Rumors abound that the Minnesota Twins may be charting out a course for Kyle Gibson to join the Major League team's rotation. He's probably one of the five best starters in the Twins organization, but how much of an impact will he actually have upon arrival? Whether you're a Twins fan, a fantasy player, or both, what can we expect from Kyle Gibson?
Photo by Kris J. Murante
Twins fans have been waiting on Kyle Gibson for four years. The Twins selected Gibson 22nd overall in the 2009 MLB Draft. His stock had dropped because of a stress fracture in his wrist. If he hadn't been hurt, he would have been projected as a Top 5 pick. 2009 was not only the first time the MLB draft was televised, longtime readers will remember that was the first time we took notes during the draft. We thought Kyle Gibson was a good risk because the arm injury wasn't in his shoulder or elbow. We wrote that Gibson at 22nd overall could be the steal of the draft, but we were off by 3 picks. The Angels selected Mike Trout with the 25th overall pick.
Kyle Gibson's ascension to the Major Leagues has been sidetracked by Tommy John surgery in September 2011. He's an older prospect, turning 26 on October 23rd, the scheduled date for Game 1 of the 2013 World Series.
In terms of stuff, Kyle Gibson is known to have good command while relying on a fastball that sits around 91-92 mph. He's listed at 6'6" 210 lb, so he should throw with a good downward plane on his pitches.
In his minor league career (368 innings) over four Minor League levels, Gibson boasts a career 3.45 ERA, 0.6 HR/9 and 3.3 K/BB ratio. His Earned Run Average rises by level, but stats acquired while recovering from reconstructive elbow surgery are less significant than numbers produced while pitching healthy.
Minor league splits tell an interesting story about Kyle Gibson. In 15 starts for the Rochester Red Wings this season, his opponent's batting average and OPS show no split advantage...
How Kyle Gibson handles big league left-handed batters could determine how productive he will be for Minnesota.
Fantasy players would care what kind of run support and defense Kiyle Gibson will get after a promotion to the Twins. Advanced metrics do not agree on the worth of the 2013 Twins defense. Baseball Info Solutions ranks them 11th out of 30 in Defensive Runs Saved, but Ultimate Zone Rating ranks them 26th with a -17.2 UZR. Let's take that to mean that we don't know how good the Twins are at defense.
How about their offense? It's probably the 10th best offense in the league, averaging 4.2 runs per game. There are really cool ways of measuring the performances of their individual batters. For example, the Twins are ranked 20th out of 30 MLB teams (10th out of 15 AL teams) in wOBA. According to Fangraphs, they are not especially good base runners. They are ranked 11th out of 15 American League teams in base running. Looking specifically at the bottom line, the Twins rank 10th in the AL in runs scored and runs scored per game.
Photo by Joe Robbins
The best thing Minnesota Twins starting pitchers have going for themselves is their bullpen. Twins relievers have a 2.84 ERA, which is best in the ERA and only trails the Braves' 2.82. The Twins bullpen has the best FIP in all of baseball (3.16). Until/if they trade Glen Perkins, Twins starters should have as much confidence as anyone in their teammates' ability to protect their leads.
All in all, we expect Kyle Gibson to be a valuable part of the Twins rotation for the next handful of years. His fantasy value should be eminent immediately. Unless left-handed batters absolutely hammer him in the big leagues, he should be worth a flyer in just about any fantasy league.
What do you think? Does Kyle Gibson sound like the real deal?
This season is shaping up to have a fantastic rookie class. While the American League boasts a couple of baseball's most elite prospects, in Jurickson Profar and Wil Myers, it's been the National League rookies that have been most impressive this season. Even without Matt Harvey qualifying as a rookie, the 2013 rookie class of starting pitchers in the NL appears to be a group for the ages.
Over the first two and a half months of the season, Shelby Miller has been the brightest star of the group, with impeccable stats through 14 starts this year: 2.08 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 10.01 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. Miller won't turn 23 until October 10th, which makes this Cubs fan very nervous.
The elder statesman of the NL rookie class is the Dodgers' 26-year old Hyun-Jin Ryu. After the Dodgers won the exclusive right to negotiate with Ryu with a $25 million posting fee, they signed him to a $36 million contract over 6 years. He is on his way to being worth every penny. Fangraphs calculates Ryu's performance to have already been worth $8 million to the Dodgers, after just 91 1/3 innings pitched. Ryu's ERA sits at 2.96, making him and Miller the only NL starters with ERA's under 3.00.
Photo by Ross D. Franklin / AP
One of the few bright spots in this shamefully lost season in Miami Jose Fernandez, who was born in Cuba almost 21 years ago (7/31/92). When the Marlins called him up, people were shocked because he's so young and the team is going nowhere. Why start his arbitration clock so that he can go get hammered in the big leagues for a team that's going to lose 100 games with or without him? On the contrary, Fernandez has been incredible. He struggled a bit earlier in the year, but still has season numbers up there with Miller and Ryu. Fernandez has a 3.05 ERA, and his 3.17 FIP and 3.38 xFIP are better than Ryu's. Jose Fernandez has been particularly unhittable of late. In June, Fernandez has a 1.65 ERA, 1.81 FIP, and has held batters to an anemic .127/.211/.157 slash line.
As a brief side note, I wanted to compare Jose Fernandez's 28.2% strikeout rate in June to all other qualified Major League starters in June (he ranks 11th) and marveled at which pitcher came out on top...
The Braves have Julio Teheran, once the top pitching prospect in the country, living up to expectations. After a slow start, where scouts criticized his pitches as "flat" and the results failed to argue the point, Teheran has pitched fantastically. Most notably, Teheran threw 8 innings of 1-hit ball against the Pirates on June 5th. Teheran has pitched better each month, as his ERA by month shows: 5.08 April, 2.60 May, 2.25 June.
If Cubs fans were nervous because the Cardinals continuously reload their rotations with studs like Shelby Miller, they should be downright petrified at seeing Michael Wacha join the team picture. He's still a year or two away from consistently dominating, but he just turns 22 on July 1st. Michael Wacha has plenty of time.
If being a Cubs fan weren't rough enough, we have to attempt to rebuild at a time when the Cardinals are on top of the World, and the Pirates are legitimately good for the first time in 20 years, and the Reds may have the best team of the group. In Pittsburgh, former #1 overall pick, Gerrit Cole, has had a brilliant start to his Major League career. It sounds like Cole will be sent back to triple-A for more seasoning.
Rather than sending Tony Cingrani to the triple-A Louisville Bats, the Reds are moving Cingrani to the bullpen, where he could be a potential X-factor for the Reds. Cingrani could be the difference between the Reds missing the playoffs to playing in the World Series. Time will tell if he can have a magical season, or if the league will adjust to his fastball and punish his lesser offerings. Case in point: Cingrani has a 3.02 ERA and 4.04 FIP. If his ERA can stay closer to 3.00 than 4.00, the Reds should be in good shape.
Todd Kirkland / AP
Earlier this week, the Mets knocked the socks off the National League by showcasing Matt Harvey and rookie Zack Wheeler as the starters for a double-header.
Wheeler is the real deal. With velocity, movement, and improving command, Zack Wheeler will be a strikeout pitcher with low opponents' batting average.
Wheeler must lower his walk rate to reach elite pitcher status, but the smart money is that he'll have that figured out by the end of next season.
Tyler Skaggs should become a good pitcher for the Diamondbacks. At first glance, he looks like he could be a ways away, as he's sporting a 5.40 ERA in three starts. Although it's a ridiculously small sample size, he is showing the ability to strike out Major League hitters (9.2 K/9 this season). His FIP is still high (5.21) because he has given up a home run on 20% of his fly balls. That number should be lower, which is taken account by xFIP calculations and show in his 3.78 xFIP for the year.
Trevor Rosenthal has been a strike-throwing lightning bolt out of the St. Louis bullpen, boasting a 12.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and minuscule 1.77 ERA, when considering his .377 BABIP. For those fellow Cubs fans scoring at home, yes, that's 3 Cardinals pitchers mentioned in this post, compared with zero Cubs players.
The American League has seen a few starts from Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gausman, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi. Their success pales to the good showings from their NL pitchers mentioned above. The best AL rookie pitcher so far has been Dan Straily of the A's. Straily is the only AL pitcher with sub-4.00 numbers in all three ERA, FIP and xFIP.
The strong start of National League rookies extends to comparisons of position players.
Apologies to Nolan Arenado of the Rockies, but his .298 On-Base Percentage is dwarfed by Anthony Rendon's .388. Rendon shifted over to second base to fit a need for the Nationals, but he's a third baseman by trade.
We're buying the hype on Wil Myers for the long run. Over his career, we expect at least 250 home runs from that bat. For the rest of this season, however, our expectations are more bearish. His strikeout rate in the minor leagues rose to cautionary levels, and he had a fairly sizable handedness split, excelling versus left-handed pitchers.
Jose Iglesias is really a shortstop, but he, Profar, and Franklin have all been good enough to receive recognition. Iglesias is trying his best to shed the all-glove/no-bat tag he was given at the inception of his pro career. This season, in 30 games, while still playing marvelous defense on the left side of the infield, Iglesias is hitting .423/.477/.557. Iglesias, Profar, and Franklin make the team. Other rookie AL third basemen have been so lousy that I'm not even going to mention them by name. Avisail Garcia just missed making our Outfield.
Photo by Lenny Ignelzi / AP
It's still early enough in the season for rookie player ranking lists to get flipped on their heads. Up to this point in 2013, the National League rookies are assimilating to the big leagues easier than their AL counterparts. A large part of the baseball world is going ga-ga for Puigmania. Evan Gattis has been pulling off a modern day Paul Bunyan impressions by grippin-and-rippin a heavy bat sans batting gloves. Strong showings from Gyorko, Gregorius and Ozuna, along with a handful of awesome pitching performances, make the 2013 National League rookie class deeper than we've seen in years. For the long term, the American League shows great promise, with some of baseball's most touted rookies (Profar, Myers, Gausman) on the cusp of being full time Major Leaguers.
On Monday afternoon, Jacob Peterson of @JunkStats pointed out an anomaly with Doug Fister's propensity to hit batters this season. As some of you may know, Doug Fister leads the league with 12 HBP. Jacob pointed out the historic territory Fister approaches in terms of total HBP and HBP/BB ratio.
Doug Fister has hit nearly as many batters (12) as he's walked (14).
— Jacob Peterson (@junkstats) June 17, 2013
Kevin Brown owns the highest HBP/BB ratio in history, at 0.48 in 1996; Fister currently has a 0.86 HBP/BB ratio.
— Jacob Peterson (@junkstats) June 17, 2013
Doug Fister is on pace for 29 HBPs. That'd be the most since Chick Fraser had 32 in 1901. No one's had 22+ since 1922.
— Jacob Peterson (@junkstats) June 17, 2013
To take an even closer look, in 1922, Detroit Tigers pitcher Howard Ehmke hit 23 batters. Ehmke definitely liked to throw inside. Across an 8-year span, from 1920 to 1927, by most hit batsmen Ehmke ranked: 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 4th, 1st, 2nd and 1st.
Howard Ehmke had some interesting Career Stats. He was almost perfectly average. His career Win-Loss record was 160-160, along with a career 3.3 BB/9, 3.3 K/9, and 0.99 K/BB ratio.
All time great Walter Johnson hit 20 batters in 1923, but baseball didn't see a pitcher approach these numbers for almost 40 years, when Don Drysdale hit 20 batters in 1961.
It makes sense that a legendary pitcher who threw inside, Don Drysdale, ended up on this list. Bob Gibson was known for throwing inside, but he surprisingly never hit more batters than 13 in 1963.
Don Drysdale's legacy may have been enriched by the fact that after he and a few contemporaries made their mark in the early 60's, high-volume HBP pitchers disappeared from the big leagues for 20-30 years. Batters in the 70's and 80's got out of the way.
Bob Gibson never hit more than 13 batters in one season. Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan each only hit more than 12 batters in a season once in their long careers. Ryan hit 15 in 1971, and Clemens hit 14 in 1995.
The most hit batsmen we've seen in Major League Baseball since Howard Ehmke in 1922 are 21 by the Tom Murphy of the '69 Angels and Kerry Wood, of the doomed 2003 Cubs.
Doug Fister's HBP pace is one to keep an eye on, but regression will limit his season total to the 16-20 range.
His next few games could make things really interesting (in a not interesting at all unless you're into baseball stats kind of way), if he doesn't walk anyone and beans a few more guys.
Not that Fister is choosing to do this, but I've always been a fan of bean-balls over bases-on-balls. At least it doesn't count against your WHIP.
Someone asks him how he knew Tony Parker would be able to develop so many new skills as a player, Popovich muses: “Sometimes, you look to see if the player has a sense of humor. It’s a long season.” Now, see, that’s a fascinating thought. Have you ever heard a coach or scout say that one thing they look for is a sense of humor? But, if you think about it, yes, it makes perfect sense. It IS a long season. And think about how much a sense of humor, an ability to not let the moment’s problems grow too large or too serious, could help a player deal with the madness of an NBA season.
Substitute "MLB" for "NBA" and the statement remains true.
It would be great if Tulane's Ian Gibaut made it to the big leagues one day. Gibaut just finished his Freshman year with numbers as good as, or better, than current Yankee relief pitcher and fellow Tulane alum, Preston Claiborne. Before we get to the numbers, here's the prank that brought us here in the first place:
He doesn't look like it in that video, but Ian Gibaut is listed at 6'3" 215 lb, a similar weight to 6'2" Claiborne. In case you aren't familiar with Preston "Roy" Claiborne, he has been excellent so far in the big leagues:
Preston Claiborne gave up a run today but has had a magnificent start to his #Yankees career: 21 ip, 15 hits, 1 BB, 17 K, 0.86 ERA
— Bobby Aguilera (@BobbyAguilera) June 14, 2013
Ian Gibaut (2013)
40 2/3 ip
2.66 ERA
12 Saves
7.8 H/9
4.0 BB/9
8.4 K/9
Ian Gibaut received the recognition of a prospect outside of elite circles. He was named to the 2012 Texas All-Region 2nd Team. Gibaut's walk rate is an easy red flag to spot in his Freshman numbers. The young man should improve his command before bragging about his command on social media:
Ian Gibaut wasn't drafted out of Lamar High School in Houston, but that could have been due to his high likelihood of attending Tulane. He'll next be eligible in the 2015 MLB Draft.
Five of Gibaut's Green Wave teammates, three pitchers, were drafted in last week's 2013 MLB Draft. The first Green Wave player selected was Senior David Napoli, the Washington Nationals' 8th round selection. In his Tulane career, Napoli started 27 games and relieved in 35 others. Napoli graduated with a 3.64 ERA, 7.8 H/9, 4.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9 career line.
As for the prank itself, personally we'd be pretty upset if something like this happened to us. In spite of Popovich's endorsement for sense-of-humor, Gibaut will need to show better judgement to pro scouts in the future. Officially, we encourage more judicious behavior, read: DO NOT ATTEMPT. Still, if more ballplayers want to pull pranks and share them on Twitter and Vine, we're all for the free entertainment. Just don't injure any Cubs or players on our roto teams.
What do you think? Is Gibaut's prank fair or foul?
This could be the year the Pittsburgh Pirates break their 20-year old postseason drought. It will most certainly be the year they break their 20-year run of finishing below .500.
The big story out of PNC Park tonight was the debut of Gerrit Cole, the number 1 overall pick of the 2011 draft. Since turning professional out of UCLA, Cole has drawn comparisons to Matt Cain and other sturdy starting pitchers. The interesting thing about Gerrit Cole is that he throws very hard, fails to strike out a lot of hitters, but can still miss bats with that fastball.
His season stats before the callup were actually poor for a top prospect. Cole struck out just 17.5% of Triple A batters, good for a paltry 6.2 K/9. He benefited from good defense in Triple A, as illustrated by his .216 BABIP. His 3.99 FIP in Triple A should be alarming, as a 3.99 FIP in the Majors is not top of the rotation production. There is something to be said about how much credit a pitcher should receive for causing weak contact.*
*If anyone knows of a published article, where the author tries to solve how much control a pitcher has on batted ball quality, please share in the comments section or on Twitter.
Tonight, Gerrit Cole struck out the first batter of the game, then just 1 of the last 26 batters he faced. If he has an arsenal of pitches that lead to easy grounders, lazy flyballs, and popups, then we can expect a low BABIP. Today, he didn't walk anyone nor give up and home runs, which helped limit his damage to just 2 runs from 7 hits. Today, he gave up a .292 BABIP, which is an average number. If his norm, at this point in his career, is giving up 2 runs while pitching into the 7th inning, the Pirates will gladly take it. To become a dominant player, Gerrit Cole will need to use his breaking pitches to rack up strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole had swing & miss pct. of 21 on fastball. Only 6 starters higher: Yu, Miller, Harvey, Scherzer, Sanchez & (of course) Kendrick.
— David Schoenfield (@dschoenfield) June 12, 2013
Cole on walking off to standing O:“I was trying not to look up.I felt like I was going to smile and that would not have looked hard or cool"
— Travis Sawchik (@Sawchik_Trib) June 12, 2013
Gerrit Cole was all smiles after his Major League debut (11 June 2013)
Getting back to all the good that's been brewing on the shores of the Allegheny River, by where the Ohio River meets the Monongahela, we wonder if what we see and feel is the truth. Their Senior Vice President/General Manager, Neal Huntington, has a respected tutelage and bright, open mind. He implemented a long-term plan for the Pirates that rebuilt the farm system and is finally beginning to produce admirably at the Major League level.
The Pirates appear to have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They have one of the best outfield duos in either league, with Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte. The lineup and bench also have power, speed, balance, and depth with talented players like Pedro Alvarez, Gaby Sanchez, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, and more. Their starting rotation is highly questionable, but with wide ranging possibilities. With starters like A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Wandy Rodriguez, we wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys won a dozen more games the rest of the way, or lost a dozen.
Reading the standings proves to be murky with the Pirates. The Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds have them as most likely to win the 2nd Wild Card at 54.6%. Confusingly, the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings expect the Pirates to finish with a worse record than the Cubs! Our guess is that the Pirates will win the 2nd Wild Card this season, with the 1st Wild Card going to either St. Louis or Cincinnati. Hopefully, we'll be able to continue enjoying the performances of stars like McCutchen and Marte.
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AP Photo / Jason Redmond
After years of frustration, Kyle Blanks is in a position to succeed with the Padres. Almost exactly four years ago, on June 19, 2009, Kyle Blanks made his Major League debut in San Diego. His size made an immediate impression, standing 6'6" and 265 lb. His production (10 home runs in 54 games, .355 OBP) was good enough to get Padres fans excited about the future. Here was a 22-year old man-child, flashing enough size and power to blast homers out of cavernous Petco Park. Unfortunately, his career was temporarily derailed by a season-ending injury in late August 2009. Blanks missed most of 2010 and 2012 seasons, recovering from Tommy John surgery and a blown out Achilles. Yonder Alonso hit the DL a few days ago, and Kyle Blanks goes from 4th outfielder to starting first baseman. He built up a .305/.407/.564 line in Triple-A and has a .299/.383/.555 line entering tonight's game. If you play fantasy baseball, he could be a sneaky play for the next couple of weeks. If you're just into real baseball, try to catch a Padres game in person or on TV. It's a treat to see someone this big play baseball as well as Kyle Blanks.
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Lastly, a beautiful throw from David Ross of the Red Sox:
In case you missed it, we're recapping the first round of the 2013 MLB Draft for posterity. Once again, MLB Network is doing a fine job without the help of Kevin Millar or Mitch Williams. The real treat in listening to these broadcasts is the insight from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo. For you NFL fans out there, they are sort of like the Todd McShay and Mel Kiper.
It comically looks like Houston has 30 people in their draft room. Shouldn't only people with an essential role be allowed in the war room? With a closer look, but I could be wrong about this, it seems some of the Astros beat writers have been granted access to the team's draft room.
In the main studio building, with all the teams represented, Juan Cruz is at the Astros table. In the background, we see Eric Davis manning the Reds table. It's 80's night at the MLB Draft!
Before we're even ready, Bud Selig takes the podium to announce that the Houston Astros select Mark Appel. They passed on the consensus 1-1 pick last June and ended up with him here. Appel is an expensive pick. Jeff Luhnow and the Astros are showing a different strategy than last season, when they saved money by taking Carlos Correa under slot. This was a bit of a surprise to most pundits, who were expecting them to select Jonathan Gray.
The Cubs should take Jonathan Gray, as they're expected to choose between the Sooner Ace and Mark Appel. As a Cubs fan, I'm kind of leaning towards Gray instead of Kris Bryant because I want them to have a front-line starter. The Roger Clemens and Matt Cain comparables sound great, but taking a college hitter is a much safer proposition than any pitcher. Last season, the Cubs elected a strategy of taking a safe batter early in the first round, then take a run of 7 straight pitchers and 13 of the next 18 picks. That strategy makes sense, since the problem with investing in good young pitchers is that many of them get hurt. So, take a bunch of them and some will stay healthy.
Surprise, surprise! The Cubs took Kris Bryant, the power hitting With the large investments required for early first round draft choices, it makes sense to go for the safer pick, while hoping to find a few arms that can help the system in the next 10 of the next 15 picks.
More noticeably, the mock drafts I looked at were wrong again. Most had the Cubs picking between the top two pitchers. All day, I wondered what was it that made the Cubs decide to drop Kris Bryant from their consideration? For weeks, the talk was Gray, Appel, or Bryant. Then, 24 or 48 hours before the draft, we hear the Cubs have narrowed it down to Gray or Appel. Why? How did that rumor begin? I believe that Jim Callis and Keith Law reported it because trustworthy information they received made them believe it was worth reporting. Asking, but not being answered, in the klaw chat didn't help matters, but I digress.
Jonathan Gray, the right-handed falling to Colorado at #3 is perfect. As we say every draft, the Rockies cannot recruit pitching without paying through the nose. No team wants to rely on building an offense through free agency and international signings, but Colorado's circumstances are so different. The Rockies need to draft top-line pitching at every opportunity.
Kohl Stewart goes #4 to the Twins. Entering the draft, Stewart was seen as a high risk/reward pick. If he signed, he'd be a top athlete in any organization, but deals to play college football have been known to scare teams. Jonathan Mayo, on the MLB Network team, is confident that Stewart will sign with the Twins. It makes sense, coming out of high school, to sign if you're selected this highly. Who knows where he'd be picked after three years of college baseball and football.
The Indians took an exciting young player, who may end up being the belle of the ball: Clint Frazier. For some reason, people have been talking about a prejudice against redheads. A personal favorite, Matt Murton, never got a steady shot at starting every day. Instead, Murton took his talents to Japan and has been extremely successful. Clint Frazier is already a more accomplished prospect than Murton ever was. The TV guys are saying he has world class bat speed and may be able to develop all five tools. Someone dropped a Mike Trout comp on him, which I think is a bit much. His swing looked a bit like a right-handed Grady Sizemore's to my unpaid scouting eyes.
Colin Moran, from North Carolina, went 6th to the Marlins. A lazy comp I heard of him before the draft was Dustin Ackley. If team's really expected this Tar Heel to play like Dustin Ackley, would he be getting drafted in the top 10? Peter Gammons seems to be high on this guy. There were whispers on Moran maybe sneaking into the top 3 for a team wanting to spend some of the slot money later. Moran is a left-handed, power-hitting third baseman, taking after his uncle B.J. Surhoff.
Before we know it, the MLB Draft feels like the 5th round of the NFL Draft. Most baseball fans have never heard of Matt Appel, let alone anyone taken after him. In fact, most fans won't hear about Kris Bryant for two or three years, if ever.
The Boston Red Sox surprise a lot of people with the 7th pick by selecting two-way, high school star Trey Ball. Coming out of Indiana, Ball is a 6'5" lefty who can pitch and hit well. Indications are that the Red Sox will want him to pitch and become another Jon Lester type of starting pitcher, who throws strikes at 92-93 mph.
I'm starting to feel the effects of a weak draft, as normally, I would expect a #7 overall pick to have a bit more upside than Peter Gammons alludes to, tweeting soon after the selection:
NL official on Trey Ball:"very athletic, projectionable, power arm with chance to be a number 2"
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) June 7, 2013
With the 8th pick, the Kansas City Process, err Royals take Hunter Dozier, a shortstop who is big and strong, likely pushing him over to 3rd base. Some of the TV pundits seemed to shake their heads at the Dozier pick. I can't wait to hear what Rany thinks. Oh yeah, with Twitter, we don't have to wait!
I made sure not to drive off the road tweeting about the Royals pick. Instead I nearly drove off the road because of the Royals pick.
— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) June 7, 2013
Just got home. I'll be happy to tell you what I think of Hunter Dozier, just as soon as I find out WHO THE HELL IS HUNTER DOZIER.
— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) June 7, 2013
It sounds as thought the Royals are just taking someone they like under slot, and planning on drafting someone over slot with their next pick. The Royals are certainly interesting.
Rounding out the Top 10, the Pirates take a potential 5-tool prep outfielder from Georgia, Austin Meadows, and Toronto selects a right-handed, 6'4" 200 lb pitcher out of California named Phillip Bickford.
The New York Mets have the next pick, and Darryl Strawberry is smiling at the Mets' table. So many 1980's icons at the team tables, it's like we're watching Hot Tub Time Machine 3. Harold Reynolds just called the Mets pick, Dominic Smith, the best left-handed batter to come out of LA since Darryl Strawberry. Smith's video clip with MLB Network taught us that he has a great voice and he likes to cook.
The draft is full of awkward silences. Bud Selig just took his sweet time to tell everyone that the Mariners took some dude from New Mexico who is backed by about 75 white people in his aunt and uncle's living room. D.J. Peterson howled like a boss when Bud called his name. Peterson is sitting on the sofa, next to his younger brother, who's also in the draft pool. This is baseball's version of a poor man's Manning brothers. Can they even be as good as the Vick brothers? Or, the Collins brothers of the NBA?
D.J. Peterson is a corner infielder with power and patience at the plate. All joking aside, he could become a very good hitter.
The polar opposite dilemma that Colorado has in recruiting pitchers is how the Padres find themselves trying to build an offense. Free agent pitchers will carry their own bags to sign with San Diego, but a free agent hitter isn't going to go there and hope everyone understands that 28 home runs would be a monster season. The Padres need to draft hitters. So, they took a toolsy college outfielder named Hunter Renfro. When I'm least expecting it, we get hit with another terrible comp. Someone on TV says that Renfro "has a little bit of Tim Salmon in him". Why? Because they might have a slight resemblance? These piss-poor comp must end.
At Nos. 14 and 15, the Pirates take a prep catcher named Reese McGuire, and the Diamondbacks take Braden Shipley, a right-handed starting pitcher out of the University of Nevada. MLB Network has a camera crew in his home, and Shipley looks really happy to have been drafted.
At #16, the Phillies make an exciting pick, by taking J.P. Crawford, a high school shortstop and Carl Crawford's cousin. He might get moved to the Outfield in pro ball, but Phillies fans won't care where he plays if he can hit and run like a young Carl Crawford. In a pre-recorded clip aired after his pick, Crawford said he'd like to model his game after Derek Jeter because Jeter is so good defensively. I guess we know that J.P. isn't spending too much time reading John Dewan.
Back-to-back Andersons go at 17 and 18. First, the White Sox selected Tim Anderson, a JuCo shortstop. Then, the took college pitcher Chris Anderson.
Jonathan Mayo and Peter Gammons like the Dodgers pick of Chris Anderson. He is a hard thrower that entered the season with high expectations. He faded a bit with fatigue, potential overuse, and a lousy team behind him. The TV guys are trying to give the Dodgers the benefit of the doubt. The conversation is getting a bit circular. Did he have an off year because his college team had an off year? Or, did his college have an off year because he had an off year?
Marco Gonzales of Gonzaga goes to the Cardinals at #19. He's a left-handed pitcher. Jim Callis had him ranked as the 5th best left-handed pitcher. This doesn't sound like last year, when the Cardinals drafted Michael Wacha. After the Wacha pick, everyone was gushing about how fortunate the Cardinals were to have him fall in their laps.
With the 20th pick, Dave Dombrowski added another power arm to the Detroit's minor league stable. The Tigers selected Jonathan Crawford from the University of Florida. Considering how the Tigers had Rick Porcello make 31 starts as a 20-year old, they will probably not take too long to give 21-year old Crawford an opportunity to impress Jim Leyland.
The American League East got better with the 21st and 22nd picks. First, the Tampa Bay Rays selected Nick Ciuffo, a high school catcher, who looks and sounds like he's going to be a good fit for the Rays. Truth be told, the Rays have such a good thing going that it sounds like anyone could be a good fit for the Rays. The 22nd pick wound up being my favorite pick of the first round.
The Baltimore Orioles selected Hunter Harvey, the son of former All-Star closer Bryan Harvey. Hunter comes out of high school, throwing 97 mph, saying he doesn't want to go to college. The Orioles may want to pencil him into a future rotation with Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, but he could also be lightning coming out of the bullpen. MLB Network placed Harvey onto the list of top Orioles prospects immediately.
Baseball has another guy named Alex Gonzalez, as the Rangers made him the 23rd pick of the evening. He's a college right-hander, as the Rangers wisely attempt to stay on top of their division by perpetually competing in the arms race.
Living Legend, Billy Beane, has been thought of as one who prefers the more secure nature of picking college players than high school players because they are closer to the finished product. Imagine my surprise when the Oakland A's took a high school outfielder, named Billy McKinney with their first pick in the draft.
The World Champion Giants selected Christian Arroyo, an 18-year old shortstop from Florida. He was the starting shortstop for the Team USA 18-and-under team. So, he comes with some pedigree behind him. He has a commitment to play for the Gators, but we'll see if San Francisco can convince him to get his career started.
The Yankees had to wait until now to pick, but they actually have more first round picks than any other team, as they will close out the first round with back-to-back picks at 32 and 33. With the 26th pick, the Yankees take Eric Jagielo from Notre Dame, a power-hitting 3rd baseman with a left-handed swing tailor made for Yankee Stadium.
At 27, the Reds selected Phillip Ervin from Samford University. Ervin is a Centerfielder who sounds like he can do everything pretty well without excelling at any tool. He has good speed, can stay in center, and is a good pure hitter with some power. The Denard Span and Andrew McCutchen comps probably represent his optimistic floor and just out of reach ceiling.
The 28th pick, by St. Louis winds up being Rob Kaminsky, another southpaw. He sounds like a "low cieling, but high floor" prospect. I'm not impressed by his prerecorded video piece, nor the scouting video MLB Network just. I don't like to root against kids, but I'm sick of the Cardinals dominating the NL Central and hope this kid stinks. A happier ending would also be to hope he gets traded and succeeds elsewhere. Yeah, let's root for that.
Jonathan Mayo was about to go crazy if no-one selected Ryan Stanek soon, and the Rays helped him calm down with the 29th pick.
From his draft video, we learn that Ryan Stanek has a power arm and acne. The luster from this prospect certainly wore off, as he had too many question marks to go any higher. I wrote above that just about anyone could be a good fit with the Rays. Here's another chance for the team from Tampa to succeed by zigging into Stanek while others were zagging away.
The Rangers take Travis Demeritte, a shortstop from Statham, GA. He could develop into a leadoff hitter and has a nice smile.
Jason Hursch, a college pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, was taken at 31 by the Braves.
The Yankees are about to finish up the first round with two back-to-back picks. No-one has taken Sean Manaea, and he was highly rated coming in. Also, Ian Clarkin is still available and high on most draft boards.
The 32nd pick is amazing. The Yankees took a Centerfielder who is humongous. Aaron Judge, from Fresno State, is listed at 6'7" 255 lbs. Dave Winfield was 6'6" 220. This guy is a monster. I hope he turns out to me good.
The Yankees took Ian Clarkin, a high school left-handed pitcher with the 33rd pick. In his TV interview, Clarkin sounded like he was less than pleased to be joining the Yankee organization. It sounds like he grew up a hater.
The compensation round is about to begin, and this is where we check out. Thank goodness. Thanks for reading! Please feel free to add to the conversation in the comments below.
At a Yankee game a week later, I grabbed a few ballots.
Filling out a ballpark at the ballgame is fun, but most fans don't check stats while making choices. The nuances of their mindset is fascinating. Fans voting at a ballpark will select players they think should start the All Star Game or players they like the most. If they choose to vote on merit over affinity, they still may be overrating the performance of their selections.
Sitting at home, we have a chance to fill out a ballot with more information. 9 1/2 weeks of baseball is too small of a sample size to attribute much value to aggregate stats, such as WAR and various defensive metrics. The title to this post is an exagerration, but we're going to look at All Star teams from various perspectives. How would the construction of one-dimensional teams look?
Note: the official ballot only allows for one write-in vote in each league. We will affix a "(W)" to write-in's.
On Base Percentage (min. 150 PA) First Base
AL: Chris Davis, Orioles .438 OBP
NL: Joey Votto, Reds .444
It was almost Adam Lind of the Blue Jays, who has a .411 On Base Percentage. Unfortunately, he would be a write-in at DH, and we are using our American League write-in for an outfielder this time around...
OBP is a stat that doesn't stabilize until 500 plate appearances. To reiterate, these are unique ways of looking at the All-Star ballot, not a statistical exercise to measure player value.
Let's get weird and look at defensive runs saved, as provided by Baseball Info Solutions, for less than half a season...
Looking at Defensive Runs Saved calls for FIVE right-in votes, but the aforementioned limit made us exclude Diamondback teammates, Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock, as well as Craig Gentry of the Rangers.
Highlighting an Astros player is bittersweet. We enjoy rooting for the Astros, and Brandon Barnes has looked like a really good defensive Center Fielder. Suddenly, it's clear to me that we may not see a Cubs player make it to the top of any of these groups. We aren't looking at lefty/righty platoon splits, althought the Cubs have some nice platoons at work. Speaking of platoon splits and Cubs, former Cub Jeff Baker leads all of Major League Baseball with an .889 slugging percentage versus lefties.
Count me among those excited for when Andrelton Simmons will have played enough innings to make his defensive statistics significant. He is a world class defender and makes Gold Glove caliber shortstop look easy. Andrelton Simmons throws with an effortless fluidity that accentuates the reliability of his arm.
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
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Baserunning Runs Above Replacement (per Fangraphs) First Base
AL: Nick Swisher, Indians 0.9 BsR
NL: Joey Votto, Reds 2.0
Weighted Runs Created Plus (per Fangraphs) First Base
AL: Chris Davis, Orioles 207 wRC+
NL: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks 176
#Orioles' Chris Davis is actually first player all-time with 20 homers and 20 doubles before his team's 60th game. #Astros#MLB
— STATS LLC (@STATS_MLB) June 6, 2013
Second Base
AL: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 135
NL: Marco Scutaro, Giants 129
Troy Tulowitzki is now third in the majors in wRC+ at 178, behind only Davis/Cabrera, neither of whom are shortstops.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) June 6, 2013
Third Base
AL: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 194
NL: David Wright, Mets 138
The best hitter in baseball, Miguel Cabrera, overshadows a breakout by Josh Donaldson, who places second in the American League with a 155 wRC+.
Evan Gattis has a 155 wRC+ and is slugging like Paul Goldschmidt. Unfortunately for our decision, he's been too much of a part-time catcher to merit selection over superstar Buster Posey.
Designated Hitter
AL: David Ortiz, Red Sox 165
Outfield
AL: Mike Trout, Angels 146
AL: Coco Crisp, Athletics 140
AL: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 135
NL: Bryce Harper, Nationals 166
NL: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 166
NL: Michael Cuddyer, Rockies 163
Good on Coco Crisp. He's known for his defense and baserunning, yet he shows up in this small sample wRC+ query. Mark Trumbo, of the Angels, suffers the same as Evan Gattis above. He has a 136 wRC+, but he has a couple of issues that hold him behind Jose Buatista. First, Trumbo is on the ballot as a DH. Second, he's spent a good amount of time at first base.
CarGo and Cuddyer also made the NL team with OBP. Using wRC+, Bryce Harper replaces Shin-Soo Choo. Where's Domonic Brown? His 145 wRC+ falls short, mainly due to his .320 OBP. It's also surprising to see the AL outfield's wRC+'s dwarfed by their NL counterparts.
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True Average (per Baseball Prospectus) First Base
AL: Chris Davis, Orioles .399 TAv
NL: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks .357
Second Base
AL: Ian Kinsler, Rangers .308
NL: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals .313
Third Base
AL: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers .371
NL: David Wright, Mets .300
Donaldson is overshadowed again by Cabrera. This time, his .334 TAv is the second highest by a third baseman in Major League Baseball. The top six third basemen in TAv are in the American League. Collectively, as we saw above, AL third basement are terrible baserunners.
Carlos Santana, Goldschmidt, and Kinsler make their first appearances here, but TAv is a very well respected statistic, when it comes to True Talent. It'll be interesting to see if the players highlighted by TAv have better second and third acts to the season than players who stood out in less meaningful metrics.
Designated Hitter
AL: David Ortiz, Red Sox .333
No surprise to see Ortiz shining once again. Remember when he was completely "done"? It was exactly four years ago today that Big Papi hit his nadir. On the morning of June 6, 2009, David Ortiz was batting .188/.281/.288 with 1 home run and 52 strikouts. Writers, fans, and talking heads wondered if the Red Sox could just ask Big Papi to go home. In the four calendar years since his low point, David Ortiz has hit an additional 121 home runs. Since the start of the 2010 season, David Ortiz is batting .300/.393/.565. It's talent and hard work, not scientists, that are responsible for Ortiz's fabulous production in his late-30's. Right?
Outfield
AL: Mike Trout, Angels .337
AL: Coco Crisp, Athletics .330
AL: Daniel Nava, Red Sox .326 (W)
NL: Bryce Harper, Nationals .336
NL: Shin-Soo Choo, Reds .327
NL: Michael Cuddyer, Rockies .324
Second Base
AL: Ben Zobrist, Rays 20.5%
NL: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals .313
Zobrist is a super utility player, but he is listed at second base on the ballot, has played most of this season at second base, and has a sizeable enough lead against the next closest second baseman (Robinson Cano 15.5 OBI%).
More Big Papi! He'll cruise to his ninth All-Star Game, as he surpassed a million votes before any other DH cracked 700,000.
Outfield
AL: Kelly Johnson, Rays 24%
AL: Alex Gordon, Royals 20.7%
AL: Daniel Nava, Red Sox 20.1% (W)
NL: Angel Pagan, Giants 23.6%
NL: Michael Cuddyer, Rockies 21.1%
NL: Marlon Byrd, Mets 20.1% (W)
Marlon Byrd makes it into this post, and still there's no Cubs player to be found.
We don't condone gambling, but it's likely that someone can win a bar bet with the knowledge that Freddie Freeman has the best OBI% in all of baseball.
Our last arbitrary parspective will be with the percentage of batter's balls in play are line drives. Line Drive Rate is one of the few statistics that stabilizes with just 150 plate appearances.
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Line Drive Rate (per Fangraphs) First Base
AL: James Loney, Rays 30.3 LD%
NL: Joey Votto, Reds 28.9%
The same way Don Cooper can convert a failed starter into a 15-game winner, the Rays have a knack for finding first basemen who couldn't hit "send" and turning them into Don Mattingly clones. This year, Loney is batting .324/.390/.516. Those are better than Nomar Garciaparra's career numbers. It's only 211 plate appearances for Loney, but after what Casey Kotchman did with the 2011 Rays, Loney may have a similar run.
According the Baseball-Reference, Casey Kotchman's offensive production in the 2011 season is an outlier.
Over his 10-year career, Casey Kotchman generated 3.6 of Offensive Wins Above Replacement. 3.4 of those Wins were from the 2011 season alone.
Second Base
AL: Howie Kendrick, Angels 26.2%
NL: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 28%
This exercise has brought to attention the depth of the second base position in the American League. Personally, I think that Robinson Cano is the best second baseman in the world. However, he hasn't come up once in any of the statistical perspectives we looked at today. Cano leads AL second basemen in home runs and RBI, but that's about it. For his outstanding line drive rate, Howie Kendrick becomes the fifth second basemen highlighted today, joining Pedroia, Ackley, Kinsler, and Zobrist.
This probably explains one of the most likely reasons why Chris Johnson is one of the most impatient hitters in the Major Leagues. He expects to hit line drives.
Designated Hitter
AL: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 22.4%
Outfield
AL: Daniel Nava, Red Sox 26.9% (W)
AL: Andy Dirks, Tigers 26.9%
AL: Austin Jackson, Tigers 26.5%
NL: Jay Bruce, Reds 29.3%
NL: Carlos Beltran, Cardinals 24.6%
NL: Nate Schierholtz, Cubs 24.4%
How about that?! After giving up all hope in seeing a Cubs player at the top of any of these statistical categories, Nate Schierholtz, of all people, makes an apperance. Because Garrett Jones spends much more time at first base than in the outfield, his 24.6 LD% wasn't enough to vault him ahead of Schierholtz's 24.4%.
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In conclusion, we're filling out 2013 All-Star Ballot as follows. How are you filling out yours?
First Base
AL: Chris Davis, Orioles
NL: Joey Votto, Reds
Second Base
AL: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
NL: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
Outfield
AL: Mike Trout, Angels
AL: Coco Crisp, Athletics
AL: Alex Gordon, Royals
NL: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
NL: Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
NL: Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
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This Moment in Appreciating Adrian Beltre GIF courtesy of Drew Sheppard Adrian Beltre has the toughest draw of all present day stars. Make no mistake, not only is Adrian Beltre is an All Star; he's a SUPERSTAR! He's simply at the same position, and in the same league, as the best hitter in baseball.
For over a month now, I've noticed media members covering the Mets will disturbingly criticize Lucas Duda for taking too many pitches.
On April 24th, Gary Cohen, one of the Mets' TV announcers, went as far as to say "You don't want Lucas Duda to be walking as often as he is."
Cohen's nonsensical remark was barely tweet-worthy. This post was prompted by some completely useless garbage that I heard while landing on Mike Francesa's radio show for about 30 seconds this afternoon.
The Mets announcer, Gary Cohen just said "you don't want Lucas Duda to be walking as often as he is." And, he's a Mets fan.
— Bobby Aguilera (@BobbyAguilera) April 25, 2013
"A walk is as good as a hit" is heard on Little League fields across America. Sabermetrics has shown that's not entirely true, as a walk is 90-something% as good as a single and progressively worse than extra-base hits. In this case, it's true in a basic sense. Generally speaking, when a player is up to bat he can either (a) get a hit (b) make an out, or (c) take a walk.
It's unreasonable to expect all baseball media members to immediately embrance advanced sabermetrics. These aren't exactly openminded Zen Buddhists, but we're also not talking about complicated concepts here.
People complaining that Duda is too patient at the plate believe that he is passing up opportunities to hit for extra bases and/or knock in baserunners. There is value in recognizing the circumstances of each at bat because there are times when you need a sacrifice fly more than a walk. The problem is with people opining that Duda's patience is a constant flaw in his game. They want him to be more aggressive, period.
The method of achieving offensive success in baseball is to avoid outs. Hitting for power accelarates scoring, which is key because avoiding outs is difficult. Avoiding outs is paramount.
This afternoon on the radio, well-known nincompoop Mike Francesa went on a worhtless rant that boiled down to "Duda is a .200 hitter. He's not a .300 hitter like Murphy. You don't want Murphy up in that situation. Murphy is a .300 hitter. Duda's not a .300 hitter."
This line of thinking is more than worthless. It's harmful. There are impressionable fans listening who don't know that the guy on TV or on the radio is spewing garbage. We don't need to raise more Mets fans who think a guy can actually walk too much.
For illustrative purposes, below are the ten (10) Mets players who have recorded the most outs this season. In it, we can find sabermetric arguments for Duda.
Mike Francesa doesn't ever need to mention On-Base Percentage, but shouldn't he know Lucas Duda is good at getting on base? Simply put, David Wright is the best hitter and Lucas Duda is the second best hitter on the Mets. This season, Lucas Duda is 2nd on the Mets in Home Runs, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+.
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