Older Posts

 Below are the 2011 batting leaders for each position, as measured by extra base hits. For historical significance, we included the last person at his position with more in a season.

Check out the "best since" surprises at 2nd Base, Shortstop, and LF.



A lot of beer bets can be won with the trivia question of which Left Fielder hit the most extra base hits in 2010.

The stability at the corner infielders was a bit surprising, as well.

Thoughts? Comments? Please share below!

A few curiosities on this Thursday lunch hour:

Why is Coco Crisp being considered for Left Field? If his defense has deteriorated to the point where ha cannot effectively play Center Field, why would a team be interested in him? Fangraphs defensive metrics suggest Marlon Byrd was better defensively than Coco Crisp in 2011. Fangraphs calculates a Center Field UZR/150 of 3.0 and -6.7, respectively for Marlon and Coco last season. Defensive metrics need much larger sample sizes than one season to show anything of statistical significance. Over the past three seasons (2009-2011), Crisp stands as a superior defensive Center Fielder, UZR/150 of 3.4 to Byrd's 0.9. How their future performance will compare is anyone's guess. I'm just surprised the Cubs* and Dodgers are looking at Crisp to play Left Field.

Why hasn't Peyton Manning been placed on IR? Why wasn't Peyton Manning's surgery done earlier than right before training camp?

Why is the bounty of the Clippers CP3 deal better than what the Lakers offered? Why is Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Minnesota's unprotected 2012 first-round pick better than Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Goran Dragic, and the Knicks' first-round pick?

Why aren't the Mets getting any credit for signing Chuck James? Everyone, so far, is like 'Who the heck is Chuck James?' After a few promising campaigns with the Atlanta Braves, James disappeared for a few years (who hasn't), before reemerging for eight appearances with the Twins last year. If he has a good summer and nets the Mets a prospect in a July trade, Sandy Alderson will have a good moment, perhaps the highlight of his season.

*According to baseball-reference, the two players in all of baseball history most similar to Coco Crisp, statistically speaking, are:

Are the Cubs stockpiling Byrd's? That's what Aramis does in the D.R.

1. Marlon Byrd
2. David DeJesus

If the Cubs sign Coco Crisp, they will have all three of them in 2011. Wouldn't that be something? It could mean the Cubs are willing to eat about 70% of the Soriano contract to send him to the American League. They should send him to the Astros, who will need a DH next season.

Yeah, Coco Crisp would have some fans on the North Side of Chicago...

A few numbers on a couple of free agents:

Over the past 11 years (since 2001)
Player A: .272/.343/.451, 141 HR, 415 xBH
Player B: .285/.367/.510, 273 HR, 675 xBH

Player A: 111 OPS+, .345 wOBA, 111 wRC+
Player B: 127 OPS+, .380 wOBA, 131 wRC+

Player A: 52 SB, 16 CS, .12 GDP/game
Player B: 250 SB, 33 CS, .07 GDP/game

Player A: 1.7 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 5.1 avWAR/600 PA

Age 24 - Age 32 Seasons (9 years)
Player A: .272/.344/.453, 137 HR, 402 xBH
Player B: .284/.367/.512, 244 HR, 597 xBH

Player A: 111 OPS+, .346 wOBA, 111 wRC+
Player B: 126 OPS+, .381 wOBA, 130 wRC+

Player A: 49 SB, 16 CS, .12 GDP/game
Player B: 243 SB, 30 CS, .06 GDP/game

Player A: 1.7 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 5.3 avWAR/600 PA

Past 3 Years (since 2009)
Player A: .276/.341/.465, 66 HR, 180 xBH
Player B: .298/.384/.497, 39 HR, 121 xBH

Player A: 117 OPS+, .351 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Player B: 141 OPS+, .380 wOBA, 140 wRC+

Player A: 24 SB, 5 CS, .15 GDP/game
Player B: 18 SB, 4 CS, .11 GDP/game

Player A: 1.9 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 4.7 avWAR/600 PA

Today
Player A: 32 years old, 1.7 Career avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 34 years old, 4.8 Career avWAR/600 PA

They've both been consistent over the years.

The speed has basically vanished from Player B's game, and his Homerun production is not what it used to be. On the other hand, Player B is still slugging better than Player A, and Player A is right on his heels in the age department and won't be increasing his HR total nor stealing many bases in the future.

If both of these players are station-to-station batters, why not choose the one with the superior batting and on-base skills?

Earlier today, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Rockies offered Michael Cuddyer more than the 3yr/$25M deal the Twins offered and are hoping to land Cuddyer or Carlos Beltrán, Players A and B, respectively.

Teams are open to three year deals for 32-year olds like Cuddyer and Josh Willingham, whom the Twins are looking to sign. What's the right contract length and salary for Beltrán? Whatever the fair price for Beltrán is, it would be more desirable than paying 27 million dollars to Michael Cuddyer for three years.

Will fans blame Cuddyer, or Twins management, if he leaves town?

Shortly after news broke of the Marlins' most recent transaction - trading Burke Badenhop to the Tampa Bay Rays for minor league catcher Jake Jefferies, the estimable Keith Law tweeted:

Badenhop is tough on righties

"And with the Badenhop trade, the Marlins no longer have any of the six players acquired for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis."

That's interesting, but a little besides the point is that some of the six players were traded for players the Marlins still have, including Jefferies. Law's keen observation stands to point out that the Marlins could still have Miguel Cabrera. Granted, some of the past few years in South Florida have been lean. Without a steady, money-spending fan base and a couple dozen more corporate sponsors, it would have been terribly hard to sustain a payroll with an extra $66 million parked on first base.

Quickly, I thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at the Cabrera/Willis for Maybin/Miller & Co swap four years ago.

Since the trade on December 7, 2004:

Dontrelle Willis
2008 avWAR*: -0.75
2009 avWAR: -0.4

Love rooting for Dontrelle!

2010 avWAR: -0.1
2011 avWAR: 0.35

Subtotal: -0.9 avWAR

*avWAR is the average Wins Above Replacement from baseball-reference and Fangraphs.

Miguel Cabrera
2008 avWAR*: 2.95
2009 avWAR: 4.7
2010 avWAR: 6.75
2011 avWAR: 7.2

Subtotal: 21.6 avWAR

Total from Marlins: 20.7 avWAR

The Marlins traded away more than 5 WAR per season, over the past four seasons, in addition to the future Wins of MiggyCab and the D-Train.. What did they receive in return?

Besides the six players (Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio (Frankie) De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, and Dallas Trahern), the Marlins traded Maybin for a couple of guys they still have, (Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb), and of course just received Jake Jefferies for Badenhop. Unfortunately, the Marlins gave up on former first-round pick Andrew Miller, trading him for a guy they would lose on waivers to the Braves before making it to the big club: Dustin Richardson.

Cameron Maybin, 2008-2010 avWAR: 2.45
Andrew Miller, 2008-2010 avWAR: -1.2
Burke Badenhop, 2008-2011 avWAR: 1.7
Eugelio De La Cruz, 2008 avWAR: -0.75
Mike Rabelo, 2008 avWAR: -0.55
Dallas Trahern, 2008-2011 avWAR: n/a
Edward Mujica, 2011 avWAR: 1.25
Ryan Webb, 2011 avWAR: 0.55

Total to Marlins: 3.45 avWAR

In return for 20.7 WAR over the past four years, the Marlins are getting less than 1 WAR per season in return. They still have the future value of Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb, and Jake Jefferies to bank on, but will it be enough to catch up to the Hall of Fame pace of 28-year old Miguel Cabrera?

Would you want to bet your reputation on Edward Mujica?

There are estimates out there, like ZiPS, and aging WAR curves, but no-one knows for certain what the future holds. It's a good bet that Miguel Cabrera will continue to run away from the pack, but we still don't know for sure. After all, the Marlins could wind up trading Edward Mujica this July for a future prospect who becomes a Hall of Famer. Well, it could happen but it's highly doubtful.

Chances are, the Marlins will never come close to making up for punting Miguel Cabrera after his age 24 season, nor should they. As bad as our grammar can get, and as bad as bad trades can go, the legend of this trade will get worse and worse as time goes by.

The Marlins tried getting Albert Pujols last week, and with that cash, they could have kept Miguel Cabrera in South Florida all along.

Messing around on baseball-reference, on the second night of baseball's winter meetings, I ranked starting pitchers by average Game Score in 2011. "Unhiding non-qualifiers for rate stats" makes the list particularly interesting by noticing successful, young arms with limited experience.

While we wait to hear news about Pujols' decision between St Louis, Miami, and wherever else, take a look at Matt Moore's one fine start and everyone who's average Game Score is lower than the GmSc from Moore's debut.

Matt Moore of the Rays is much better than Matt Moore of the Dolphins.

Earlier this Summer, I thought the days leading up to the trading deadline in late July was the best time of year to read mlbtraderumors. Whenever I thought that, I was mindlessly forgetting about the Winter Meetings.

Yesterday, and the next few days are really the crème de la crème time for rumors and blockbuster transactions.

Early this morning, I loaded up mlbtr on my blackberry's browser. On the subway, I read through their first page of rumors and jotted down some notes.


If you are like me, and you want to hear every rumor and upday, please click here and check out mlbtr. Even if you don't want to read it, click on the link and help them sell more ads.

Feel free to read below, if you care for what stood out from my review this morning. So, in the spirit of sharing ideas, enjoy:

Robert Andino is better than most people think.

- "Orioles infielder Robert Andino is drawing trade interest from teams who could use him as a starting shortstop, tweets MASN's Roch Kubatko."

In an environment where arguably replacement level middle infielders, like Adam Kennedy and Jamey Carroll, are getting multi-million dollar deals, it would be wise to investigate acquiring middle infielders via trade. Andino may not be a world beater, but he posted a 2.0 rWAR and 1.8 fWAR in just 98 games this past seasons. Just yesterday, I was thinking that the Jed Lowrie of the Red Sox might be a good trade target for teams in search of a shortstop.

- "The Tigers aren't ruling out the possibility of one of their young, in-house arms earning the fifth spot in the rotation, writes James Schmehl of MLive.com. If the Tigers turn to the free agent market for a veteran, they prefer one-year deals."

Seth Smith could be a good catch for some team this year.

- Is there a trade to be made around Seth Smith (and Ian Stewart) for Kevin Slowey? Could the Rockies obtain anyone better than Slowey? Matt Garza? Who else? WayRod? Kevin Slowey may be the best they could get for a couple of bats.

- Is Travis Snider for Martin Prado lopsided? If so, in which way? Snider has upside, but would most teams be open to giving him a shot or cutting him loose?

- Luis Ayala may be the best reliever pickup to make. This is an offseason with many relief options, but most are either overpriced players with lots of mileage or damaged goods off the scrap heap. Finding the right player, who can outperform his free agent contract is the goal for every GM. I'm interested to see what Brian Cashman thinks of Ayala and if he'll spend to keep him in pinstripes.

Koronka warming up in front of Larry Rothschild in 2005.

- Congratulations are in order for former major league pitcher, John Koronka. The Cubs hired their former southpaw as a regional scout, in charge of Florida.

- "The Mets lengthy shopping list consists of a closer, setup man, utility infielder, two backup outfielders, and a catcher, according to Jon Heyman of the MLB Network"

Now, Sandy Alderson is one of the team executives I respect the most. I met Sandy Alderson at the Winter Meetings in Dallas five or six years ago, after accepting a job offer from the triple-A team in his organization. That being said, the Heyman tweet above sounds like a feeble plan for a lousy team. For a team in the #1 market in the world, the 'shopping list' should consist of a starting pitcher, a starting infielder, a starting outfielder, and more than one bullpen arm. Do any Met fans disagree?

Andrew Bailey is not long for the A's.

- The Red Sox will make an attempt on Andrew Bailey. Why?? Haven't we learned that high-priced closers are bad investments? His contract isn't outrageous, but his income will rise soon, hence the A's are shopping him.

In this day and age, I wouldn't want my team to trade for any experienced reliever with a rising price tag. As a Cubs fan, for example, I want the Cubs to trade Carlos Marmol and stock the 'pen with inexpensive, hard-throwing kids.

Keep in mind, Andrew Bailey gained his experience by emerging from the A's farm system after they traded away the soon-to-be-paid Huston Street.

- The Dodgers signed Aaron Harang to a 2yr/$12mm deal. As an affordable flyball pitcher pitching more than half of his games in a pitcher's park, this could be a good marriage. Future results will tell how much his performance is worth, but his 2011 season teetered on the edge between replacement level and above.

The unofficial kickoff to the Winter Meetings was today, when the Golden Era Veterans Committee submitted their ballots on the Hall of Fame candidacy of ten individuals: former players Ron Santo, Gil Hodges, Ken Boyer, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Allie Reynolds, Luis Tiant, and executives Charlie Finley and Buzzie Bavasi.

Barry Bloom, of mlb.com, provides background on the ten nominees and lists the members of the voting committee: Hall of Famers Hank Aaron, Al Kaline, Ralph Kiner, Tommy Lasorda, Juan Marichal, Brooks Robinson, Don Sutton and Billy Williams; executives Paul Beeston, Bill DeWitt, Roland Hemond, Gene Michael, and Al Rosen; and media members Dick Kaegel, Jack O'Connell and Dave Van Dyck.

The Ron Santo fan club has been planning a Hall of Fame party for over 30 years.

It's an honor to simply be considered, but it would be hard to see Ron Santo get overlooked again. As an aficionado of Cuban baseball history, it would be rewarding to see the stories my father told me of Minnie Minoso and Tony Oliva immortalized in Cooperstown. The Luis Tiant story also transcends generations from Cuba, but his chances at getting good news tomorrow are between slim and none.

Really, though, who knows? Veteran committees can be unpredictable, considering their voting are often guided by the emotional dynamics of personal relationships.

In last year's Hall of Fame Sneak Peek, we expected Pat Gillick and Marvin Miller would get voted in by a different veterans committee, but they only elected Gillick. He joined the BBWAA ballot inductees Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven.

We found last year's voting interesting, particularly with the new blood of accomplished hitters from the Selig Era.

2011 voting results below:


Barry Larkin is knocking on Cooperstown's door, after receiving 62.1% in his second year on the ballot. It will be interesting to see if Jack Morris's case is strengthened or weakened by Bert Blyleven's induction. Lee Smith will likely never get over the 75% hump. Jeff Bagwell should get in this season, or next, as he should have made it last year. Perhaps, a small group of voters are doubting his cleanliness during the Selig Era. For what it's worth, we think Bagwell was clean. Mark MgGwire received the most votes out of any widely suspected steroid user, with 19.8% of the vote, his fifth year of eligibility. Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez barely stayed on the ballot, while Kevin Brown just missed.

Looking ahead to this year's balloting, the Baseball Writers Association of America ballots are due in by December 31st. Players eligible for induction one the ballot are as follows, and voters are able to vote for a maximum of ten players.

Jeff Bagwell

Bagwell should get in.

Jeromy Burnitz
Vinny Castilla
Juan Gonzalez
Brian Jordan
Barry Larkin
Javy Lopez
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Bill Mueller
Terry Mulholland
Dale Murphy
Phil Nevin

East coast bias likes Bernie

Rafael Palmeiro
Brad Radke
Tim Raines
Tim Salmon
Ruben Sierra
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Bernie Williams
Tony Womack
Eric Young

Last year, on our fake ballot, we filled it out, voting for the maximum ten names. Three of the people we voted for are not on the ballot this year. Two of our votes went to Blyleven and Alomar, who got in. John Olerud didn't get enough votes to stay on the ballot, sadly joining a group of players, like Bobby Grich, with excellent Hall of Fame cases but only one year on the ballot.

There's one player we voted for last year, who in retrospect is losing our support this year, Fred McGriff. His rightful place in this discussion deserves more time that we will give it now, as should the debate about changing votes from one year to the next. There is a subtlety there, and I'd be glad to discuss it over a beer with any of you, if you're interested.

No-one in the freshman class gets a vote. Bernie Williams and Tim Salmon had storybook careers, just not ending in Cooperstown.

While I wouldn't vote for him, it would be good to see Dale Murphy get increased support from the voters, in his penultimate vote.

After reviewing baseball-reference's page of 2012 potential Hall of Famers one last time, our final ballot settled on:

Tim Raines should join his former teammate, Dawson, in the Coop.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

What would your ballot look like? Let us know in the comment section; you can vote for up to ten.

Thanks for reading!

This past summer, the inside scoop from of LA was that Jonathan Broxton was a country bumpkin. He hated it in LA and would embrace free agency as a chance to relocate to more comfortable surroundings.

You know you're a redneck when...

Earlier this week, Jonathan Broxton signed a one-year deal with the Kansas City Royals.

Dayton Moore, the Senior Vice President-Baseball Operations/General Manager of  the Royals, sees a featuring overpriced starting pitching and non-impact back of the rotation starters available, so it sounds wise to reallocate assets to build a Super Bullpen. The issue we're having with this, however, is why Broxton? In an offseason with many experienced bullpen arms, why invest in an apparent sinking ship?

The numbers on Broxton aren't pretty, per Fangraphs.

Broxton was an elite reliever in 2006, '07, '08, and '09, then injuries and mileage took a noticeable toll on his arm.

His strikeouts are down and his walks are up, never a good sign:

Strikeouts per 9 innings
2009: 13.50
2010: 10.54
2011: 7.11

Walks per 9 innings
2009: 3.43
2010: 4.04
2011: 6.39

Jonathan Broxton is a fastball/slider pitcher, throwing one of them over 97% of the time throughout his career. Unfortunately, both pitches have been failing him more and more.

Fastball Velocity
2009: 97.8 mph
2010: 95.3 mph
2011: 94.1 mph

Fastball Value/100 (wFB/C)
2009: 1.42
2010: 0.07
2011: -0.87

Slider Value/100 (wSL/C)
2009: 3.65
2010: -0.24
2011: -0.58

Last season was really terrible for Jonathan Broxton. Not only did he sport a 1.11 K/BB ratio and 1.89 WHIP, he gave up a Homerun on almost 1 out of every 5 flyballs given up (18.2% HR/FB).

The history of heavy-set relief pitchers rediscovering elite form after a couple of injury-plagued years is unclear to me. Could Broxton come back and pitch at All Star levels again? Sure, he's still throwing at least 94 mph, and looking at his pitch fx, his pitches haven't flattened out that much.

I just don't think I would have invested $4 million dollars on him. Granted, these aren't the days of yesteryear, but since when does gambling $4,000,000 on someone pitching about 65 innings constitute as low-risk/high reward?