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Week 7 NFL Picks

Just for fun because, as Drew Magary said...
"because making brutally incorrect predictions never stops being enjoyable. Plus, if one of these predictions stumbles bass ackwards into being correct, then I can totally say I'm way smart for foreseeing it."
here are our Week 7 NFL picks.  As we suggested last week, if you're in Vegas or otherwise inclined to gamble, you should probably gamble on the opposite of these...

Week 7 NFL Picks
Big Ben's taking his talents to...
Steelers -3 @ Miami
Falcons -3.5 vs. Bengals
Jags +9 @ Kansas City
Eagles +3 @ Tennessee
Redskins +3 @ Chicago
Saints -12.5 vs. Browns
Ravens -12.5 vs. Bills
49ers -2.5 @ Carolina
Rams +3 @ Tampa Bay
Seahawks -7 vs. Cardinals
Patriots +2.5 @ San Diego
Raiders +7 @ Denver
Vikings +3 @ Green Bay
NY Giants +3 @ Dallas

Our "locks" are the Redskins, Rams, and Eagles.  We feel good about the Monday Night pick of the Giants, too.

Enjoy the games, if you get them on TV.  Go Bears!

Perceptions of Yankee Fandom

Editorial note: this may lead nowhere, no hard feelings if you stop reading what I think may be a nonsensical and misguided diatribe.  Thanks for stopping by.

Jealousy* (n.): resentment against a rival, a person enjoying success or advantage, etc., or against another's success or advantage itself.

Pride (n.): a high or inordinate opinion of one's own dignity, importance, merit, or superiority, whether as cherished in the mind or as displayed in bearing, conduct, etc.

*We decided to try something other than m-w.com, so tonight's definitions are courtesy of dictionary.com.

Perceptions of Yankee Fandom
Hank Borowy went 11-2
with a 171 ERA+ for the Cubs
after they bought him from the
Yankees for $97,000 in July 1945
Something else occurred to me in the last few days while watching the postseason through the eyes and hearts of different fandoms.  If you've read this space regularly, you'll know that I subscribe to the belief that sports fans should be able to pick whom to root for in postseason matchups when their favorite teams are not involved.  It's not full blown bandwagon hopping because no-one should really go crazy if the side they choose wins.  It's more or less a way to watch the game with some rooting interest, even if you're not gambling or playing fantasy baseball.  As a Cub fan, I'm a seasoned veteran of choosing sides in the postseason.  In fact, ALL Cubs fans have had to choose a consolation championship to root for in the World Series since 1945.  This postseason, I've rooted for the Twins, the Yankees (the night Carl Pavano pitched for the Twins), the Rangers, the Reds, and the Giants.  We're not here to talk about bandwagons or second favorite teams.  Let's try to have an impartial look at Yankee fandom.

As many of you know, I live in lower Manhattan. I say "many of you know" because I imagine only about a dozen readers, knowing most of you personally.  So, as you know, I'm surrounded by Yankee fans, even married to one.  They don't like that I'm rooting for the Rangers.  What's the appropriate response to them? Is "bafangoo" good?

Because of my neighbors, local media, and spouse, I have intimate knowledge of the angst Yankee fans feel when their team isn't winning.  It is with a palpable disbelief and disgust that these fans react to the lead the Rangers have taken. Let's ignore the fact that the Rangers have been pummeling the Yankees.  If it weren't for a complete R-Wash and bullpen meltdown in Game 1, the Yankees would have been swept.  We sit here, as the teams board planes for Dallas to play a Game 6, exposed to the real 'Pride of the Yankees'.

Lou Gehrig is the Iron Horse, a truly amazing story.  These days, team pride, winning, even mystique and aura, make up the fabric of real Yankee pride.  A high opinion of one's importance and superiority comes with 27 world championships.  Where is the tipping point for the fans who have an inordinate amount of pride?  Probably somewhere around five championships in the past fifteen years.

Perceptions of Yankee Fandom
Let's sign Lee, Beltre, Werth, Crawford
and win a couple more of these.
"The Yankees are LOSING?! Change the channel."  I've seen this at home, and we've seen this at the ballpark.  There were less than 5,000 people in the stands for the final outs of Games 3 and 4 in Yankee Stadium.  These fans are spoiled.  On the northside of Chicago, each postseason inning is a treasure.  In the Bronx, it's a birthright.  If the Yankees can't beat Cliff Lee, just throw $160 million at him in November and win the title next year.  Other teams' fanbases don't have that mindset, which may lean towards the root of why people hate the Yankees, why people hate Duke basketball, the Lakers, LeBron James, the Dallas Cowboys... jealousy.

People hate the Yankees, but they'd love their team to BE the Yankees.  Who wouldn't want a team that competes EVERY SEASON?  Maybe a communist, but even communists make great baseball teams.  Just ask Yunesky Maya what it's like to play for Fidel.

Perceptions of Yankee Fandom
Sorry for doing this, but I must take you on tangents with me.  Are we even talking about real "pride"?  There are good attributes to being proud.  Probably more than negative.  Perhaps, we're talking more about a sense of entitlement.  I mean, there are other forms of pride that don't result in resentment, jealousy, and hate.  For example, how about this piece from our favorite writer, Joe Posnanski... It is a piece on then Royals' manager Tony Pena... He has unmistakable pride, but I couldn't imagine hating on it...
Tony Pena drove slowly on the bumpy dirt road, past banana trees. "Juan Marichal lived not so far away," he said softly. But his mind drifted elsewhere. He was quiet again. He could not stop looking at the trees.
"People don't know how heavy bananas are," he finally said. "You drag them and drag them until you cannot move. People don't know. Your whole body hurts. You can't even sleep at night because your whole body hurts."
Pena said he has never lived a day — not a single day as player or coach or manager — when he did not think about what might have been. He imagined himself pulling bananas, the way all his friends, all his loved ones, everyone he grew up knowing, ended up pulling bananas."
People in the Dominican are so happy," he said. "That's what I love about my country. People are so poor. They have no money. They live in these little houses. Everybody thinks they must be very sad. But they are not. They are so happy."
He cried again. And he drove over a ditch into a little town. In the center of town, there was a dirt field. Children played baseball.
"Look," he said. "My country."
I mean, sh*t man. That's pride, too. To digress, I have to go back and look at elements of the definitions.  These are the parts of the definitions that I think are at the root of Yankee fandom.

Pride: "an inordinate opinion of one's superiority"
Jealousy: "resentment against a rival's advantage"

Jealousy obviously comes from wanting what someone else has.   It's a natural feeling.  It's only a sin to covet thy neighbor's wife; it's okay to covet their car, yard, pool, deck, grill, windows, satellite package, Spanish style roof, or the way they seem to always win.  Sure, you could be a better person and simply admire them, but isn't it just easier - and more satisfying - to be jealous of them.  If they have some sort of unfair advantage, then forget it.  Jealousy is almost a necessity.

Perceptions of Yankee Fandom
"Nobody likes you, Pavano!"
Yankee fans don't want to admit it, and haters won't let them forget it.  The Yankees have an unfair advantage because of the size of the market they dominate and the amounts of revenues they bring in.  It leads to the highest payroll in the league.  You can't buy championships, but with an astronomical payroll, you can buy a perpetual contender.  What's the simplest, most accurate explanation as to how?  It's by covering up your mistakes.  Did you accidentally overpay Carl Pavano by $35 million or AJ Burnett by $50 million?  Don't worry about it; just sign Cliff Lee, a few good bullpen arms, and a couple more baseball lifers as front office executives.

That's it. That's capitalism, the American way. We want to Win.  Baseball fans, sports fans, business people, are the same: they want to win.  Unless your ballpark hosts a daily cocktail party, with bikini drenched sunbathing in the bleachers, cough ahhemCubs cough, you're going to want to win.

Perceptions of Yankee Fandom
So, you still don't think people
hate the Yankees and Cowboys?
When did this become a socio/psychology blog?  I can't believe if any of you made it to this point already, where the heck is this headed?  I think we have to leave this discussion here because it's just getting too weird.  The thought process now goes to hatred of rivals that do not have an obvious advantage.  Why do people hate the Cowboys?  Football traditionally has a salary cap.  Is it how pride can lead to an inordinate amount of superiority?  Does the hatred of Duke basketball come from a more immature version of jealousy?  They don't really have an unfair advantage, compared to most NCAA teams.  Duke haters are jealous of their success.  Maybe they just hate the attitude of Duke players.  Christian Laettner stepped on that guy's chest and basically thought he was entitled.  They're smug.  They're arrogant.  That's right, isn't it?  It's funny because someone who's smug will never admit it.  There's a fine line between confidence and arrogance, and it's almost like beauty in that it belongs in the eye of the beholder.

Adrian Beltre Sweepstakes

Adrian Beltre Sweepstakes
The Detroit Tigers signed Brandon Inge to a 2-year $11.5 million contract extension this afternoon.  Inge is known for being versatile and playing very good defense at third base.

Adrian Beltre is by far and away the best free agent 3rd baseman this offseason.

After Adrian Beltre, the 2nd tier drops to guys like Jorge Cantu, Miguel Tejada, and expected non-tender players like Edwin Encarnacion.  Brandon Inge is good.  He's really not bad.  This was a nice, safe move by Detroit because he could have been the 2nd best free agent, if he had hit the open market.  However, please stay with us, Brandin Inge not nearly as good as Adrian Beltre.

Adrian Beltre SweepstakesLet's look at some basic numbers:

Offensively
wOBA
Adrian Beltre: .390
Brandon Inge: .314

Defensively
Ultimate Zone Rating
Adrian Beltre: 11.8
Brandon Inge: 3.1

Overall
Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference)
Adrian Beltre: 6.1
Brandon Inge: 2.5

Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs)
Adrian Beltre: 7.1
Brandon Inge: 2.1

With all the money the Tigers have to spend this offseason, I'm a bit surprised by the move.  I thought Detroit was a likely destination for Beltre, but I guess we can cross them off his list of potential landing spots.  For now, it looks like Adrian Beltre will likely end up with one of the following teams:

Adrian Beltre Sweepstakes
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Angels
Mariners
Cardinals
Giants

Other teams are known to look for a third baseman, but I just don't see Cleveland, Florida, or Oakland taking the necessary financial plunge.  Scott Boras, you're on the clock.

A New Breed of Yankee Fans

I have two friends from college who are from Baltimore, were Orioles fans, and somehow adapted and became Yankee fans.  At different times, I've given them each grief over the matter.  I mean, those are bitter rivals.  Should I abandon the Cubs and become a Cardinals fan?  (Don't answer that.)  Actually, I really like the Reds right now.  Sheesh.  Anyway, I may be infatuated by several guys on the Reds, but I'm not worried about becoming a Reds fan.  I'll never be a Reds fan, unless my son or daughter to be named later becomes their GM one day.

A New Breed of Yankee Fans

Anyway, I was thinking about these two friends this evening, when three immediately notorious Yankee fans played a part in making sure the Rangers Nelson Cruz didn't intercept Robinson Cano's homerun in the 2nd inning of tonight's ALCS game 4.  Those fans have already been called "obnoxious" and "jersey shore".

I wondered if these friends have any bad flashbacks to the Jeffrey Maier scene?  They probably hated that kid, and now they're probably rooting for the three neanderthals that helped Cano?  I guess it's not so complex, but still there has to be a little Orioles fan inside of them crying to be saved.

A New Breed of Yankee Fans

Yeah, Sindler and Margie, I'm looking at you.

2010 Ex-Cub Factor

There's reason for hope in Philadelphia.  Although Roy Halladay lost game one of the NLCS, the infamous ex-Cub factor, which was orignially penned by Ron Berler in the Boston Herald on October 15, 1981, gives hope to the Phighting Phills.  It was a scalding essay about the Billy Goat Curse following former Cubs to their next destination, and any team with more than three former Cubs was doomed from postseason success.

2010 Ex-Cub Factor
This is the closest any Cub has come
to celebrating a title in 102 years.
The only season when a team survived to win the World Series with a large ex-Cub contingency was in 2001, when the Diamondbacks defeated the Yankees.  That team from Arizona had Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Miguel Batista, and Mike Morgan.

This year, it looks like the Phillies have the billy goat on their side, the Giants aren't looking too bad, but the two American League teams have a bit of stink on them.

The Phillies only carry one former Cub, and that is Ross Gload, who is 0 for 2 in two pinch-hitting appearances this NLCS.  Not only is Gload the only former Cub on the Phillies' NLCS roster, but he only played 18 games for the Cubbies way back in 2000.

2010 Ex-Cub Factor
Kung-Fu Fontenot
The San Francisco Giants, who are facing the Phillies in Game 3 of the NLCS this afternoon, have Mike Fontenot on the active roster.  In fact, he's been starting most games because Kung-Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval, stopped hitting.  Fontenot was a big part of what the Cubs failed to accomplish the past few years, so you never know what that can bring to the team.  As far as inactive players, the Giants also have Mark DeRosa on the DL and in the dugout.  We're not sure what that means.

Over in the American League, the Ex-Cub Factor is more prevalent.  Which is worse?  The Rangers have a utility infielder named Andres Blanco, who was on the Cubs as recently as last year.  Uh oh.  They also have a lefty reliever, named Clay Rapada, who already contributed in the Game 1 loss.  Rapada faced one batter for the Major Leage Cubs in 2007.  At least he got that guy out.  What is unclear is whether or not the Ex-Cub factor affects Josh Hamilton, whom the Cubs drafted in the Rule 5 draft and immediately sold to the Reds.  I'm leaning towards not counting him.

2010 Ex-Cub Factor
"We have faith in A.J."
If this curse means anything, the Yankees are likely in trouble.  They have Sergio Mitre in long relief and Kerry Wood in charge of the 8th inning(s).  They both pitched for Dusty Baker in Chicago, which is a bad sign.  Not only that, the Yankees' manager, Joe Girardi, played seven seasons for the Cubs in two stints from 1989-92 and 2000-2003.

Perhaps, no team will actually suffer from this curse, since none of them have more than two active former Cubs.  Still, if less is more, I think we can expect a Phillies/Rangers World Series.  Speaking of a Phillies/Rangers World Series, why did the Phillies trade Cliff Lee to Seattle again?

Gambling with George Costanza

Sometimes with playoff baseball, I think you just need to let the games speak for themselves.  We can try to write our feelings over what's been happening on TBS and Fox, but the game doesn't need just more noise.  Instead, we think everyone should be able to appreciate the LCS's for what they are and have been so far.

In order to keep our minds nimble, I thought it'd be fun to look at the NFL schedule and see which games I would gamble on if I were in Las Vegas.  If any of you readers are near a sportsbook, gamble online, have a legal bookie, my advice to you is this: bet the opposite.  George Costanza pioneered the Do-the-Opposite movement in the mid 90's.  Trust me when I say that is wise when looking at my picks.

Gambling with George Costanza
Today is Turner the Burner Day
For this exercise, I looked at all the games without a point spread and tried to guess who'd win and by how much.  Then, I check the spreads and see where I get the most points based on my crude predictions.  I would only bet on the games I feel extra comfortable with, even though it usually ends in a loss.

This week, it looks like we got three* "locks":

Atlanta +3 @ Philly
Baltimore + 3 @ New England
Minnesota -1.5 vs. Dallas

*If you're inclined to take Monday night's game, we feel very good about Tennessee -3 @ Jacksonville.

Again, I do NOT suggest anyone putting any money on these three picks.

If you really want to make some money, you could best against all of my picks for this week - if forced to bet on all the games.  Here are the picks.  It'll be fun on Monday and Tuesday to see how bad these are.

Atlanta +3 @ Philly
Baltimore + 3 @ New England
Minnesota -1.5 vs. Dallas
Chicago -7 vs. Seattle
Detroit +10 @ NY Giants
St. Louis +9 vs. San Diego
NY Jets -3.5 @ Denver
Indy -3.5 @ Washington
Tenn -3 @ Jags
Pitt -14.5 vs Cleveland
Green Bay -3.5 vs. Miami
New Orleans -5 vs Tampa Bay
Houston -5 vs. Kansas City
San Francisco -7 vs. Oakland

The Bobby Cox Tattoo

A picture is worth a thousand words.  What about a picture of a 23-year old's Bobby Cox tattoo on his leg?

The Bobby Cox Tattoo

h't PTI.  This has left us speechless.  All we can say is that Wilbon was right when saying that this kid needs to do some quad work because his thigh is so thin, it looks like a forearm.