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In the past week, I had the pleasure of meeting Lorraine Bracco and Greg Kelly at separate occasions.  They were both very nice, even after I may have allegedly ganked Lorraine Bracco's seat at Diane von Furstenberg's holiday party.



We live in exciting times.

A couple of days ago, we asked a riddle and received some beloved and colorful responses.

What do Jose Bautista, John Buck, Tyler Colvin, Carlos Gonzalez, Kelly Johnson, Casey McGehee, Colby Rasmus, Mike Stanton, Drew Stubbs, Rickie Weeks, and Delmon Young have in common?

At the risk of being pitifully anticlimactic, the trivially correct answer is that they all hit 20, or more, Homeruns last season for the first time in their careers.

Through some research on Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs, we selected a group of candidates who could potentially create their own 20+ HR club during the 2011 season.

This can be beneficial to us during bar stool conversation as well as finding up-and-coming sluggers for rotisserie baseball.

First, a few notes on the 20+ HR class of 2010.

• The average Minor League PA/HR ratio for the eleven players, from Bautista to Young, is 33 plate appearances per Homerun. (Best: Mike Stanton 15.7 and Delmon Young 26.3 PA/HR, Worst: Drew Stubbs 66 and Rickie Weeks 44.6 PA/HR)
• Best Minor League OPS: Mike Stanton .939, Rickie Weeks .897
• Lowest Minor League OPS: Casey McGehee .741, and Drew Stubbs .765
• Mike Stanton and Tyler Colvin were the only players who debuted in 2010.
• Jose Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez joined the first-time 30+ HR club with Corey Hart and Joey Votto.  Bautista, of course, would have a table for one at any 2010 parties for the first-time 40+ or 50+ celebrations.
• Rickie Weeks just needed to stay healthy to reach 20 HR's.  He hit 29.
• Drew Stubbs entered the year with 8 career HR's from 2009.  He hit 22.
• Everyone on the list, besides Stanton, Colvin, and Stubbs had hit at least 13 HR's in a season before.

Now, onto our suggestions for players likely to look towards for 20+ HR power next season.  We have spent a few days simply trying to figure out how to present this group.  Would we do a straight up ranking based on who we feel is most likely to crack 20 HR's (Buster Posey), but we're sick of boring ranked lists.  We thought of dividing them up by position, but it's mostly first basemen anyway.  I was pretty sure we were going to place them in groups, but here were too many overlapping classifications, so I decided to list a team of guys, by position, and then rank/group the other guys later.  Hang on, let's see how this goes.

Statistics used to compile these rankings include:

Minor Leagues: PA/HR, K/BB ratio, and OPS
Major Leagues: PA/HR, K/BB, OPS+ and wRC+
Bill James 2011 Projections: PA/HR and OPS

Here's our take on who we think will hit 20+ Homeruns next season for the first time in their careers:

Buster Posey is most likely to succeed.

C: Buster Posey, Giants
1b: Ike Davis, Mets
2b: Neil Walker, Pirates
SS: Reid Brignac, Padres
3b: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
CI: Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
MI: Sean Rodriguez, Rays
OF: Alex Gordon, Royals
OF: Adam Jones, Orioles
OF: Carl Crawford, Red Sox
DH: Kila Ka'aihue, Royals

The middle infield is a bit iffy on this team.  We don't really expect Reid Brignac to hit 20 homeruns next seasons, but out of any shortstop who has yet to do so, he has the best chance.  Starlin Castro is certainly a few years away, if he ever gets there.  Barring injury, everyone on this team is at least guaranteed playing time, aside from maybe the Royals.  It's very difficult to predict what Ned Yost will do with the cards he's dealt.  (I don't think that's a compliment in this case although, at times, it can be.)

2011 could be the Year of LaPorta

The Other Guys...

Best Bets
Carlos Santana, Indians
Matt LaPorta, Indians
Justin Smoak, Mariners
Brett Wallace, Astros

Barring injury, the four fellows above are locks for playing time and have shown enough power in the minor leagues, at least, to be expected to produce 20+ HR's.  Santana is coming off a knee injury, which makes him the riskiest of this group.  We're still optimistic because he had such a fabulous debut last year, and reports are that he'll be ready for Opening Day.  LaPorta is also someone we are very high on, as his Minor League PA/HR was the highest of everyone we studied: 18.5.

Good Chance
Mitch Moreland, Rangers
Chris Iannetta, Rockies
Freddie Freeman, Braves

As long as the Rangers, Rockies, and Braves do not add any significant competition for these players, they should make it over 20 HR's.  Mitch Moreland has not been a homerun monster to this point, but his ballpark and quality lineup protection really helps.

Question Marks

The World Champions are waiting on B. Belt.

Chris Johnson, Astros
Brandon Belt, Giants
Gordon Beckham, White Sox
Brandon Allen, Diamondbacks

Brandon Belt is a very big question mark on the playing time issue, but his Minor League numbers are close to the best in the business.  Out of the 34 players considered, he ranked 8th in PA/HR (25.9), 7th in K/BB ratio (1.06), and 1st in OPS (1.075).

Brandon Allen would be higher on the list, if I hadn't heard rumors of a platoon with Juan Miranda.  That would not be very exciting for me, if I were a Diamondbacks fan.  Let Brandon Allen Play!

Toolsy Longshots
Travis Snider, Blue Jays
Dayan Viciedo, White Sox
Tyler Flowers, White Sox
Yonder Alonso, Reds

There should be no doubting the hitting ability and/or power of the players listed above.  They just are not guaranteed playing time on their current big league clubs.  A trade could open the door to playing time, especially for Viciedo, Flowers, and Alonso.  The A's seem content allowing Chris Carter to season a bit longer in the Sacramento River Cats' dutch oven while attempting to win now with guys like David DeJesus, Coco Crisp, and Josh Willingham.

The White Sox also may choose to play Brett Morel at 3rd base more often than Dayan Viciedo because of his better defense.  They signed Dunn and brought back Konerko, so the 1st base/DH options for Viciedo vanished.  Tyler Flowers is someone who was supposed to take A.J. Pierzynski's spot by now, but Pierzynski just reupped for another 2 years, where he'll be making 6 million dollars in 2012.  If anyone needs a young catcher with power, they should give Kenny Williams a call.

Baby Steps

Umm, I think that's LoMo.

Chris Coghlan, Marlins
Logan Morrison, Marlins

We are big fans of both of these guys in rotisserie baseball and real life, for their abilities to avoid outs and show some versatility.  Their penalized because of their ballpark, still relative inexperience, and low Major League power numbers.  Both players will likely make it into this club some day, but 2011 seems more like a year for baby steps into the teens in Homeruns.  Coghlan has hit 14 Major League HR's in 965 plate appearances (68.9 PA/HR), and Morrison hit just 2 in an otherwise wonderful 287 plate appearances last season.  As for Minor League numbers, Morrison showed much more power than Coghlan 36.3 PA/HR and 59.1 PA/HR, respectively.  Bill James projects that they will each hit 9 HR's next season.

Not Bloody Likely
Jose Tabata, Pirates
Charles Blackmon, Colorado
Starlin Castro, Cubs
Dustin Ackley, Mariners

We considered these guys because every year someone seems to come out of nowhere.  Tabata will have the opportunity, but very little power.  Blackmon will probably not play much in Denver this season.  Castro and Ackley were fruitless searches for potentially powerful middle infielders, at least for the next couple of years.

Alright, let's be quick.  This has nothing to do with our Baseball Managerial Trees post, which has hit a bit of a wall.  I guess it's more of a steep incline.  It's not wall, but it's a very big research project, and we're trying to figure it out for this sophisticated audience.

Back to our foreshadowing...  We have another post coming up soon, which may actually contain some practical information in the hopes of predicting future performance.

Here is the riddle: What do Jose Bautista, John Buck, Tyler Colvin, Carlos Gonzalez, Kelly Johnson, Casey McGehee, Colby Rasmus, Mike Stanton, Drew Stubbs, Rickie Weeks, and Delmon Young have in common?

If you know the answer, please feel free to write it in the comments section.  Also, please let us know if we left anyone out.

Let's add something else they have in common, such as they are each pictured below.

Before we get to our NFL picks, I just want to say that Kerry Wood passing on a 2yr/$10 million offer from the Yankees, at this stage in his career, to rejoin the Cubs on a 1yr/$1.5 million deal makes all the sense in the world.  He and many generations after him are already set for life.  Kerry is where he wants to be, and Cub fans are thrilled.  Merry Christman, Cubs fans.  This is probably as good as it's going to get for the next few years.

Um, okay, let's move on to Football.

How about that Vincent Jackson?

Carson, what are you smiling at?

Week 15 NFL Picks
49ers +10 @ San Diego (loss)
Browns -1.5 @ Cincinnati
Cowboys -6 vs Redskins
Texans +1.5 @ Tennessee
Jaguars +5 at Indianapolis
Rams -1 vs Chiefs
Bills +5.5 @ Miami
Buccaneers -5.5 vs Lions

McFadden is winning fantasy leagues this year

Cardinals +2.5 @ Carolina
Saints +1.5 @ Baltimore
Eagles +3 @ NY Giants
Falcons -6 at Seattle
Jets +6 @ Pittsburgh
Raiders -4.5 vs Broncos
Patriots -11 vs Packers
Bears -3 @ Minnesota

Locks this week are in green.

Season Record: 64-49-3 (.566 W%)
Locks: 11-10-3


Go Bears!

Welcome back, Patrick Ramsey!

The subtitle of this post could be "Who's left?! Who?? That's It?! Uh-Oh."  The baseball hot stove is winding down as most big time free agents have signed their new deals.  Adrian Beltre and Rafael Soriano are probably the nicest prizes still out there.  Really, that's about it.  When it comes to the Starting Pitching market, options are really shaky.  When Cliff Lee surprised most observers by signing with the Phillies in lieu of the Yankees or Rangers, he devastated the free agent market for starting pitchers.

Whenever I see Pavano pitch, he hears my booing.

There is not one Free Agent Starting Pitcher remaining that a large group of people would agree is rock solid.  It goes to show, when considering that the consensus top option left on the free agent wire is Carl Pavano.  I think he missed all of Dubya's second term with injuries.

Really, who is out there?  There's been a bit of a run on pitchers this past week.  Other potential starters Brandon McCarthy, Dustin Moseley, Rich Harden, Chien-Ming Wang, Mark Prior, and Andrew Miller signed new deals in the past four days.  Some teams strategies, for example the Yankees, look to be refocusing free agency efforts to build as powerful a bullpen as possible, and looking for starters elsewhere.  We'll talk about "elsewhere" in a moment.

Sorry if the following information is met by disdain from anyone who finds this redundant.  We have not received any complaints, but at the same time are sensitive to your, the reader's needs.  That being said, reassessing the free agent landscape is a big part of following the hot stove.  If you happen to be one of the people we just apologized to, I hope you enjoyed it because we won't apologize for this again.

As an example of our due diligence, below are two groups of Free Agent Starting Pitchers.  One group is comprised of those we believe are worthy of guaranteed Major League contracts and spots on the 40-man roster.  The second group are those f.a.s.p.'s we believe are at least worth considering for an invitation to spring training.  The lists are ranked in order of our current preference.

MLB Contract

Is Jeff Francis the best starter left?

Andy Pettitte (117)
Jeff Francis (100)
Carl Pavano (98)
Pedro Martinez (154)
Justin Duchscherer (139)
John Maine (98)
Micah Owings (88)

How do you not at least invite Zink to camp?

Spring Training Invite
Brian Bannister (87)
Charlie Zink (30)
Brian Moehler (93)

The numbers in (parenthesis) are their career ERA+, and that is not a typo next to Charlie Zink.  He's only pitched 4 1/3 innings in the big leagues, but he's a knuckleballer and at 31 years old may have ten good years hidden in his arm.

"Yeah, I think the strike zone is over that way." -- Daniel Cabrera

We continue to be suckers for Daniel Cabrera, and that really makes no sense.  He doesn't even throw hard anymore, as poor mechanics lead to injuries which he couldn't fully recover from.  In fact, his Fangraphs page shows his average fastball velocity has steadily decreased from 96.2 MPH in 2006 to 90.9 MPH last season.  Still, like I said, we're a bunch of suckers for his clothes your eyes and chuck it repertoire.  Daniel Cabrera and I go way back to that 2006 season, when my patience with him was the only blemish on an otherwise outstanding fantasy team.  In reality, however, would it be so bad if he went to Spring Training for your favorite team and maybe became the AA or AAA closer, while he learned to shorten his mechanics and throw strikes?  Will any MLB team make that gamble?  We don't know, but if not, we may get to see Daniel Cabrera pitch for the Newark Bears next season.

Okay, we said we'd talk about 'elsewhere'.  Elsewhere, or 'patience', is the Yankees Plan B after Cliff Lee left them.  If Pettitte decides to retire, they're really going to be sweating elsewhere.  The rumored to be available via trade are...

Felix Hernandez (133)

Felix is the best. The king.

Zack Greinke (116)
Jonathan Sanchez (101)
Matt Garza (107)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (110)
Scott Kazmir (106)
Edwin Jackson (96)
Tom Gorzelanny (93)
Derek Lowe (116)
Carlos Zambrano (127)
Paul Maholm (95)
Kenshin Kawakami (94)
Randy Wolf (102)
A.J. Burnett (107)
Barry Zito (114)

The first four guys are on that list are highly coveted.  The next three also have well defined value.  We discussed what is up with Gorzelanny this morning, and the rest of the guys on the list are basically salary dumps.

Twice in one day, Gorzelanny grabs the Reality Tour spotlight

Every year, we see pitching depth fade around the league due to injury and retirement.  Young pitching, good young pitching, will always be the most valuable commodity in baseball.

Looking back at the free agent list, the most rock-solid bet to stay healthy is Kevin Millwood, and he turns 36 next week and had a dreadful season for the last place Orioles last year.  Andy Pettitte is really just an option for the Yankees.  Maybe he'd go to Texas, but it sounds like we're hear in the next couple of days whether he's going to return to the Yankees or retire.  As for Pavano, I'm not a Yankee fan, but I personally dislike him.  I heard he's allegedly a bigot, and that doesn't fly around here.  We have Jeff Francis listed ahead of Pavano, but have not heard of anyone else sharing that opinion.

What would your rankings be like?  Don't forget, this is a community, people.  Please send me an email, or write it into our comments section.  Who'd you like your team to sign?  If you'd only like someone on the trade block, whom would you choose?  And, who do you realistically think your team would trade for him?  Thanks for reading, good night.

Why is Tom Gorzelanny seemingly getting pushed out of the Cubs clubhouse?  He's still relatively inexpensive, left-handed, and actually sort of good.  Does Mike Quade not like him?  How about new pitching coach Mark Riggins?  Gorzelanny came up in the Pirates system, so he doesn't have a long history with Quade or Riggins, who were the Cubs AAA Manager and Minor League Pitching Coordinator, respectively.

Dear Jim, please blame the media for this one.

Perhaps, the media is creating all this buzz, and Jim Hendry has no intention of trading him.  As a fan, that's what I'm hoping, but the murmurs have been ongoing for months.

With the impending signing of Kerry Wood, talk has already begun that Andrew Cashner will be moved into the rotation as Kerry takes his spot in the bullpen.  At this time, though, giving up on Tom Gorzelanny just doesn't add up.

Tom Gorzelanny made his first impact on Major League Baseball in 2006, when he started 11 games for a not good Pirates team.  The southpaw has had difficulty with control throughout his career (4.15 BB/9).  At times, especially in 2007, Gorzelanny could be effectively wild.  That year, he went 14-11 on another terrible Pirates team that lost 94 games.

The major X-factor in Gorzelanny's career has been his ability, or inability, to limit Homeruns.

Tom Gorzelanny (HR/9 ~ ERA)

Good times are ahead for Tom Gorzelanny

2006: 0.44 ~ 3.79
2007: 0.80 ~ 3.88
2008: 1.71 ~ 6.66
2009: 1.15 ~ 5.55
2010: 0.73 ~ 4.09

2008 was a disastrous year.  He spent considerable time back in AAA in '08 and '09 before the Cubs traded Josh Harrison, Jose Ascanio, and Kevin Hart for him and John Grabow.

Although Gorzelanny struggles with his command and does not strike out very many batters (Career 6.63 K/9), he is a valuable player.  Fangraphs values his career contributions at $23 million dollars, yet the most Gorzelanny has ever made was $800,000 last season.  This year, through arbitration, he'll likely get a 2011 salary in the $3 million range.  Not bad, when compared to league average (or worse!) veteran pitchers making eight figure salaries, think of Randy Wolf, Derek Lowe, Bronson Arroyo, etc.

Tom Gorzelanny will turn 29 around next year's All Star game.  For a left-handed starter, I'm pretty sure this is just around the time he's going to enter his prime.  Instead of trading Tom Gorzelanny, why aren't the Cubs buying out his arbitration years with a 3-year contract while teaching him to refine his mechanics to improve his control?  It seems so much more logical than hanging on to Carlos Silva or squeezing him out for Randy Wells or Andrew Cashner?  From this seat, the only rotation spots that should be relatively secure at the start of Spring Training should be those of Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, and Tom Gorzelanny.  Let Silva, Wells, Cashner, Jeff Samardzija, Thomas Diamond, Christopher Carpenter, and Chris Archer compete for the final two spots in the rotation.  Heck, trade for King Felix.  Do something disruptive!  This is basically coming out of nowhere, and I apologize for ranting at the Interweb.  It's just that I've been keeping it inside for too long, and we all know that's not healthy.

If you're going to rebuild, rebuild.  Blow it up.  Trade everyone.  Trade the veterans for anything worth more than the draft picks the team may get if they leave as free agents.  Trade Big Z, Dempster, Silva, Fukudome, Byrd, and Aramis.  Build up Carlos Peña's trade value and package him up.  Why are the Cubs treading water in 2011?

"I can't believe we're here, either!"

Why do we have to watch barely above average players come into camp as team leaders?  Why do they have to have a minor league manager and inexperienced pitching coach?  How could they let Rothschild just leave like that?  Are the Cubs in the business of winning, or not?  How can a new ownership group take over a franchise with a 102-year championship drought and justify a strategy that aims at respectability.  The Cubs need to be better that this.  Doesn't this new ownership group appreciate the fact that thousands of Cubs fans are dying every year without having seen their team even play in the World Series?  Doesn't that mean they should try to win at all costs?  I don't know about in your neighborhood, but in my neighborhood, a 102-year drought + New Billionaire Owners = Win At All Costs.  At least try to win, don't try to be a few games above .500.  Treading water in 2011 just leaves Cubs' decision makers keeping their seats warm for their replacements.

Friends and regular readers know we make it a habit to warn others of the dangers of gambling addiction.

Who said the NBA is Fixed?

It can happen to anyone, and the story has been told a thousand different ways.  It starts off with a harmless pool or dollar bet to make a boring game interesting.

In case you are a child or from another planet, let's explain: the rush, the adrenaline, the attention, and of course the cash that pours in when you win is traditionally quite pleasing and addictive.

I remember being about 23 years old, with my Dad, at Caesar's Palace.  We were playing a little Let it Ride because we heard it was a good game to play for a while with a good chance of breaking even/not lose a lot.   A decade later, I've come to understand that, hold 'em and pai gow poker are better for the break-even strategy.  Anyway, so we're playing Let it Ride, and I win a big hand and get a nice payout, including some high odds I got for some reason.  I'll never forget the dealer said to me: "That'll wind up costing you thousands of dollars down the road."  Of course, he meant that my win was so fantastic that I'd probably get hooked and play for years, eventually giving all my winnings and much more of my savings right back to casinos.  I've been lucky not to catch the gambling bug; some friends with bookies basically gamble on a different game every night.  Basketball, football, baseball, college, pro, it doesn't matter.

"So why do you post an NFL Weekly Picks post?" -- Serge

Well, Serge, that's a device I encourage for anyone who likes to gamble, but doesn't want to lose it all and effectively force his or her kids into the workforce prematurely.

Serge is always criticizing

I encourage anyone who's ever gambled more than they could reasonably afford to lose to start up a blog, or email a bunch of friends every week, with your NFL picks.  You could email all your friends your Golden Globe and Oscar picks.  Post on Facebook, or Tweet to the world, your predictions for anything you want to gamble.  Play ESPN's Streak For the Cash.  Do anything you can that is free that will still feed the monkey.  Impossible, you say?  Not if your reputation means anything.

Of course, it's not the same rush as putting five large on the Arizona Cardinals this weekend, but if you're human, you're not going to want to embarrass yourself in front of your friends over and over and over again.  Hey, everyone can't afford to go to sex therapy, like Tiger, when their lives fall apart.

As James Stockdale famously said in a 1992 U.S. VP debate, "Who am I?  Why am I here?"  Why are we here?  About an hour ago, our favorite sportswriter Joe Posnanski tweeted:

"I know this doesn't exactly correlate, but just got World Series odds. Royals 125-to-1. That seems IMPOSSIBLY low."

I agreed wholeheartedly.  The Royals would have to be better than 50,000-to-1 before I'd ever consider them to win the 2011 World Series.

Still, this seemed like a great time to feed our virtual gambling monkey by picking a few baseball future bets that we'd like to play if we were at Imperial Palace in Las Vegas.  The I.P. has the best selection of crazy team and player props, so if you can brave your way into the place, it's worth it for some sports gambling fun.

2011 World Series

Oakland may be in line for another "5 Aces" SI cover, and 35-to-1 ain't bad...

Phillies 3-to-1
Oakland A's 35-to-1
NY Yankees 6-to-1
Twins 18-to-1
SF Giants 12-to-1
Rockies 20-to-1
Tigers 28-to-1
White Sox 25-to-1
Reds 25-to-1
Angels 25-to-1

Okay, well that's a problem.  That's too many to bet on, at least for me.

Let's see if I can narrow it down to two or three.  Or, on second thought, let's look at a few League Championship odds that look good.

2011 American League

Nice odds if you want to bet on Joe Girardi and Dusty Baker meeting in the Fall Classic.

NY Yankees 5-to-2
Tigers 8-to-1
Twins 8-to-1
Angels 10-to-1
White Sox 13-to-1
Oakland A's 23-to-1

2011 National League
SF Giants 7-to-1
Reds 10-to-1
Rockies 15-to-1
Padres 50-to-1

So, what's it gonna be?  Right now, I'm imagining that my friends placed their bets and they're rushing me to bet so we can get out of there and go play some poker.  Okay, for the 2011 season, on this virtual trip to Vegas, I'm going to take the Rockies (15-to-1) to win the NL, the White Sox (13-to-1) and Oakland A's (23-to-1) to win the AL, and the Phillies (3-to-1), Yankees (6-to-1) and Tigers (28-to-1) to win the World Series.

I wasn't able to narrow it down to less than six bets.  What a sucker!  See what I meant about how this gambling stuff can get addictive?  If you have a monkey on your back, get help, post your picks in the columns below, or both.  Happy Holidays!

It's been a bit too quiet around these part the past few days, but we've struggled to find a compelling narrative.  Without an interesting thesis, or unique insight, this post will consist of interesting nuggets we've read the last few days, random thoughts on current events, and hopefully not too many pointless tangents.

In today's Joe Blogs post, Joe Posnanski is right (as usual).  Brendan Ryan was "expendable" way before the Cardinals traded for new starting Shortstop, replacement-level/below average* Shortstop: Ryan Theriot (2010 avWAR: -0.4).

*Ryan Theriot Cherry Picked Career Stats
WPA: -5.1

It sounds like Cliff Lee is "deciding" between the Rangers, Phillies, and Yankees.  I'm not going on any sort of limb here, but to hush the noise out there, I maintain that Lee will take the highest offer and that will be from the Yankees.  The Yankees didn't win the World Series last year, and much of that was due to inferior starting pitching, especially when compared to Cliff Lee's Rangers.  The free agent market for starting pitchers has dried up, besides Cliff Lee.  Sure, they could bring back Andy Pettitte (probably), but that's not an upgrade.  He was there last year.  Currently, the Yankees rotation looks like C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, TBD 1, and TBD 2.  Those TBD's could be Lee and Pettitte, or Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre.  Dustin Moseley could win a spot in Spring Training.  The consensus pick for best remaining non-Cliff Lee free agent starting pitcher is a player with NO CHANCE of landing in the Bronx: Carl Pavano.  Jeff Francis looks to rejoin the Rockies or perhaps sign with the Mets.  Rich Harden, Brandon Webb, and Pedro Martinez are high-risk/questionable-reward guys the Yankees could fall back on.

Wouldn't it be something if the Rangers resigned Cliff Lee, and then Andy Pettitte also decided to take his pre-retirement party back to his home state to play for the Rangers?

No-one really knows, at this point, who will be the 5th starter for the Houston Astros.  As in every year, most teams that will have Spring Training competitions for back-end rotation spots.  But, this blog is a place for the readers.  One of our most beloved readers, is Astros' fan, Osh.  For him, we'll take a look at who could start the 5th most games for the 2011 Astros.

Last night, or two nights ago, we were looking into three recent acquisitions of the Astros, Lance Broadway, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Aneury Rodriguez.  We didn't find anything compelling enough to post.  The front four of the Astros rotation is set with Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, and Bud Norris.

In terms of numbers for the three new Astros, I looked at their minor league stats.  Here are the numbers we looked at, there's not much there.

Lance Pendleton, Age: 27, IP: 472.3
WHIP: 1.291, H/9: 8.4, HR/9: 0.5, SO/9: 3.2, SO/9: 8, SO/BB: 2.51

Ryan Rowland-Smith, Age: 27, IP: 611.3
WHIP: 1.346, H/9: 8.9, HR/9: 0.6, BB/9: 3.2, SO/9: 8.7, SO/BB: 2.71

Aneury Rodriguez, Age: 23, IP: 712
WHIP: 1.368, H/9: 9.1, HR/9: 0.8, BB/9: 3.2, SO/9: 7.9, SO/BB: 2.46

The one thing I took from these numbers is that Lance Pendleton looks like he could have the better 2011 season.  We couldn't find the inspiration for an entire post, but at least it made it in here.  If you have a chance, check out how R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs and Twitter renown takes a closer look at the recent additions to the Astros rotation options.  He doesn't look into Lance Pendleton, but did throw in the name of one of the Astros top pitching prospects: Jordan Lyles.

The Astros have options, and Jordan Lyles will get a shot.

So apparently, the Royals are getting more aggressive in attempts to trade Zack Greinke.  The Royals are afraid that if Greinke struggles at any point next season, he'll be less valuable than he is right now.  His 2010 season was not nearly as brilliant as his Cy Young season in '09, but GM's right now are willing to give him a KC-induced mulligan.  I'm more in that camp, than the alternative.  I think that Greinke is a low-risk acquisition, that will cost prospects, but not a lot of money, unless he's really good and you want to keep him around.

Word is the Yankees are not interested in trading for Greinke.  For what it's worth, Jon Heyman tweeted that the Yankees were "very reluctant" 23 minutes ago:

"if #yankees lose for lee, they will earmark many $ for bullpen and record flexibility. they are very reluctant to go for greinke"

A couple of minutes later, Jack Curry, of the Yankees' YES Network, tweeted that the team feels he's not right for NY.

"The Yanks have had internal discussions about Greinke, but don't think he matches up well with NY. If they don't get Lee, he won't be Plan B"

Getting Greinke is a Rare Opportunity

Of course, Curry (or presumably the Yankee brain trust) is hinting at the fact that Zack's history with social anxiety issues make him a risky acquisition in the world's most heated baseball environment.  I suppose that is sound thinking by Cashman and Co.  It's good to be risk-avers, I guess, but Yankee fans better hope the team is doing their due diligence.

If Zack Greinke is over his social anxiety issues, and there's a good bet that he probably is, his ability to retire batters translates very well to the Yankee history of winning.

It would feel like a fantasy if the Cubs traded for Greinke.

Alright, that's enough chatter for now.  As a piano man at Pat O'Brien's, we take requests.

Feel free to leave them in the comments section below, or as the VIP's do it, just send me an email.

No time for a real post today.  Seeing "A Christmas Carol" at the Paper Mill Playhouse before kickoff.

Browns +1 @ Buffalo
Lions +6.5 vs Packers
Steelers -8.5 vs Bengals
Raiders +3.5 @ Jacksonville
Falcons -7.5 @ Carolina
Buccaneers -1 @ Washington
Rams +9 @ New Orleans
Seahawks +5 @ San Francisco
Patriots -3 @ Chicago
Dolphins +5 @ NY Jets
Broncos -4 @ Arizona
Chiefs +9.5 @ San Diego
Eagles -3.5 @ Dallas
Giants -3 @ Minnesota
Ravens -3 @ Houston

Locks, this week, are Browns, Patriots, and Giants.

Season Record: 64-49-3(.566 W%)
Locks: 11-10-3

Big Non-conference game today for the Bears.