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State of the Disabled List

Jason Martinez, of the remarkably comprehensive website MLBdepthcharts.com, tweeted a keen observation on Sunday:


For brevity's sake, let's cut the small talk and take a closer look at how the DL is affecting each team. With the help of Jason's website and Cot's Contracts, we present our findings of teams most affected to least affected, by dollars.


Boston Red Sox
Players: 12
Dollars: Over $80 million
Jason Repko's salary isn't posted anywhere, but he made $600,000 last season, and we're putting him down for the same amount this year. Still, the Red Sox have over $38 million on DL arms, and over $42 million on bats. When Kevin Youkilis returns, presumably, in a few days, we can knock $12,250,000 off this number.

Philadelphia Phillies
Players: 9
Dollars: $40,127,500
The right side of their infield, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, are the primary culprits here - making over $35 million combined. The largest question hanging over the Phillies, like a dark cloud, is how good these players will be after returning. At their advanced age and mileage, they could very well end up being liabilities after they return.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Players: 8
Dollars: $32,727,500
Matt Kemp's $10,250,000 salary makes up almost a third of the Dodgers' DL expenses, but the team also has a few relatively high-priced veterans on the list, like Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis, Juan Uribe, Matt Guerrier, and Jerry Hairston, Jr., which is what gets them into the top 3 of this dubious ranking. How does Juan Uribe make $8 million, with another $7 million guaranteed for next season, plus $1 million to be payed in 2014? His agent, Martin Arburua, really earned his commission on that one.

San Diego Padres
State of the Disabled List
Carlos Quentin will be back soon
Players: 13
Dollars: Over $29 million
The Padres will fall about five places in the standings very shortly, when Carlos Quentin and his $7 million salary are activated from the Disabled List this week (maybe today). In addition, without confirmation, we are allocating the Major League minimum ($480,000) to James Darnell and Joe Wieland. As with any of the players we are noting for estimated salaries, if anyone knows the actual numbers, a note in the comment section would be appreciated.

Baltimore Orioles
Players: 8
Dollars: $28,469,333
The surprising success of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles is even more impressive when noticing how much money they have on the DL. Brian Roberts and Mark Reynolds make up more than half of this expense, but the name that shouts out as an epic failure by their front office is Tsuyoshi Wada. There were whispers out of Japan that he might be hurt, yet the Orioles signed him to a contract that pays him more than $8 million over the next two years.

New York Yankees
Players: 10
Dollars: $27,295,475
It's no surprise that the Bronx Bombers would be near the top of this list. It would usually take just one starting infielder making the DL to significantly climb up these rankings. That being said, Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, and A-Rod are on the active roster. Mariano Rivera's $15 million salary will ensure they are in the top half of this list the rest of the season.

New York Mets
Players: 6
Dollars: $26,040,129
Back to back New York teams, as Mel Allen would say, how about that! Apologies with my digression, but Jason Bay and Mike Pelfrey account for over 91% of this total. Bay should be off the DL in a couple of weeks. Big Pelf, on the other hand, will be on the list the rest of the season.

Washington Nationals
State of the Disabled List
Jayson Werth's beard is sad
Players: 10
Dollars: Over $25 million
Again, we have a couple of estimates and allocated the minimum to Sandy Leon and Cole Kimball.

The Nationals' highest paid player, Jayson Werth, makes over $13.5 million, and Chien-Ming Wang and Michael Morse combine for another $7.5 million.

Oakland Athletics
Players: 8
Dollars: $25,011,566
It's really bad luck to see a low budget club like the A's so far up on this list. The dollars primarily come from three-fifths of their projectable starting rotation (Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, and Dallas Braden), plus two-thirds of their starting outfield (Coco Crisp and Yoenis Cespedes). With their payroll at $52,973,000, the A's have over 47% of that payroll on the DL.

St. Louis Cardinals
Players: 6
Dollars: $24,849,000
The defending World Champions were in much better shape a couple of days ago, before Lance Berkman and his $12 million salary were disabled. Chris Carpenter has also been $8.5 million of dead weight all season. Yet, the Cardinals keep chugging alond. According to Coolstandings, they have a 77% chance of making the playoffs again this season.

San Francisco Giants
Players: 6
Dollars: $19,913,000
The 2010 World Champions are an older team. Brian Wilson will have his $8.5 million commitment on the DL the rest of the season, while other veterans: Freddy Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, and Ryan Theriot currently make up the bulk of the remaining debt.

Cincinnati Reds
Players: 4
Dollars: $17,984,167
With only four players, the Reds find themselves in the top 12 because their lowest priced disabled player is Bill Bray at over $1.4 million. Scott Rolen makes over $8 million, and one of the worst investments of the offseason, Ryan Madson, is making $6 million to rehab before another run at free agency next winter.

Kansas City Royals
Players: 9
Dollars: $16,789,025
The Royals have had a terrible run of luck with injuries this year, but when considering the big picture, it can still be okay. No-one wants to see budding young stars, like Salvador Perez and Danny Duffy, miss most of the season, but when it comes to their window to compete in the postseason, it's better to be unlucky in 2012-13 than 2013-14.

Detroit Tigers
State of the Disabled List
The Tigers need to stay
close until V-Mart is back
Players: 4
Dollars: $14,465,000
The Tigers haven't been unlucky with injuries since the offseason. Victor Martinez, and his $13 million make up most of this chunk, and he should return by September. Where the Tigers have been unlucky is in the Win-Loss record. They'll need to improve in all aspects of the game, to make the kind of postseason noise we expected from them back in March.

Tampa Bay Rays
Players: 9
Dollars: Over $13.4 million
We don't know what Brandon Guyer is making this season, but the Major League minimum gets us to $13,451,000. Evan Longoria, Kyle Farnsworth, and Jeff Niemann are the only disabled players making more than half a million bucks this year. Plus, Desmond Jennings might be the most valuable, lowly paid, disabled players in baseball. The Rays have excellent starting pitching, depth, and defensive flexibility. Teams built that way can maintain success through injury troubles. So, don't be surprised to see them playing again this post season.

Chicago Cubs
Players: 5
Dollars: $12,745,500
The Cubs injury problems amount to almost $5 million to catchers and $8 million in the bullpen. It doesn't really matter, though, as their highest paid injured "stars", Geovany Soto and Carlos Marmol, were atrocious when healthy.

Colorado Rockies
Players: 4
Dollars: $11,942,000
One of the most disappointing teams, at least for their own fans, this season must be the Rockies. In hindsight, however, it seems clear that they never really had the starting pitching to contend. Who knows? The NL West has been a wild ride the last few years, and the Rockies have always had an unexpected run where they win 20-something games in a month. The likelihood of that happening this year, however, is tenuous at best. Remarkably, they've been relatively healthy this year. $10.5 million of the almost $12 million on the DL belongs to Jorge De La Rosa.

Minnesota Twins
State of the Disabled List
Ron Gardenhire suiting up isn't
going to help the lowly Twins
Players: 3
Dollars: $11,730,000
Kyle Waldrop makes the Major League minimum. Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn make up the rest of the $11+ million on the Twins' DL. Unfortunately, the Twins don't have much talent on their active roster and are clearly the worst team in the American League.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Players: 4
Dollars: $11,354,000
While the Dodgers have gotten off to a torrid start, sporting the best record in baseball, the Diamondbacks still have time to right the ship and compete for a playoffs, potentially one of two Wild Card births. Chris B. Young was on the DL for a few weeks, until this past weekend. The four players they currently have on the DL are missed, though, as they rely on contributions from Takashi Saito, Geoff Blum, and mostly Stephen Drew and Daniel Hudson. When Drew and Hudson return, we could expect the D'backs to make a Rockies-esque run, propelling themselves into contention.

Seattle Mariners
State of the Disabled List
Will King Felix ever taste
champagne with Seattle?
Players: 3
Dollars: $10,662,500
Franklin Gutierrez, Miguel Olivo, and George Sherrill are the three guys the Mariners are missing. How much of a difference will they make when they return? Not much. This still isn't their year.

Cleveland Indians
Players: 4
Dollars: $7,988,000
Similar to the situation in Seattle, how much can fans really expect to get from Grady Sizemore, Carlos Carrasco, Rafael Perez, or Josh Tomlin in 2012? Again, it's not much. They may be good players again in their careers, but it may take more time for them to fully bounce back to reach their top potential. All in all, though, the Indians are having a surprisingly good year. Let's not count them out. They're in first-place, after all. Mostly, they've been lucky, as their injuries haven't happened to key contributors.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Players: 4
Dollars: $7,594,833
The Angels' problems haven't been injuries this season. Sure, we can blame Albert Pujols for everything, but truly, he's just one of no fewer than six starters who are sporting sub .300 On Base Percentages. Nobody's going to be over .500 with a lineup like that.

Milwaukee Brewers
Players: 3
Dollars: $4,981,000
The Brewers have been luck and unlucky with injuries. While this is a small number of players and total cost on their DL right now, all three players (Mat Gamel, Alex Gonzalez, and Chris Narveson) are out for the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Players: 4
Dollars: Over $4.5 million
How much does Daniel McCutchen make? He's hurt, and we put him down for $480,000. How much is Jeff Karstens worth? He's hurt and making $3.1 million. The Pirates have been healthy this year, but they're just not good.

Toronto Blue Jays
State of the Disabled List
Brett Lawrie can hit, but
he needs to grow up
Players: 4
Dollars: $3,055,000
The Blue Jays are having a good season, so far. It could be them and the Rays coming out of the AL East this year, which would be a great story everywhere except New York and Boston. To increase their chances of making the playoffs, they'll need to stay relatively healthy, hope that Brett Lawrie doesn't get arrested, and get an effective Sergio Santos back after his shoulder's inflammation subsides.

Miami Marlins
Players: 2
Dollars: $2,680,000
The Marlins should continue their solid run of baseball in the coming weeks, as the only players they're missing are Emilio Bonifacio and Jose Ceda. Juan Carlos Oviedo is still in new-name purgatory, but his arm should be about as fresh as his passport once he gets cleared to play again. The NL East should be a thrilling race, as the Braves have been the class of the division, but the Nationals and Marlins will make some noise in September... and that's without considering the Phillies.

Houston Astros
Players: 2
Dollars: $972,000
Astros fans must feel like they're already playing with house money. While it's still early, coolstandings gives them a 20% chance to make the postseason. Remember, most predictions had them losing over 100 games this season. The talented front office Jeff Luhnow has put together deserves all the praise they can get.

Atlanta Braves
State of the Disabled List
Chipper Jones is primed
for one more fine summer
Players: 2
Dollars: $960,000
If you do the math, it makes sense, they have two players making the Major League minimum on the DL. One of the keys to the Braves in the start of this season has been the health of Chipper Jones. Overall, the team is 26-16,and they are 19-5 with Chipper in the lineup. They're a good team, with depth in all facets of the game.

Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers
Players: 0
Dollars: $0
The two healthiest teams, right now, are on the south side of Chicago and in Arlington. While their health is comparable, their talent is not. The White Sox are at .500 and have less than a 50% chance of making the playoffs. On the other hand, the Rangers are 26-16, with the best run differential in baseball, and a 96% chance to return to the postseason for the third year in a row.

As always, your comments and tweets are appreciated. Please start/join the conversation.

Thoughts from the Air

Thoughts from the Air
A view from the cockpit.
It's Saturday morning, and I'm flying from New York to Chicago, with aspirations to see the Dodgers at Wrigley this afternoon.

Thinking back on recent days around baseball, developments have been a mix of good and bad.


Wednesday night was delightful, as Jered Weaver threw a no-hitter at home and in front of his family. Cameras caught him sharing emotional embrace with his father that gets to the core of why millions of people get into baseball in the first place. "The Natural" and "Field of Dreams" both got that part right. The connection of playing catch with someone who raises you is a huge part of growing up. Some people might look back to other activities with more fondness, but I'd argue that nothing is quite the same.

That first bike ride, when your parent runs with you, holding the seat, until they let go sure is something, but that's more about letting go for the parent and being on your old for the child. It separates the two. Playing catch builds a bond because you do together.

Thoughts from the Air
Some kids probably remember throwing the pigskin around more than baseball, but isn't there something grand about your first glove? Unless it's handed down, you get to break it in. It's usually one of your first toys you don't have to share. Just like every Major Leaguer has one, this is yours! It takes the form that your hand gives it. Leather has a smell, and gosh darn if it doesn't go well with the smell of freshly cut grass. And that sound, the unmistakable 'pop' of ball to glove. Football doesn't have any of that.

Playing 1-on-1 basketball at the park or in the driveway creates a tight bond between two people, but kids really need to be older for that. When you're playing hoops, or H-O-R-S-E, you've already played catch.

That's what made the smiles on the faces of Jered and the rest of the Weavers so gratifying. Good for them, Wednesday night was an example of what it's all about.

Shifting to sadder, but still inspiring news, Lillian "Lil" Musial, the wife of Stan "The Man" Musial passed away on Thursday. In one of mankind's most remarkable love stories, the Musials were married for over seventy years.

Thoughts from the Air
Musial might be baseball's most underrated Hall of Famer. He's too rarely mentioned in greatest of all time discussions like Ruth, Mays, DiMaggio, Mantle, etc, but he is just as worthy. Still, that aside, Stan Musial is "The Man" for his incomparable marriage.

Thoughts from the Air
Speaking of another legendary ballplayer and person, who had a rough Thursday, Mariano Rivera crumpled to the ground of Kaufman Stadium after rupturing his ACL and Meniscus while shagging bp flyballs. The 2012 season was to be Mariano's farewell tour, one more year in the sun for the Hammer of God. Instead, he's facing at least one surgery and many months of arduous rehabilitation to return to the big leagues at some point next season.

As he sits on the edge of his remarkable career, Mariano shall overcome his embattled illusions. This deeply religious man believes he will follow God's plan. He always has. If he's not to play anymore, it won't be the last that Mariano gives to the world. He will likely take it as a blessing, to devote his full attention to his philanthropy. Doing good all over the world for those less fortunate. Still, I wouldn't bet against him coming back. He'll be flinging his cutter at Major Leaguers next Summer. He'll be breaking bats and saving games for the Bronx bombers. His been doing it for almost 20 years, and as he said on Friday: "I'll be back. Mark it down in big letters. I'm not going out like this." Who are we to doubt him?

My flight is beginning our descend into Chicago. So, I'll have to wrap this up. Until next time, let's not forget what's important in life. It's the little things.

N.Y. Mets Clowning Out West

Fans of the New York Metropolitans haven't had much to celebrate in recent seasons. Their last winning record was 89-73 in 2008, after Jerry Manuel took over for Willie Randolph midseason. Compared to the doom and gloom many predicted for the Mets, the start of this young season has been a pleasant surprise for fans from Flushing.

The Mets are three games over .500, trailing the Braves by 1, the Nationals by 2, and currently setting the pace for the 2nd NL Wild Card. They've won 5 of their last 6, after sweeping the Marlins at home and taking 2 of 3 in Colorado.

As they prepared to leave Colorado for a series in Houston, R.A. Dickey and his teammates got into the spirit of the Old West, and shared photos on Twitter.

In what looks to be the visitors clubhouse of Coors Field, R.A. is clowning around with catcher Mike Nickeas.

N.Y. Mets Clowning Out West
Dickey: "My first capture. The outlaw mike Nickeas."

Even better is the smile on Johan Santana's face in this photo:

N.Y. Mets Clowning Out West
Dickey: "The outlaw johanicus wales"

Enjoy this time, Mets fans! Before you know it, you could be hoping for nothing more than a aspiring prospects in return for trading bullpen arms to contenders.

Update: for more photos of Mets dressed as Cowboys, including Ike Davis, Josh Thole, and Lucas Duda, check out this post by Eric Simon of Amazin' Avenue.

Pujols Knows Futility

It's been well documented that Albert Pujols is struggling to adapt to the American League. Most of us know he has yet to hit a homerun. After a base on balls in the 8th inning of tonight's game, he's currently in an 0-19 slump - the worst hitless streak of his career. His current batting average (.222) is lower than the millions of dollars on his contract ($240,000,000).

Small sample size and all that, but Fangraphs shows Albert Pujols has also been the worst base runner in the game this year:

Pujols Knows Futility
Being a worse base runner
than El Caballo ain't easy.
Albert Pujols -2.5 BsR
Carlos Lee -1.9 BsR
David Ortiz -1.8 BsR
Jason Kubel -1.6 BsR
Nick Hundley -1.4 BsR
Nick Swisher -1.4 BsR
Jaime Garcia -1.1 BsR
Ramon Hernandez -1.1 BsR
Buster Posey -1.0 BsR
Justin Smoak -1.0 BsR

Albert Pujols is too talented to struggle this mightily for long. He'll probably hit 10 homeruns in May, and still hit over 30 on the year. After adjusting to the league, he will most certainly have a better 2013 season. As a Cubs fan, subjected to rooting for the proverbial doormats of the National League, the only thing that would make Pujols's struggles more gratifying is if he were still on the Cardinals.

Pujols Knows Futility
Now batting: Albert Pujololololols

MLB Facts and Opinions

Statistical observations of this young season should all be accompanied with a small sample size warning, and this exercise is no different. Today, we're checking the pulse of Major League Baseball, in power rankings form. For brevity's sake, we will include one fact and one opinion for each club.


30.) Houston Astros
MLB Facts and Opinions
Smile, Wandy!
Fact: Wandy Rodriguez is helping his trade stock, with a sub-2.00 ERA.
Opinion: After a surprising 4-4 start, the Astros have stumbled to a 5-10 record.

29.) Oakland A's
Fact: Team batting line: .206/.277/.326
Opinion: The A's will lead the league in vuvuzela attendance.

28.) Pittsburgh Pirates
Fact: Their team OPS+ is 52
Opinion: There are pieces here. The outfield looks good, Neil Walker can play, and once Gerrit Cole gets called up, they'll have an overpowering ace.

27.) Minnesota Twins
Fact: Josh Willingham is tied with Kirby Puckett for the longest hitting streak by a Twins player to start a season, with 15 games.
Opinion: The Twins need pitching, but aside from Glen Perkins, in the bullpen, they don't have any. It's sad that Francisco Liriano has been so dreadful (11.91 ERA after 3 starts).

26.) Seattle Mariners
Fact: The only American League team without receiving an intentional walk is the Mariners.
Opinion: If I could give one active player a fountain of youth, it would be Ichiro.

25.) New York Mets
Fact: Johan Santana has the worst BB/9 in the Mets rotation
Opinion: With a team above .500, Sandy Alderson continues to prove that he knows more about baseball than us.

24.) Chicago Cubs
Fact: Steve Clevenger is hitting .588
Opinion: Feeling better after trading Marlon Byrd

23.) Baltimore Orioles
Fact: 9 of the 10 regulars in Baltimore's lineup has at least 1 homerun this year. The lone exception is power hitting 3rd baseman Mark Reynolds.
Opinion: Their lineup is solid, top to bottom, but pitching wins, and they don't have enough to stay in first place much longer.

22.) San Diego Padres
Fact: Joe Thatcher has inherited 10 baserunners, only 1 has scored.
Opinion: I actually think the Padres have a chance in the wild west, yet they are just ahead of the utterly hopeless Cubs and Orioles. It's good to see there are over 20 good teams this year.

21.) Chicago White Sox
Fact: When scoring 4 or more runs, the White Sox are 8-1.
Opinion: Don't be surprised to see the White Sox raise the white flag relatively early this season.

20.) Cleveland Indians
Fact: The Indians are just 1-4 at home and 7-1 on the road.
Opinion: Johnny Damon? Please.

19.) Colorado Rockies
MLB Facts and Opinions
Jamie Moyer = best story of  2012 
Fact: Jamie Moyer, at 49 years of age, leads the rotation with a 2.55 ERA.
Opinion: The Rockies are known for incredible 2nd half runs. They, like every team, still has a chance in the wild NL West.

18.) San Francisco Giants
Fact: Buster Posey has returned from a gruesome injury to post a 170 OPS+
Opinion: Again, it's the wild west, the Giants have a chance

17.) Kansas City Royals
Fact: The Royals are 0-8 at home.
Opinion: "The process" will pay dividends. Stay thirsty, Royals fans. Stay thirsty. You will be rewarded.

16.) Boston Red Sox
Fact: With the worst pitching in baseball, the Red Sox have allowed 6.79 runs per game. No other team has allowed more than 5.43.
Opinion: Stranger things have happened, and the Red Sox could win the AL East. We just wouldn't count on it, as we currently have three division rivals ranked ahead of them.

15.) Toronto Blue Jays
Fact: Blue Jays pitchers have the highest GB% in baseball (52.3%). No other team is above 50%.
Opinion: In Peter King style of it could happen, maybe, how would FOX feel with the Blue Jays and Rays in the same postseason?

14.) Milwaukee Brewers
Fact: Starting Rotation ERA's: Shaun Marcum 3.79, Yovani Gallardo 4.58, Zack Greinke 5.09, Randy Wolf 8.80, Chris Narverson 7.00
Opinion: Their lineup needs a little more left-handedness. The heart of their lineup is currently Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and Corey Hart. Can Mat Gamel get into the mix?

13.) Miami Marlins
Fact: While the names look good on paper, the Marlins offense has been below league avereage. One bright spot for superficial fans is Emilio Bonifacio leading the Majors with 9 stolen bases.
Opinion: They have some likable players, but with a detestable owner and empty seats in a brand new ballpark, the likability sometimes fades.

12.) Philadelphia Phillies
Fact: Phillies have scored 2 runs or fewer in 9 of 15 games.
Opinion: Starting Pitching will keep them in the hunt. The return of Chase Utley and overpaid platoon man Ryan Howard will determine their finish and postseason run.

11.) St. Louis Cardinals
Fact: Lance Berkman has a triple, a stolen base, and a .500 OBP
Opinion: If Chris Carpenter comes back healthy, a doubtful if, the Cardinals should be the favorites in the National League.

10.) Los Angeles Dodgers
Fact: For all the talk of the Dodgers barely being a .500 team with the Cy Young winner and a legitimate MVP candidate, they've won 36 of their last 49 games.
Opinion: The Dodgers are one of the two teams with the steepest uphill trend in this young season. The other one is the...

9.) Washington Nationals
MLB Facts and Opinions
Manny Acta's got something
good going on in Washington
Fact: The Nationals have four starting pitchers with an ERA below 2.05
Opinion: The Nationals have shown depth within all aspects of their roster construction.

8.) Atlanta Braves
Fact: Brandon Beachy has a 0.47 ERA
Opinion: I'm thoroughly enjoying the Jason Heyward bounce back tour.

7.) Cincinnati Reds
Fact: Aroldis Chapman: 9 IP, 0 Runs, 17 strikeouts, 0 walks
Opinion: When will Aroldis Chapman get a chance to shine as a starter? He's a peacock!

6.) Arizona Diamondbacks
Fact: Joe Saunders has a 1.29 ERA
Opinion: If possible, the Angels, and fantasy owners, should sell high on Joe Saunders.

5.) NY Yankees
Fact: Of all "small sample size" warnings to go for this entire post, this one may have the most need for a warning... The Yankees defense has allowed the worst BABIP in all of baseball: .345
Opinion: It's a new game, when budgetary constraints are evident in the Bronx. The passion of the fans remains as high as any in baseball, but we haven't seen the younger generation of Steinbrenners throw financial caution to the wind to ensure competitiveness.

4.) LA Angels
Fact: Kendrys Morales still hasn't walked, after 50 plate appearances.
Opinion: It's too early to panic and let the Angels tumble too far. While we're glad we predicted the Rangers would be better than Anaheim's club, the Angels still have enough starting pitching to be competitive in September.

3.) Tampa Bay Rays
Fact: Carlos Pena has a 1.003 OPS
Opinion: Matt Moore enthusiasts, like myself, are patiently waiting for him to put it all together. Until then, it's TOO MANY WALKS.

2.) Detroit Tigers
Fact: Good: Justin Verlander has a .798 WHIP, Bad: Max Scherzer has a 7.98 ERA, Ugly: Ryan Raburn has 4 total bases in 46 plate appearances
Opinion: The Tigers need to reach base at a higher rate, and should look to upgrade at 2nd base or corner outfield.

1.) Texas Rangers
MLB Facts and Opinions
Neftali Feliz has taken to starting
Fact: The Rangers have scored the most runs per game in baseball (6.07) and allowed the fewest (2.67).
Opinion: Ron Washington would enter the Marv Levy discussion if the Rangers lose another World Series this year. We still think they're going to win it all.

All stats provided by Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs, through games up to Sunday, April 22nd action.

2012 MLB Predictions

Spring is the time of rebirth and hope. This is the most hopeful time of year. Baseball is Spring. Hope is in the air, unless you're a realistic fan of teams from Houston, Oakland, Chicago, or Baltimore.

In towns all over the U.S., baseball fans are cling to hope. We've talked about hope here a few times before. Since 1909, there's not much more that Cubs fans have been able to hold dear other than blissful, optimistic hope.

On the other side of the docket, fans of "good" teams have high expectations. With those expectations comes pressure. Professionals should separate pressure from their realities. Don't ever get too high or too low. Baseball will humble the best players in the world - constantly.

The world of making baseball predictions is as fraught with mistakes as hitting Major League pitching. Unlike the NBA, no-one can predict with confidence most of the teams that'll make the postseason. Very few things are clear, except that less than 50% of our predictions will probably ring true. Heck, predicting the postseason is virtually futile on the last day of the regular season, let alone the first. Yet, here we are, doing our best because predictions should be fun. Anything is possible; everything is possible.

Let's do this.

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
New York Mets

Let's start with what we do know. Sorry, Mets fans. The Mets will finish in last place. The top four teams in this division should all be in contention in August/September and could finish in reverse order as we have here. The Phillies have excellent starting pitching, next-to-no hitting, poor defense, and an expensive, unlikable hayseed closer. The Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball, great starting pitching, and a balanced lineup with several players who should have better seasons than they did last season. Question marks around the health of Tommy Hanson, Chipper Jones, and Tim Hudson could derail their season, but in the meantime they look alright. The two most up-and-coming teams are in Miami and DC. Did the Marlins load up with enough free agents? I feel like their starting pitching could lead them to the promised land or finish with their best players on the DL. Overall, they may still be one or two pieces away from owning the East. The Nationals are an exciting, likable team with young starts are both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, I have this nagging feeling that they, too, are still a year away.

Continuing our tradition from last season, here is our Preseason NL East All-Pro Team.

C: Brian McCann, Braves
2012 MLB Predictions
Here's the new kid in town
1b: Freddie Freeman, Braves
2b: Dan Uggla, Braves
SS: Jose Reyes, Marlins
3b: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
LF: Logan Morrison, Marlins
CF: Shane Victorino, Phillies
RF: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
SP: Cole Hamels, Phillies
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves

NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros

Once again, the only lock here is the cellar dwelling Astros. They resemble a Triple-A team right now, and not an especially good one. All is not lost, though. Even though Keith Law has them down to lose 110 games this season, there is hope in the future because their franchise is now in the capable hands of Jeff Luhnow, their new General Manager. The Cubs and Pirates may compete by 2014, while the Astros should be a year or two behind them. The World Champion Cardinals are reloading. They're replacing Tony LaRussa with Mike Matheny and Albert Pujols with Carlos Beltran. They might be fine and win this division again. We placed the Brewers ahead of them, mostly with confidence in Zack Greinke. As you'll see in our postseason predictions below, we feel the Reds are the class of this division, with a stellar bullpen, a dynamic lineup, and enough Starting Pitching to approach 90 wins.

Preseason NL Central All-Pro Team
C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals
2012 MLB Predictions
Something's different
1b: Joey Votto, Reds
2b: Rickie Weeks, Brewers
SS: Starlin Castro, Cubs
3b: Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
LF: Ryan Braun, Brewers
CF: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
RF: Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
SP: Zack Greinke, Brewers
RP: Joel Hanrahan, Pirates

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers

The West should be wild again, as anything could happen this season. With little confidence, we feel the D'backs have the fewest holes, and our affinity for Kevin Towers extends to giving him the benefit of the doubt over everyone else. While we love the Reds this year, particularly with the acquisition of Mat Latos, we also love what the Padres got in exchange for their young ace. The Padres essentially traded one Opening Day starter (Latos) for another (Edinson Volquez). Plus, they received stud prospects Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal. Their bullpen is very good, with Huston Street assuming the Heath Bell roll. Andrew Cashner will get hitters out, while lighting up the radar gun in the 8th inning, not to mention the likes of Luke Gregorson and Anthony Bass will give Bud Black a dependable stable throughout the Summer.  Colorado could win the World Series or finish in last place. The Giants have been able to stay competitive in spite of Brian Sabean's archaic decision making skills because of their pitching. One of the reasons we have them this low is because we don't expect their two best relievers, Wilson and Romo, to stay healthy. The Dodgers will face the competition once again with arguably the best starting pitcher, relief pitcher, and hitter in the world, and little else.

Preseason NL West All-Pro Team
C: Miguel Motero, Diamondbacks
1b: Todd Helton, Rockies (!)
2b: Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
3b: Pablo Sandoval, Giants
LF: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
CF: Matt Kemp, Dodgers
RF: Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
SP: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
RP: Kenley Jansen, Dodgers

NL MVP: Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NL RoY: Zack Cozart, Reds
NL Mgr: Dusty Baker, Reds
NL Comeback PoY: Jason Heyward, Braves
NL Exec of Yr: Walt Jocketty, Reds

AL East
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 MLB Predictions
Matt Moore is a star in the making
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles

The balance of power has suddenly shifted away from the AL East. For the first time in a really long time, a handful of teams from outside the division could theoretically compete with the giants of New York and Boston. Just in the American League, Texas, Detroit, and the Angels would be tough to beat in this division. We're going for the Rays because of pitching and defense. Their offense may not be world beaters, but they won't get themselves out. The Yankees, of course, will be there in the end. It'd be no surprise to see them win the division. Meanwhile, Toronto and Boston are going in opposite direction. The Blue Jays have outstanding starting pitching, a nice bullpen with a tough, young closer, and power throughout most of their lineup. Toronto also happens to employ the manager that Boston would prefer. Speaking of which, Bobby Valentine is off to a questionable start. His decision to use Alfredo Aceves in place of injured closer, Andrew Bailey is a head scratcher. First, it's a misuse of a valuable reliever who can pitch multiple innings. Second, the Red Sox have a guy well-suited for the roll in Mark Melancon. Lastly, and his reason for the decision was terrible. Bobby V said he likes that Aceves is familiar with the American League. Isn't that just the stupidest thing you've heard in the past few days? Why would you tout someone who the AL hitters are more familiar with? All you need is a pitcher to be familiar with his catcher and the strike zone. The Orioles have a nice lineup but with little pitching and the worst owner in baseball*, they don't stand a chance.

Preseason AL East All-Pro Team
C: Matt Wieters, Orioles
1b: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
2b: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
SS: J.J. Hardy, Orioles
3b: Evan Longoria, Rays
LF: Brett Gardner, Yankees
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
RF: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox
SP: David Price, Rays
RP: Mariano Rivera, Yankees

*It's not easy to call someone not named Jeffrey Loria the "worst owner in baseball", but we just did it. The movement to #OccupyEutawStreet is one near and dear to our hearts.

AL Central
Detroit Tigers
2012 MLB Predictions
Prince and Little Caesar's are
a perfect combination.
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins

Finally, we have a certain pick that isn't the last place team. The Tigers have the best chance of any team in baseball to run away with their division. Their only real concerns have to do with their infield defense and ability to score runs from players other than Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. The times they are a-changin' in Kansas City. There homegrown talent is blossoming right before our eyes. Cleveland is sort of in no man's land. They don't have the cache to scare casual fans, but they play the game right, mostly as a reflection of their excellent manager, Manny Acta. The White Sox are going to try and compete for a few weeks, but don't be surprised if they're the first team to throw up a white flag in June. Minnesota has very little to offer. It's sad, but the best thing the Twins have going for them is that their fans are relatively friendly*.

Preseason AL Central All-Pro Team
C: Carlos Santana, Indians
1b: Prince Fielder, Tigers
2b: Jason Kipnis, Indians
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
3b: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
LF: Alex Gordon, Royals
CF: Denard Span, Twins
RF: Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
DH: Billy Butler, Royals
SP: Justin Verlander, Tigers
RP: Jose Valverde, Tigers

This seems as good a place as any to share a fabulous new Twins commercial, inspire by the Coen brothers' masterpiece, The Big Lebowski:

AL West
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels of The O.C.
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics

This division could have the two best teams in baseball. The Rangers have done just about everything right for the past three years, and consistently have shown the ability to groom pitchers for success in a way that maybe only Dave Duncan could surpass. This year, they even brought Greg Maddux into the fold. Practical jokes aside, that cannot hurt the ball club.The Angels and Marlins made the biggest splashes this offseason, but their offense may not be where it needs to be to be world beaters. Alas, that's why they play the games. At the absolute minimum, the Angels have excellent starting pitching and a very good manager. The Mariners won't be in the race at the end, but they are getting better. Oakland, unfortunately, is looking at 2015 and San Jose for the promised land.

Preseason AL West All-Pro Team
C: Mike Napoli, Rangers
2012 MLB Predictions
Familiar faces in new places
1b: Albert Pujols, Angels
2b: Ian Kinsler, Rangers
SS: Elvis Andrus, Rangers
3b: Adrian Beltre, Rangers
LF: Coco Crisp, Athletics
CF: Josh Hamilton, Rangers
RF: Nelson Cruz, Rangers
DH: Jesus Montero, Mariners
SP: Jered Weaver, Angels
RP: Mike Adams, Rangers

We may not agree on all the Rangers listed above, but they sure have a great team again!

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, Angels
AL RoY: Yu Darvish, Rangers
AL Mgr: Joe Maddon, Rays
AL Comeback PoY: Kendrys Morales, Angels
AL Exec of Yr: Dayton Moore, Royals

Postseason
AL Wildcard
Yankees over Angels

NL Wildcard
Braves over Marlins

AL Division Series
2012 MLB Predictions
Adrian Beltre can hit 'em and pick 'em
Rangers over Yankees
Rays over Tigers

NL Division Series
Reds over Braves
Phillies over D'backs

ALCS
Rangers over Rays

NLCS
Reds over Phillies

World Series
Rangers over Reds

World Series MVP
Adrian Beltre

Non-Displaced Fracture of the Orbital Floor

From Lynn Henning's update on Miguel Cabrera's injury:
Neither the Tigers, nor Cabrera, expect that last year's American League batting champion will miss Opening Day, April 5 at Comerica Park.
Am I in the minority thinking that MiggyCab won't be ready for Opening Day? It wouldn't be the first time, but then again, I think of the words "non-displaced fracture of the orbital floor" and my optimism begins to fade. Get well soon, Miguel! Baseball fans need you. Some of them don't even know it.

Non-Displaced Fracture of the Orbital Floor
Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers, right, was injured on a ground ball
hit by Phillies outfielder Hunter Pence. (Reuters/Steve Nesius)

Spanning the Blogosphere

Featuring quotes and whispers from sites around the globe.


Freddy Garcia could use an attitude adjustment, as he does not at all appear to be pleased that his team is trying to get better by bringing back one of the franchise's living legends.

Andy Pettitte isn't making the Opening Day roster. If Pettitte is good enough in his Minor League appearances, come April or May, he will take the place of the Yankees' least effective starter.

The natural instinct that's causing Freddy Garcia to be territorial and defensive about his role with the club has a strong stench of immaturity, and it's steering him wrong. Maybe he just doesn't like being on the Yankees and wants to get traded.

When asked if he thought signing Andy Pettitte was good for the team, Freddy Garcia said, “I don’t know. Ask the people. I guess.”
- From: Dan Martin, NY Post 18 March, 2012


Spanning the Blogosphere
Something tells me Freddy wants a one-way ticket out of the Bronx.
(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II) 



The Padres suffered a tough blow this weekend, as their new Left Fielder, Carlos Quentin, faces surgery and will be out four to six weeks. Jesus Guzman has been learning to pay outfield and figures to step in and play well. Chris Denorfia and Kyle Blanks are trying to make an impact with the Padres when opportunity knocks.

Speaking of Kyle Blanks, this is harmless and out of context, but Bud Black should have chosen better words: “Batting average isn't the only thing we look at. We look at quality at-bats.”
- From: John Maffei, North County Times 14 March, 2012

We've always been bullish on Kyle Blanks, but the feeling is beginning to change. It's easy to say he could use a change of scenery, move to a better park for power hitters, and have a daily spot in the lineup. It's tough to go out and get him, though, because the Padres are starving for power hitters. If Kyle Blanks can hit, he will play in San Diego. It's same as any profession. Kyle Blanks, like Freddy Garcia and everyone else, needs to perform.

Spanning the Blogosphere
Kyle Blanks needs playing time and the Padres need power.
(US PRESSWIRE Photo/Christopher Hanewinckel)


We heard a couple of good Texas-based Baseball Whispers in this weekend's edition by Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune. Namely, Carlos Lee is more than 20 lbs overweight "The Astros hoped he would report at 250 pounds but instead he was 274." - and - The Texas Rangers could be interested in answering their question mark in Centerfield by reacquiring Marlon Byrd in a trade with the Cubs. "The Rangers aren't happy with their internal options in center — the young Cuban Leonys Martin is not ready — and are trying to move reliever Koji Uehara, who would could provide innings in an uncertain Cubs' bullpen." Koji Uehara would probably just be a trading chip for the Cubs to flip, but his no-trade clause protects him if he chooses to avoid that scenario. Still, trading Marlon Byrd for anything useful would be a big win for the rebuilding Cubs.

Spanning the Blogosphere
Let's send Marlon Byrd back to Arlington. Free Marlon Byrd!
(Photo by Keith Allison)

Now playing on the radio: "You may be a businessman or some high-degree thief. They may call you Doctor or they may call you Chief" - Gotta Serve Somebody, by Bob Dylan