hard to believe, when considering that he had a beautiful, left-handed swing and batting numbers that put him in the company of apt Mickey Mantle and Frank Robinson comparisons. Injuries aside, we aren't talking about accumulating statistics. Ken Griffey Jr's rate stats were always excellent, but never the all-time high efficiency we'll see from the career and prime numbers of the era's greatest hitters. He's a first-ballot guy, one of the bests all around players of all time, heck, his Hall of Fame Monitor score is 235. Still, Junior didn't perform like an all-time pure hitter as his career .284/.370/.538 slash line shows.

Moving into the past decade, from 2002 through this 2011 season, we're still subject to Barry Bonds's transgressions. Chipper Jones hits better than any third baseman since Mike Schmidt. In Missouri, a new batting force hits the scene to even grander success than the aforementioned Frank Thomas.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
I'm number 1.
The St. Louis Cardinals new franchise player arrived in 2001, Albert Pujols. With Albert, it's almost always been understood. Mentioning anything about his excellence seems redundant because it's something everyone should basically already know. His career batting average is .329, with an OPS over 1.000. Albert Pujols is only in his 11th season, and his Hall of Fame Monitor is already 263.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Pujols in the house!!!!!!!
Put another way, this has been the worst or second-to-worst season in Albert Pujols's career. His other least brilliant season was 2002, where he finished second to Barry Bonds in NL MVP voting. Here is an 11-year veteran who's worst two seasons include one where he finished 2nd in MVP voting.

Over the past decade, baseball fans have enjoyed a variety of tremendous offensive seasons. A few guys with historically great years since 2002 include Lance Berkman, Ichiro, Derrek Lee, Magglio Ordonez, David Ortiz, Joe Mauer, Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder, and Jose Bautista. A few guys, like Hamilton, Prince, and Bautista may extend their primes long enough to make a grander statement, but the rest of this group seems to have stopped improving physically. Prince Fielder particularly stands out, as the youngest of the group, but he's too much of a slugger to expect him to hit like Tony Gwynn as an aging player. Joey Votto and Robinson Cano are excellent hitters, who would have excelled in any era.

Ultimately, as we try to wrap this up, there are a few active players that deserve some consideration for our Top 5, namely Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun. Anyone who watched them hit in this postseason is aware of just how devastating these two hitters can be to opposing pitchers. The questions are where do they stack up? And, have they done enough already to warrant being on this list? For comparison's sake, Valdimir Guerrero's career 140 OPS+ is very impressive. He didn't walk much, but he hit so well that he avoided outs like an elite batter. I wanted to see if I could make an argument for Vladdy Daddy's consideration and quickly looked up the active leaders in OPS+ on baseball-reference:

Active OPS+ Leaders
Albert Pujols: 171
Manny Ramirez: 154
Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Andy Van Slyke is fooling
around with Miguel Cabrera.
Miguel Cabrera: 149
Jim Thome: 147
Lance Berkman: 146
Ryan Braun: 145

Cabrera and Braun are not a bilingual law firm. They are a couple of solid MVP picks for the AL and NL, respectively, this season. Their defense is really nothing to be proud of. Braun's ability to catch a baseball is particularly horrid. Their extraordinary abilities to hit the baseball consistently, and hit it with power, overcome the defensive escapades so much that MVP consideration is still warranted. If these two extremely talented hitters can maintain their primes for another six or seven years, there's no telling where they'll end up in the record books.

Without further ado, here is our definitive list of the Top 5 Hitters of the past 30 years.

Top 5 Hitters of the Past 30 Years
Pujols is ready to get PAID!
1. Albert Pujols
2. Barry Bonds
3. Frank Thomas
4. Wade Boggs
5. Tony Gwynn

Honorable mention: 


Edgar Martinez
Manny Ramirez
Alex Rodriguez
Ryan Braun
Miguel Cabrera
Todd Helton
Larry Walker

Let the arguments begin! Who are the best players you've ever seen hit? The spans of our lifetimes our likely different, but even if they do not, our lists should vary. (Feel free to start the discussion on pitchers, too.)