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This happened yesterday, but in this Mets fan's defense, Desi Relaford's best season was with the Mets.


According to Fangraphs, Desi Relaford earned -0.7 WAR over his 11-year career, in spite of 2.0 WAR in his one season with the Mets. Baseball-Reference tells a similar story, with -0.5 WAR for his career in spite of 2.2 WAR with the Mets.

It's been a brutally cold winter across most of the Northern hemisphere this year, with feeble warmth from the hot stove. We are ready for warm weather and ballgames. At least the ballgames start this week. Let's look forward to the upcoming season with predictions on standings, the postseason, and awards. Please add your predictions to the comments. Enjoy!

NL East Predicted Standings
Washington Nationals 91-71

Will 2014 be the Year of Strasburg? (Jonathan Ernst / Getty Images)

Atlanta Braves 84-78
New York Mets 78-84
Philadelphia Phillies 75-87
Miami Marlins 66-96

Each division in the National League has a clear favorite. Washington has separated itself from Atlanta in recent weeks because the Braves pitching staff has been decimated by injuries. Their current starting rotation looks like Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Alex Wood, and a couple of question marks to be filled by David Hale and Aaron Harang. The Nationals, on the other hand, boast a 1-2-3 as good as any in the game with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez. Washington addressed one of their greatest weaknesses from last season by building a stronger bench. This year, with Anthony Rendon penciled in at 2nd base, Danny Espinosa will bring his bat to the bench. Add to that, a decent tandem of 4th and 5th outfielders in Nate McLouth and Scott Hairston.

Imagine music from an awards show orchestra playing, and we begin to wrap this up...

The Nationals are built to win now. Atlanta was built to win now, and will need to make more moves to replenish their lost pitching depth. The Mets are slowly getting better, hoping to compete by 2015 and be a serious threat in 2016. The Phillies are getting worse, with no hope while the current regime is in charge. One of these years, in Miami, the Marlins will reintroduce their fans to Major League Baseball.

Continuing our tradition, our preseason divisional All-Pro teams:

NL East 2014 Preseason All-Pro Team
C: Wilson Ramos, Nationals
1b: Freddie Freeman, Braves
2b: Chase Utley, Phillies
SS: Andrelton Simmons, Braves
3b: David Wright, Mets
LF: Bryce Harper, Nationals
CF: Denard Span, Nationals
RF: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
SP: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves

NL Central Predicted Standings
St. Louis Cardinals 94-68

Over the top at 6'6" is intimidating (Photo credit: Getty Images)

Pittsburgh Pirates 85-77
Cincinnati Reds 81-81
Milwaukee Brewers 78-84
Chicago Cubs 67-95

As a Cubs fan, I'm afraid the Cardinals are the best team in baseball. They've shown a track record for regenerative competitiveness than any other team in baseball the past two decades. Michael Wacha is particularly scary, unless you're a Cardinals fan.

In Pittsburgh, we have a blossoming youth movement conflicting with the plexiglass principle. The Pirates went from 79 wins in 2012 to 94 last year, when their run differential was good for 88 wins. Laws of regression suggest they will finish shy of the 90+ wins they had last year. We have them making the Wild Card Game with 85 wins, but will the improvement of their young club, plus the addition of prospects, including Gregory Polanco, buck the trend and propel the Pirates to the class of the National League?

Cincinnati has a lot going for itself. Joey Votto might be the best hitter in the National League. There's a lot of excitement for Billy Hamilton's speed, while so much of his success rests on his ability to get on base - not unlike every offensive player. It's more a case of Hamilton not showing much ability to get on base, aside from extremely small sample sizes last October and this Spring. Bryan Price looks like a sharp, new manager, but it could take him a while to get this team past their Dusty dysfunction.

Milwaukee is treading water with Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and a pretty decent starting rotation. Wily Peralta is a post-hype sleeper who's available in most fantasy leagues.

The Cubs have enough charm to get away with openly tanking at the Major League level. It's a wise move, considering that one of the few competitive advantages rebuilding teams can achieve is a larger draft budget (maximum spend on all draft picks), which is based on draft order, and that is based on the Major League team's Win-Loss record.

NL Central 2014 Preseason All-Pro Team
C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals
1b: Joey Votto, Reds
2b: Neil Walker, Pirates
SS: Jean Segura, Brewers
3b: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
LF: Matt Holliday, Cardinals
CF: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
RF: Ryan Braun, Brewers
SP: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
RP: Trevor Rosenthal, Cardinals

NL West Predicted Standings
Los Angeles Dodgers 97-65

Ryu looked good last night, too

San Francisco Giants 83-79
San Diego Padres 82-80
Arizona Diamondbacks 81-81
Colorado Rockies 79-83

The Dodgers are one of the best teams ever assembled, particularly in the pitching staff, health permitting with Kershaw, Greinke, and Ryu forming a 1-2-3 to compete against that of the Cardinals, Nationals, or anyone. The bullpen is a collection of former closers (Wilson, Perez, League, Howell), former starters (Maholm, Wright), and younger power arms from each side (Rodriguez and Withrow). The Clayton Kershaw injury is plenty scary. As much as the team wants to call it inflammation of an upper back muscle, the muscle that is hurt is in the back part of his shoulder. A couple of weeks could be enough, and he's hopefully a quick healer.

One of the teams to most greatly benefit from Atlanta losing wins with their pitching injuries, it's the San Francisco Giants. PECOTA loves the Giants, projecting 87 wins. I'm not one to go against PECOTA, but that seems a bit high.

If you saw the Opening Night game between the Dodgers and Padres, you saw how impressive Andrew Cashner was.

Awards show wrap it up music...

The Padres, Diamondbacks, and Rockies are three of the most variable teams in all of baseball. It feels like any of these teams could win 68 or 88 games.

NL West 2014 Preseason All-Pro Team
C: Buster Posey, Giants
1b: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
2b: Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
SS: Troy Tulowitzku, Rockies
3b: Pablo Sandoval, Giants
LF: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
CF: Angel Pagan, Giants
RF: Yasiel Puig, Dodgers
SP: Madison Bumgarner, Giants
RP: Kenley Jansen, Dodgers

NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
NL RoY: Billy Hamilton, Reds
NL Mgr: Mike Matheny, Cardinals

AL East Predicted Standings
Tampa Bay Rays 89-73
Boston Red Sox 87-75
Baltimore Orioles 81-81
New York Yankees 80-82
Toronto Blue Jays 79-83

Could all five AL East teams finish above .500?

AL East 2014 Preseason All-Pro Team
C: Brian McCann, Yankees

Tony Pena: "McCann is a monster"

1b: Chris Davis, Orioles
2b: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
SS: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
3b: Evan Longoria, Rays
LF: Brett Gardner, Yankees
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Yankees
RF: Wil Myers, Rays
DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox
SP: David Price, Rays
RP: Koji Uehara, Red Sox

AL Central Predicted Standings
Detroit Tigers 86-76
Kansas City Royals 85-77
Cleveland Indians 83-79
Chicago White Sox 72-90
Minnesota Twins 70-92

Prince looks a little too happy. (Ron T. Ennis / Star Telegram)

The Tigers keep feeding the roster with payroll and have improved their infield defense by trading Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler. They will be challenged more this year than in the past by Kansas City and Cleveland.

Perhaps, I'm just rooting for them, but I think this could be the Year of the Royals. Yordano Ventura alone deserves a national spotlight. His starts could be the biggest appointment watching baseball of the season. He may not be as effective as Jose Fernandez, but watching him pitch is electrifying. Their bullpen was the best in modern bullpen history last season. They will need someone (Wade Davis?) to step up and replace the injured Luke Hochevar this year. The Royals have a core of young hitters that will score a lot of runs if everyone clicks. If some players falter, like on most teams, they have decent depth with Danny Valencia and outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Justin Maxwell.

We wrote a lot about the Cleveland Indians here.

The White Sox have a couple of stars in Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, but there's not enough pitching. The Twins are really bad. Even if Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes combine to win 40 games, the Twins won't be in the postseason.

Al Central 2014 Preseason All-Pro Team
C: Salvador Perez, Royals
1b: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2b: Jason Kipnis, Indians
SS: Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3b: Carlos Santana, Indians
LF: Alex Gordon, Royals
CF: Austin Jackson, Tigers
RF: Torii Hunter, Tigers
SP: Chris Sale, White Sox
RP: Greg Holland, Royals

AL West Predicted Standings
Oakland Athletics 85-77

Look out for Sonny Gray Credit: Getty Images

Texas Rangers 84-78
Los Angeles Angels 83-79
Seattle Mariners 80-82
Houston Astros 65-97

The AL West is fascinating and only getting better. Oakland has succeeded with a philosophy of having the best 25-man team, with great depth and ability to platoon players for batting splits and defensive platoons - good defensive infielders for groundball pitchers, speedy outfielders for flyball pitchers. Sonny Gray is a guy we expect great things from this season. Rookie of the Year + October success?

The only team that has suffered more debilitating injuries this Spring that Atlanta are the Texas Rangers. PECOTA and ZiPS have adjusted their projections so much that they have the Angels in 2nd place. We won't go that far, but our Opening Day projection does have the Rangers missing the playoffs, in favor of Oakland in the division and Boston and Kansas City for the Wild Card.

How much better can this guy get? (Allen J. Schaben / LA Times)

Mike Trout is the best player of at least the past two generations. Seeing him in the postseason would be a lot of fun. Can the Angles build a competitive team around Trout with bad contracts all over the clubhouse?

In spite of signing Robinson Cano, it's likely the Mariners will get worse before they get better. Geoff Baker's surreal piece detailing dysfunction in the Mariners' front office rings so true that success out of Jack Z's team would be shocking.

Houston is going to be great as soon as 2016.

AL West 2014 Preseason All-Pro Team
C: Jason Castro, Astros
1b: Prince Fielder, Rangers
2b: Robinson Cano, Mariners
SS: Elvis Andrus, Rangers
3b: Adrian Beltre, Rangers
LF: Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers
CF: Mike Trout, Angels
RF: Josh Reddick, A's
SP: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves

AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, White Sox
AL RoY: Sonny Gray, A's
AL Mgr: Joe Maddon, Rays

2014 Postseason Predictions

The fact that the postseason is 6 months away makes these even less valuable than the virtually worthless predictions made right before the postseason begins.

Wild Card Games

Joe Maddon is the man. (Photo: Jason Nickle)

NL: Pirates over Braves
AL: Royals over Red Sox

Division Series
NL: Dodgers over Pirates
NL: Nationals over Cardinals
AL: Rays over A's
AL: Royals over Tigers

AL/NLCS
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers
ALCS: Rays over Royals

2014 World Series
Rays over Nationals

World Series MVP: David Price

We like to have fun with all kinds of stats over here. Usually, we look for something more valuable than a minuscule sample size of Spring Training stats that are almost meaningless because of varying competition levels and the uncertainty of some players goals in each plate appearance. Because the outcome of Spring games mean nothing, some pitchers could be looking to work on a specific pitch - particularly pitches that need work. Batters similarly can be working on a approach at the plate that might not lead to reaching base, but can prepare them for situations when they need to move a runner over, or maybe they take 2 strikes to work on hitting with 2 strikes. Greg Maddux used to famously set up hitters in Spring Training by throwing them pitches in a sequence they would never see in real games. We just don't know.

One of the most predictive pitching stats, of regular games is the strikeout-to-walk ratio. We get some surprising names in the list of Top 11 pitchers by spring K:BB ratio.


Yordano Ventura has been setting the baseball world on fire with his otherworldly stuff and panache. Having a couple of people ahead of his 15:1 K:BB ratio is a bit surprising. That another youngster, 22-year old Drew Hutchison, tied with reigning Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer, at 16:1 is a breath of fresh air.*

*Unless you hate the Blue Jays and/or Drew Hutchison

Beyond that, it's great to see Michael Pineda performing well in limited action this Spring...

Michael Pineda 9IP 1BB 14SO #Yankees #5thStarter
— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) March 18, 2014

How about classic Dice-K showing up? That's fun! He's given up 18 hits and 8 runs in 12 2/3rd innings in spite of a striking out twelve and only walking one.

The Cubs should be pleased that they have two of the top eleven K/BB pitchers. Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood are probably evolving into trade chips for the Cubs, limiting walks while missing bats this season will raise their stock.

Evan Reed, who is out of options, could be solidifying his spot in the Tigers' bullpen by striking out 11 batters for each walk.

For hitting, we will look at two stats. OPS, with min 30 plate appearances (LOL), and Home Runs.


I'm not surprised to see Mike Moustakas at the top of this list. He's had glowing reports from scouts and reporters all Spring.

The Yankees are reportedly shopping Francisco Cervelli. These stats are aligned with the fact that he's been a pretty good hitter in the big leagues during limited playing time the past few years. Since 2010, Cervelli has a .352 OBP, which is not bad for any hitter, let alone a backstop.

Brandon Moss had a great season last year and looks to continue his success as the left-handed part of another A's platoon.

The Mariners are more inclined to trade Nick Franklin than Brad Miller. I wonder if potential trade partners might try to make their best offer available, but only for Brad Miller.

Austin Jackson could do some serious damage if he sticks to the #5 spot of the Tigers order, after scoring 395 runs over his 4-year career, primarily as a leadoff or lower in the order batter. As a middle-of-the-order slugger, we can expect more of Jackson's counting numbers to become RBI's.

Chris Heisey is on this list primarily as a result of leading all batters with five homeruns this Spring. More on that in a minute.

I don't know Yangervis Solarte or Steven Souza. Do you? Solarte is new to the Yankees' system. His first six professional seasons were in the Twins organization, and he spent the last two years on the Rangers' triple-A team, the Round Rock Express. He's a non-roster invitee to the Yankees spring training, so we'll see if he can at least solidify a spot on their Triple-A squad. Steven Souza has never gotten past double-A, but he hit pretty well there last year. In 77 games playes (323 plate appearances), he slashed an impressive .300/.396/.557.

Looking ahead to our Spring homerun leader board, as of the morning of March 19th, 107 players have hit more than one homerun this Spring. 29 players have hit more than two homers. Here's the leaderboard of players who have hit at least four:


Woo hoo! Javy Baez and Mike Olt! Go Cubs!

Drew Hutchison is making his case for the Blue Jays rotation. (AP Photo by Gene J. Poscar)

Our series of interesting* team preview posts begins on the shores of the Cuyahoga River. In his first season at the helm of the Cleveland clubhouse, Terry Francona exceeded most expectations. The 2012 Indians went 68-94, but they turned things around all the way to 92 wins and an appearance in the AL Wild Card Game last year. This offseason, the front office was challenged with replacing 2/5th's of the starting rotation while improving their below average team defense and bullpen.

2013 Win-Loss Record: 92-70
2013 Pythagorian Record: 90-72

Key Losses: Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Chris Perez, Rich Hill, Joe Smith, Jason Kubel, Drew Stubbs, Matt Albers, Kelly Shoppach
Combined Projected 2014 fWAR: 5.9

Key Additions: John Axford, David Murphy, Shaun Marcum, Aaron Harang, Josh Outman, Justin Sellers, David Aardsma, Scott Atchison, Nyjer Morgan, Jeff Francoeur
Combined Projected 2014 fWAR: 2.7

*Who says we need to preview all thirty teams?

Pitching
Replacing Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir with lower-priced internal options and free agents limits the team's financial risk, but is a huge risk strategically.

As an entire staff, Cleveland pitchers provided 15 Wins Above Replacement last season (per Fangraphs), ranking 16th out of 30 Major League teams. Jimenez (3.2 fWAR) and Kazmir (2.5 fWAR) accounted for 38% of the team's 15 fWAR. We applaud Cleveland's tact of investing in areas that do not involve Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez. Looking at Cleveland's organizational depth chart, they may have enough resources to surpass 15 pitching WAR and contend with Detroit and Kansas City for the AL Central.

In 2014, Cleveland's starting rotation will be lead by Justin Masterson. He had the highest WAR on the team last season and is entering a contract year, FWIW. Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, and Zach McAllister should fill out the middle of the rotation. Salazar was outstanding in 10 starts last year, striking out over 30% of the batters he faced over 52 innings. The team has high hopes for Danny Salazar, expecting that a full season of him should replace what they got from at least Kazmir. If either Salazar, Kubler, or both complement Masterson as top of the rotation arms, Cleveland should have a good season. Zach McAllister needs to improve to be a consistently effective starter, but there's still reason for optimism. The fifth spot in the rotation has a bevy of competitors between Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, Shaun Marcum, Aaron Harang, post-hype bounceback candidate Trevor Bauer, Travis Banwart, and prospect T.J. House.

Their rotation was a strength last season, but the bullpen often let the team down. Given that they could convert some of the 5th starter contenders into effective relievers, that should help, as should getting more than 20 innings from southpaw Marc Rzepczynski. The other left-hander in their bullpen will be new addition Josh Outman, from the Drew Stubbs to Colorado trade.

Cody Allen has surpassed Vinnie Pestano as the primary setup man, but Pestano is a prime candidate for a bounceback season. How's this for a small sample size? Pestano has had 3 one-inning appearances this spring and performed perfectly, with three 1-2-3 innings. If Pestano and Allen lock down the 7th and 8th, the Indians will have the benefit of shortening the game to closer, John Axford. Another bounceback candidate, Axford could be one of the best pickups of the offseason. Lord knows Axford was a disaster during his struggles with Milwaukee, but his peripheral stats look really good for a bounce back to effectiveness. Axford still throws hard, in the 95-96 mph range. After struggling first the first six weeks of the season, Axford actually had a pretty terrific year. From May 15th through the end of the year, Axford had a 2.50 ERA and 2.4 K/BB ratio. He was very good after a late-season trade to St. Louis, and spending a couple of months getting coached by Dave Duncan can't be bad.

Get your season tickets now! (AP photo)

Defense
Last year's Indians were not a very good defensive team. Yan Gomes is a good defensive catcher, and the two Michael B's - Bourne and Brantley - do a pretty good job of covering 2/3rd's of the outfield. Unfortunately, for Cleveland fans, that's about it. Baseball Info Solutions placed the 2013 Indians as the 7th worst defense in Major League Baseball, tied with Houston, with -41 defensive runs saved. Fangraphs defensive ratingsranks them as the 4th worst defense, better than only the Astros, Phillies, and Mariners. The addition of David Murphy to platoon in right-field with Ryan Rayburn, allows Nick Swisher to play first base, where he is better. The place for Cleveland to make up the most ground defensively is by having Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis improve their defensive contributions. We're not as optimistic about Cleveland's defense, unless they succeed with platoon advantages, defensive substitutions, or reinforcements from the minor leagues.

Their top prospect is a 20-year old shortstop named Francisco Lindor. Baseball Prospectus scouts him as "Incredible instincts for the game; near elite potential with the glove; silky actions; excellent backhand pickup; range plays up; arm is plus; total package at shortstop". Lindor can definitely hit. He has a career .364 OBP over 1,051 Minor League plate appearances.

Offense

USATSI photo

Scoring 4.6 runs per game, Cleveland tied Baltimore for the 5th highest scoring offense in baseball last year. Their supposed moves this season, to convert Carlos Santana into a third-baseman only enhances the team's ability to get their nine best hitters in the lineup. This is a smart front office and manager who can platoon players based on their hitting splits, as well as defensive platoons - better outfield for their flyball pitchers / emphasis on infield defense for groundball pitchers. Cleveland might not be able to maintain a Top 5 offense in this coming year, but if their pitching can be Top 10, and their offense is Top 10, they could be dangerous. They need to shore up the defense to contend.

Cleveland fans could use the excitement.

BAseball Reality Tour Projection: 83-79

Comments? Questions? Let's hear 'em.

Thanks to our friends at reddit for the GIF.

As Vince Genarro wrote seven years ago, "A team’s location on the win-curve—their absolute level of wins—has a dramatic impact on the value of a win." Every year, we draw a line for replacement level at each position, usually described as the production of a player who could be signed as a free agent or called up from the minor leagues to replace an injured, traded, suspended, retired, or otherwise displaced player. My opinion is that we should have a league-wide replacement level for available free agents, but the depth of each individual organization should also affect what replacement level production is for each individual team.

For example, if a team has a starting pitcher get hurt in Spring Training, they can replace him with a free agent or internal option. Each team has replacement options, of varying talent levels, in the bullpen or minor leagues.

Some teams have great depth and can promote a player who may earn 2 or 3 WAR over a whole season. Other teams have poor depth and could potentially have a rotation of players who are earning negative-WAR. Again, the Free Agent pool has a league-wide "replacement level", but each team's internal options have varying replacement levels.

Let's take a hypothetical Free Agent Starting Pitcher who would be precisely at replacement level, earning 0.0 WAR this season, if signed. However, it seems that it should depend on which team signs him because each team should have a different actual replacement level value - based on their organizational depth.

Over thinking is one of our other favorite pastimes. Are we guilty of that here? Or, should there be a WAR factor that considers organizational depth to determine unique replacement levels for each organization? Thanks for stopping by - please let us know in the comments section below or a social network of yous choice.

A special "thank you" goes out to Sam Miller for mentioning, on Effectively Wild, that he sometimes goes to BrooksBaseball.net for a quick snapshot of a player. Sam is right. It's great. It succinctly tells you a lot about a pitcher's repertoire or a batter's approach at the plate.

A typical write-up for a batter will say something like this, from the Hitter-At-A-Glance for David DeJesus: "Against All Fastballs (1,194 seen), he had a league average eye (0.94 d'; 59% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 24% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a very patient approach at the plate (0.25 c) with a below average likelihood to swing and miss (10% whiff/swing)."

Source: Japanese Wikipedia

It can be surprising to learn that Mike Trout's Hitter-At-A-Glance on Brooks Baseball lacks descriptive ratings such as "exceptional" and "outstanding". Beyond that, it's bewildering to learn that his some of his grades are worse than league average. To the point, Mike Trout's batting eye is described as "league average" versus fastballs, "very poor" on breaking pitches, and "poor" against offspeed stuff.

How surprising and counterintuitive does it sound that Mike Trout doesn't have a good eye? He had a .432 On Base Percentage last year and lead the league with 110 walks. Those are basic stats that aren't telling us the whole story. For more advanced metrics, courtesy of Fangraphs, Mike Trout has positive run values against every pitch offering, aside from exceptionally rare knuckle ball and eephus pitch outliers. Wild.

Context is critical. It helps maintain perspective. Mike Trout is incredible, awesome. The best, he can do it all. He's fast. He has power. He reaches base. Mike Trout's #1 ZiPS Comp is Mickey Mantle, and somehow that seems to elevate the Mantle brand, in my opinion. Mike Trout is the best player of at least two generations, and according to Brooks Baseball, he's doing it with a batting eye that is league average at best. Amazing.

Photo: Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

Everyone's perspective is different. Hopefully, everyone takes something different away from The Mike Trout Experience. Trout is just so good. People who like baseball should be thrilled for the chance to see Mike Trout when the Angels visit their town. Throwing ear muffs on "perspective" for a cross-sport comp, Mike Trout is better than Kobe Bryant.

Okay, earmuffs off. Keeping historical context open for Mike Trout comparisons, he's on the precipice of blowing past everyone in history, if he has another 10 Win season. That is unrealistic. Even Ted Williams, who is the most aggressive comparison was 7 rWAR behind Trout after each of their Age 21 seasons. Trout debuted at Age 19, but it was just 40 games. It'll be better to imagine those games in Triple-A and just compare Ted Williams first two seasons (Age 20-21) with Mike Trout's two first full seasons (Age 20-21)...

Ted Williams (Age 20-21)
1,336 Plate Appearances, 161 OPS+, 13.0 rWAR, 13.8 fWAR

Mike Trout (Age 20-21)
1,355 Plate Appearances, 174 OPS+, 20.1 rWAR, 20.4 rWAR

Mike Trout is entering his third full season this year. After three full seasons, Ted Williams had 24 Wins Above Replacement. If Trout stays healthy, he should pass 24 WAR by June. Is Trout going to peak for a few years with 15 WAR seasons?

The following chart is the most rWAR by batters in the first 3 seasons of their careers...


How about that Evan Longoria?

Here's a list of highest rWAR for anyone thru their Age-21 season...


Ted Williams would be 11th, with 13.0 rWAR.

Source: Harry Warnecke/New York Daily News

Former Mariners' Prospect, Wladimir Belentien, has been in the news lately for all the wrong reasons. While reviewing historical free agents available this late in the offseason, I stumbled across his Baseball-Reference page. I was pretty shocked to see such a steep increase in the 3-year trend of Belentien's slash lines from Japanese baseball. A 44-point increase from 2011 to '12, and a 58-point increase from 2012 to '13 seems pretty rare. How about 72-point increase in On-Base Percentage Year 1 to Year 2 and another 69-points Year 2 to Year 3? I mean a 141-point increase in OBP from Year 1 to Year 3 seems like such an outlier. Yet, it may not even be as rare as his 3-year trend in Slugging Percentage. 103-points from 2011 to '12 is quite a gap, but from 2012 to '13, Balentien's SLG went up by 207 points, on his way to break the Japanese single-season home run record.

                                           
Year   Age     Tm  PA HR   BA  OBP  SLG IBB
2011    26 Yakult 555 31 .228 .314 .469   6
2012    27 Yakult 422 31 .272 .386 .572   4
2013    28 Yakult 547 60 .330 .455 .779   9

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/1/2014.

As an amateur in July 2000, Wladimir Balentein signed with Pat Gillick's Mariners.

How many players, in any league, have steadily improved their batting average by over 100 points in two years? Or, how many hitters have increased their OBP by more than 140 points in two years? In the 310-point difference in slugging percentage the most extreme?

Does anyone know if we can compare year-to-year differences on Baseball-Reference Play Index? I wasn't able to figure it out. Well, this is a bummer. I really have no idea how to look into this without falling into an Excel wormhole. Ugh, what a lousy payoff. As a punishment to myself, I won't promote this post with any click bait. Below is a remedial chart for the numbers highlighted above.

Wladimir Balentein Year-to-Year NPB Slash Lines


If anyone knows how to compare year-to-year trends of different players, that would be huge for our comments section. Thanks!