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Starling Marte, of the Pirates, has 2 hits in 4 straight games.

Colby Rasmus has 4 this year, 3 of which are home runs. He'll probably hit 20+ HR's and hit .220 for the Blue Jays.

Make no mistake, Matt Harvey is a dominant pitcher. The Mets blew the doors off the Roy Halladay Farewell Tour with Harvey on the hill. Harvey's next start, against the lowly Minnesota Twins on Sunday at 2pm ET is appointment television. How bad are the Twins right now? As of Wednesday morning, Fangraphs has them ranked 27th out of 30th in Wins Above Replacement, and the only team with a Blutarsky esque 0.0 WAR. Even worse, Baseball-Reference has them ranked last, with a negative (-0.7) WAR. Speaking of the Twins offense, specifically, they are also ranked last with minus-7 Runs Above Replacement.

In his last five games, Jose Reyes has reached base safely 14 times. Factoring into the unfortunate 2-5 start for the Blue Jays must be that Jose Reyes has a .516 On Base Percentage but has only scored 5 runs.

Power? Yes. Speed? Not so much.

Wilin Rosario stole two bases off Tim Lincecum and Hector Sanchez. The box score shows the first stolen base was with Michael Cuddyer on 3rd base, and the second one was on a swinging strikeout. I'm not sure how much any of that factored into the stolen base, but I wouldn't expect Rosario to break out for double digit steals this season. He's listed at 5'11 220 and looks bigger.

Mike Moustakas got his first RBI of the season last night. His teammate, Alex Gordon, on the other hand is having a fine season. Gordon has reached base safely in all eight Royals games this year, scoring 9 runs with an attractive 1.035 OPS.

Adam Lind, who started out the season in the best shape of his life, and 0-for-13, was kept out of the starting lineup the last two games, but is back in there this afternoon, batting 5th between Edwin Encarnacion and J.P. Arencibia.

In his last 3 starts, the Cardinals' Matt Carpenter has 7 hits and 7 runs scored.

The Braves have inserted Evan Gattis into the heart of their lineup, and he delivered with his second HR of the year last night. It's been almost two days since Justin Upton hit his 6th home run of the year. So, he's probably due for another one today.

Today's pick to click is Jordan Zimmermann vs the White Sox.

We're pretty jazzed for the Nationals / Braves series this weekend.

In honor of MLB's first 15-game day, and as we did in June of '09, we present our brief notes from perusing the box scores, attempting to answer 'What happened last night?'

Cubs 0 at Pirates 3
Caught much of this game on TV, and my Opening Week eyes liked what they saw from Edwin Jackson. He gave up two runs through five innings, but missed some bats early in the game. I didn't see Hector Rondon pitch, although he's a guy I want to keep an eye on. One of his two walks was an intentional pass of Neal Walker before getting Russel Martin to ground out. I've seen about enough of Michael Bowden, who gave up a run in the 7th.

The better pitching performance came from the Pirates. Wandy Rodriguez limited the Cubs to two hits and one walk through six and two-thirds. Pittsburgh's bullpen closed the game out with steel curtain perfection. Southpaw Tony Watson bridged the gap to closer Jason Grilli in the 9th by making mincemeat of Alberto Gonzalez, David DeJesus, pinch-hitter Dioner Navarro, and Starlin Castro. Protecting a 3-0 lead, Grilli needed only 9 pitches to get a groundout from Anthony Rizzo and game ending strikeouts by Alfonso Soriano and Nate Schierholtz.

Rangers 4 at Astros 0

Lance Berkman is still an Astro

In another shutout, this remained a tense 1-0 game, where the only run scored on a double play, until a 3-run 8th inning engineered by the heart of the Rangers order. Alexi Ogando had good results, striking out ten in six and a third. Big Puma, Lance Berkman, had a successful first series as a Ranger, going 6-for-10 with 3 walks.

Marlins 0 at Nationals 3
Our last shutout of the evening happened to the always shutoutable Miami Marlins. This time, it was Gio Gonzalez's turn to allow only four base runners through six innings. Kevin Slowey didn't pitch badly, but a lineup with Polanco/Ruggiano/Olivo in its 4/5/6 slots leaves a pitcher no room for error.

Royals 2 at White Sox 5
It's great to see Jake Peavy competing in the American League with a sub-3.50 ERA. He had a bad injury for power pitchers and has rebounded to give his career arc a pleasantly surprising bump. Ervin Santana, on the other hand, gave up a home run in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings. Robin Ventura did his best Tony La Russa imporesonation, as four relievers earned Holds before Addison Reed came on to earn his 2nd save of the year with a perfect 9th.

Phillies 2 at Braves 9

Freeman leads the NL in Batting Avg and OBP

The demise of Roy Halladay took another abrupt tumble in the 1st and 4th innings yesterday, punctuated by Justin Upton's 2nd homer of the year, Evan Gattis's first home run of his career, and a 3-run double by Freddie Freeman.

Tigers 2 at Twins 3
Saw the end of this game as it happened. The Tigers were victimized by their bullpen and outfield defense. Jim Leyland used Joaquin Benoit for the eight inning and tried extending him for the leadoff hitter in the 9th. As the Tigers' TV guy noted, this was mainly due to Phil Coke's platoon split. So, Benoit stays in to face the right-handed Trevor Plouffe and promptly walks him. Enter Phil Coke who gets a flyout before giving up a single to Brian Dozier and and game-winning 2-run double to Eduardo Escobar. Not much was made of the fact that Escobar's fly ball should have been caught, but it should have been caught. Wilkin Ramirez had a pinch-hit RBI double in the 7th, but he came up even bigger in the postgame interview, as Eduardo Escobar's translator. Ramirez is a great translator because he's not even that easy to understand in English. Go Twins!

Padres 4 at Mets 8
The main story for the game last night has to do with Mets' young gun Matt Harvey and can be summed up by this authentic tweet from @ManganTime:

#HarveyHorse 7IP 1H 10K @bobbyaguilera
— Chris Mangan (@ManganTime) April 4, 2013

The other thing about the Mets is to take note of their offense. They've scored 19 runs in 2 games. Two games is such a a ridiculously small sample size that this next stat is more for comedy than statistical significance. For all the ridicule we've heard of the Mets outfield, only the Mets and the Rockies have three outfielders ranked in the Top 20 National League Outfielders in wOBA, wRC+, and WAR. They are doing this in 2013 with Marlon Byrd.

Red Sox 7 at Yankees 4
Hiroki Kuroda failed to get out of the second inning, in part from taking a line drive off the fingers, and the Red Sox bombarded the Yankees with eighteen base runners. Clay Buchholz got through 7 innings with a tidy 94 pitches. Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells hit their first home runs as Yankees. Good times.

Rockies 7 at Brewers 3
One of our favorite fantasy sleepers, Wily Peralta, failed to impress. He really needs to improve his first-strike percentage. Peralta threw a strike on the first pitch to a batter only 23% of the time last night, while the league average is 60%. Last year, he was at 61%, so there's still hope.

There are red flags everywhere surrounding John Axford. If you own him in fantasy, you should be considering a contingency plan.

Indians 3 at Blue Jays 2
Saw a bit of this game, watching Brandon Morrow, we still expect great things from him. The first run that Cleveland scored, on a Michael Brantley single between shortstop and 3rd base looked like something Jose Ryes could have at least kept in the infield to save the run. Maybe it was an odd camera angle, or my Opening Week eyes are failing me again, but it looked like Reyes might have Roger Dorn'd it a bit. Mark Reynolds won the game with an 11th inning home run off Sergio Santos.

Cardinals 9 at Diamondbacks 10
The most talked about game was this 16-inning epic in the desert. Neither starter had it in this game, but the bullpens were pretty good. The day after throwing 24 pitches through one and a third innings, Josh Collmenter entered in the 12th inning, and fought through five innings on 78 pitches to earn the Win.

Orioles 7 at Rays 8
Perhaps the most entertaining game of the night, Chris Davis got the action started with a 3-run home run off Jeremy Hellickson in the first inning. Davis would go 4-for-4 on the night. I sawa bit of this game, too, and Wei-Yin Chen did that thing where he throws pitches that look hittable until you swing at them. Batters were shaking their heads or sheepishly smiling after making outs. The Orioles bullpen let Chen down by allowing six earned runs in two and a third innings. It was an entertaining game with scores of 3-0, 4-0, 4-4, 5-4, 5-7, 6-7, 7-7, and the final after a Matt Joyce walk-off home run in the 9th.

Here's the Win Probability Chart for the game:


Source: FanGraphs

Giants 5 at Dodgers 3

Lincecum was effectively wild

Brandon Belt has been out with a stomach virus, but the Giants made due without him. The defending world champions survived a 5-inning performance from Tim Lincecum that included 7 walks because he gave up only 3 hits and the combination of George Kontos, Javier Lopez, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Romo threw four shutout innings. Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence homered for the Giants. Carl Crawford went 3-for-4 in a losing effort.

Mariners 2 at Athletics 6
The Mariners got off to a hot start, with their leadoff and cleanup hitters hitting solo homeruns in the top of the first. Unfortunately for Seattle, their scoring ended there. The A's avoided a season opening sweep with a strong starting performance by Tom Milone (7 IP, 2 R, 4 H, 1 BB) and timely hitting. Jed Lowrie went 3-for-3 with a HR. Nate Freiman, making his Major League debut, got the A's scoring started with an RBI single in the 2nd. Chris Young, making his A's debut, hit a solo home run when the team was already up 5-2.

Reds 5 at Angels 4
I keep forgetting that the Astros/Rangers series is not the inter-league game going on right now. As most fans know, there will be an inter-league series going on at all times this year because we now have 15 teams in each league. The takeaways from this game include the insignificant fact that Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are still hitless. Brandon Phillips was responsible for much of the offense, hitting a 3-run home run in the 4th inning. Zach Cozart is still hitless. Aroldis Chapman came in for the top of the 9th of a tie game, allowed a walk in a hitless 9th, and earned the Win. The Reds won in walkoff fashion as reliever Scott Downs started the bottom of the 9th with a hit batsmen. Shin-Soo Choo now leads the league with two HBP. Number two hitter, Chris Heisey, sacrificed Choo over to second base. Joey Votto knocked Choo in on a single, and they were dancing on the banks of the Ohio river.

In this, the season of the GIF, we got another winner last night from the Angels game.


Hey, look at that, we're about an hour from first pitch in Pittsburgh. Thanks for reading; enjoy the games!

We have yet to determine the finest GIF from Sunday night's game, but Monday had A.J. Burnett messing around with a white powder. Tuesday night, at a Blue Jays game, a fired up fan caught a bat that flew into the stands. Slightly insane playfulness ensued:


While this guy's family seeks out counselling, the rest of us can look forward to Wednesday being our first day with a full, 15-game schedule. Make more GIF's and enjoy the games!

Courtesy of something called DeckersDelight on the burgeoning /baseball subreddit, we get an Opening Day gif for the ages, starring the Pittsburgh Pirates' A.J. Burnett and his resin bag.



Is it rosin bag? Or, resin bag? Ah, who cares?

Happy Opening Day!

The Texas Rangers' toolsie teen prospect, Jairo Beras, is suspended until July 1st but still allowed to play in unofficial, minor league Spring Training games.

By the looks of his @jairoberas twitter profile pic, Beras is taking care to look nice during suspension.

Tonight's gonna be a good night!

There are no Jairo Beras stats to look at. He doesn't even have a baseball-reference page. We have scouting reports, like this good one from scoutingbook.com. In it, we learn "A hulking, powerful outfielder [snip] has projectable plus power from the right side of the plate, good overall athleticism, a strong throwing arm and good speed for a man of his size."

To appreciate the potential brilliance of Jairo Beras, we must revert to physical methods of scouting with our eyes and ears. Below are a couple of videos that give us a look at Jairo Beras's game with contrary results.

Here he is about a week ago...



Here's what Beras looks like when he gets it all together.



That last one is a good one to listen to.

The Juan Gonzalez comps are going to stick as long as he's showing power in the Rangers system. All comparisons aside, we expect great things from Jairo Beras.

Only a couple of weeks away from Opening Day, let's check in on each position around Major League Baseball.

Entering a new golden age, the catcher position boasts top-tier talent: Yadier Molina and his world class defense, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer's hitting tools, and Matt Wieters flashing power from both sides of the plate.

Salvy Perez is the belle of the ball.

Carlos Santana should vault himself into the conversation with a career year this season or next. The Indians have been proactive about preserving his body, with over 100 starts at first base or DH over the past two years.

Victor Martinez, Mike Napoli, and Brian McCann are limping away from full-time duty behind the plate. V-Mart will DH in Detroit. Napoli will split time between first base and DH in Boston. McCann, recovering from shoulder surgery, is hoping to to be back by May 1st. The Braves will have to limit his starts this year, or trade him to an AL team. Next season, McCann will probably go to an American League team as a free agent and reestablish himself as a professional hitter with 100+ starts at DH and around 50 behind the plate.

It would be nice to see Jason Castro of the Astros raise his game. He has an opportunity to play as much as any National League catcher his age. Spring Training stats are not to be trusted, but they can be enjoyed. In ten games this Spring, Castro is hitting .450 with 3 HR's and 4 walks to just 5 strikeouts.

This position is deeper than in recent times, with at least 20 really good catchers in baseball and prospects like Travis d'Arnaud, Mike Zunino, Evan Gattis, and Gary Sanchez knocking on the door.

Fantasy Tips: Wait on catcher in non-keeper leagues. "Safe" alternatives may even be available as free agents between your draft and Opening Day. Personal favorites: Salvador Perez (AVG + HR), Jonathan Lucroy (HR), Alex Avila (hitter), Jesus Montero (hitter), and Wilin Rosario (HR). Devin Mesoraco is a future offensive standout. Ryan Doumit isn't terrible. Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Tyler Flowers could be nice surprises in the last round, or for $1. Yasmani Grandal will be a good player to add after his 50-game suspension.

Unlike the catcher position, first base has always been deep, and this year is no different. Look what happened last season with Freddie Freeman, for instance. He ranked 18th in ESPN's Player Rater last year, but his season was not that bad. Look at Freeman and the four players ranked directly ahead of him...

2012 Outfield ESPN Player Rater (14th-18th)
14. Paul Konerko 144 G, 66 R, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 0 sb, .298 Avg
15. Nick Swisher 148 G, 75 R, 24 HR, 93 RBI, 2 sb, .272 Avg
15. Garrett Jones: 145 G, 68 R, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 2 sb, .274 Avg
17. Joey Votto: 111 G, 59 R, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 5 sb, .337 Avg
18. Freddie Freeman 147 G, 91 R, 23 HR, 94 RBI, 2 sb, .259 Avg

Hi, Ryan, you stink.

Young players like Freeman, Ike Davis, Anthony Rizzo, Eric Hosmer, and Brandon Belt should raise their games this season.

The Astros have Brett Wallace penciled in for first base, with Carlos Peña serving as primary DH. If Matt Dominguez can't hit, Wallace could more to 3rd base, opening playing time for Rule V pick Nate Frieman. Houston would actually be a prime trade partner of the Yankees, as the Bronx Bombers look for corner infield help. Brett Wallace to the Yankees for a Top 10-20 prospect makes some sense for New York and a lot of sense for Houston.

One of the deepest sleepers of all time, Nate Freiman has shown patience and power in the minors. In 483 minor league games, Freiman hit 207 HR's with a robust .294/.364/.482 slash line. Unfortunately, his best case scenario for immediate playing time in Houston is as a pinch-hitter / once-a-week starter. Who knows? Freiman's ceiling might be that of Brian LaHair, who's preparing to play the 2013 season in Japan. Out of the Astros eligible at first base, Chris Carter is our favorite. We'll get back to him in the Outfield section, as the Astros are playing him in Left.

Sorting through stats on Baseball Prospectus, we stumbled across Others Batted In Percentage, a rate stat measuring the percentage of runners batted in, other than the batter himself when he homers. Among all hitters with at least 125 plate appearances last season, Adrian Gonzalez shows up twice in the Top 15 in this category, a curious bunch:

Highest 2013 OBI% (min 125 PA's)
Carl Crawford, BOS 25%

Adrian Gonzalez is a good RBI guy, no matter what team he's on...

Marco Scutaro, SFN 24.4%
Chris Johnson, ARI 23.3%
Josh Hamilton, TEX 22.2%
Miguel Cabrera, DET 21.4%
Adrian Gonzalez, BOS 21.1%
Torii Hunter, ANA 20.8%
Carlos Lee, MIA 20.5%
Chris Nelson, COL 20.3%
Tyler Colvin, COL 20.2%
Carlos Ruiz, PHI 20%
Will Middlebrooks, BOS 20%
Chase Headley, SDN 19.9%
Travis Ishikawa, MIL 19.8%
Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 19.8%

That's a pretty interesting group of hitters. I'm sure we'll talk about Chris Johnson, when we get to third base. That guy is a trip. In 18 spring training games, he still doesn't have a walk, and due to a sacrifice fly, his OBP is lower than his Batting Average.

Fantasy Tips: Wait, wait, wait, wait. Replacement level fantasy first base stat lines will be about .270 BA, 20 HR, 75+ runs and RBI's. Each player will provide a little bit more or less in each category, and you can choose which one you like more. Personal Favorites: Hosmer, Freeman, Allen Craig, Anthony Rizzo, Lance Berkman, Ike Davis, Chris Davis, and Brandon Belt.

We've discussed Robinson Cano again and again around these parts. We think he will have a great season. He will probably have a handful of more very good seasons. Will the Yankees bring him back? He is probably not going to be worth a 10-year pact, and New York's front office has lately shown restraint to let post-prime stars go to Los Angeles and Anaheim instead of the Bronx.

Jedd Gyorko has a little pop.

News out of Padres camp have highly rated prospect, Jedd Gyorko, winning the Friars' second base job. As a converted third baseman with power, he's an exciting prospect. Strikeouts could become a big problem, but if he can make contact, he could rank just beneath the Danny Espinosa / Howie Kendrick tier. Is he going to be better than Dustin Ackley? Will anyone be better than Ackley?

Brian Roberts is supposedly healthy in Baltimore, and part of me says he's a good bet to have a productive season, as a veteran leader on an exciting, young team. The other part of me tells me that he's a 'roided out retread, with a body that's always a day away from where it wants to be.

The opening in the Cardinals lineup adds the most intrigue to this position. Matt Carpenter can hit and play multiple positions. Will he be a starter or utility player for St. Louis? Kolten Wong is a guy that has been talked about in prospect circles for a few years. Daniel Descalso is in the mix, and Ronny Cedeno could give it a shot if Pete Kozma takes shortstop. The Cardinals will be a good team again, and it looks like they could choose offense over defense to see who plays second base. Matt Carpenter would be the best choice for fantasy players.

Fantasy Tips: Decide for yourself if Gyorko, Carpenter are worth sleeping on. If not, invest highly in Robinson Cano or to a lesser extent, make sure you get Ben Zobrist. According to ESPN's live draft results, Zobrist is going after Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips. Take Zobrist before Phillips to be safe.

Jose Iglesias will have his chances to claim the title of best defensive shortstop in the world, but this year the accolades will likely go to Atlanta's Andrelton Simmons. Extra small sample size warning talking about defense, and only 425 innings last year, but in that brief moment, scouts and stats agree that his defense was superlative. The numbers even had him above Brendan Ryan. Here's a look at Defensive Runs Saved above Average per Year (Rdrs/yr), for 2012, min 400 innings...


Simmons is not much of a hitter, lacking any threat of power. Fortunately, he makes enough contact to find extra hits here and there. His 87.6% contact percentage is 7.9% higher than the 79.7% league average.

There are injury and aging risks with a lot of the games top shortstops. Some of the youngest players are one or two tool stars who can play good defense, and maybe hit or run a little. Starlin Castro is the best positioned player to take a big step forward towards the top of the class in 2013. Look at the ages of the top shortstops, according to FantasyPros.com ADP compliation from Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, Fox Sports, and MockDraftCentral:

No-one's better than a healthy Tulo

Troy Tulowitzki (28)
Hanley Ramirez (29)
Jose Reyes (30)
Starlin Castro (23)
Ben Zobrist (32)
Ian Desmond (27)
Jimmy Rollins (34)
Elvis Andrus (24)
Asdrubal Cabrera (27)
Danny Espinosa (26)
Derek Jeter (39)

Beware of Ian Desmond. He looks good, sandwiched between two tiers of Shortstops, with 25 HR's, 21 SB's, and a .292 batting average last season. Peripheral stats tell another story. He strikes out too much and was a bit lucky with the BABIP, but most notably he had an otherworldly HR/FB rate of 18.2%, which he will not be repeating. Desmond is more likely to end up with .270 batting average, 15 HR's and 15 steals, than a .290 average and 20/20 season.

Cub fans are hoping Starlin Castro has the work ethic and focus to become the best Shortstop in the land.

Fantasy Tips: Beware of Ian Desmond. We like the top five of Tulo, Reyes, Castro, Hanley, and Zobrist, although Hanley appears a bit overvalued at the moment. If you do not want one of these guys, skip the middle tiers and sleep on Shortstop. Depending on what your team needs later in the draft/auction, select a Shortstop from the likes of Danny Espinosa (HR/SB), Alcides Escobar (SB), J.J. Hardy (HR), Everth Cabrera (SB), or Zack Cozart (HR).

Chris Johnson, as we mentioned before, is an aggressive hitter. When he sees a pitch he likes, he tries to hit it hard. This makes him a good RBI man, as we saw in the OBI% statistic in our First Base section. What Johnson does not take into account is that his aggressiveness hampers his ability to reach base. This year, Johnson could follow the footsteps of Chipper Jones and become the starting third baseman in Atlanta, or more likely he will end up on the short end of a platoon with left-handed batter, Juan Francisco.

Excitement at the hot corner comes from future Hall of Famer, Miguel Cabrera, all time great Adrian Beltre, faces of their franchises: Evan Longoria, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman, new kid on the block Chase Headley, fine wine Aramis Ramirez, Canada's favorite brah Brett Lawrie, Big Panda, new D'back Martin Prado, Cardinals star David Freese, powerful super prospects Pedro Alvarez and Mike Moustakas, switch-hitting Kyle Seager, late-blooming Todd Frazier, new youk Will Middlebrooks, and Youk himself.

Looking at last year's 3rd basemen ranked by Baseball Prospectus' Runs Above Replacement Position adjusted (RARP) is a good reflection of offensive production...

Miguel Cabrera 59.4

Aramis is aging like a fine wine.

Chase Headley 56.9
David Wright 52.7
Adrian Beltre 50.3
Aramis Ramirez 39.9
Ryan Zimmerman 32.1
Evan Longoria 23.4
Kyle Seager 23
Chipper Jones 22.8
David Freese 22.6

Breaking news: Chase Headley jammed his thumb attempting to break up a double-play on Sunday. He may miss the start of the season. Stay close to the story to see if it is reason enough to drop Headley in the rankings, or a good opportunity to grab him at a discount if others do the same.

Fantasy Tips: MiggyCab is worthy of the #1 overall pick in drafts. That being said, third base is not as shallow as it has been in recent seasons. At this position, fantasy players can just take whomever they want. Personal favorites: MiggyCab, Wright, Headley, Zimmerman, Seager.

The sheer number or Major League outfielders with significant opportunities for playing time make it a position traditionally rife with sleepers. The positions are shallow, however, because the sleepers who could be the 60th or 80th best Outfielder are bigger long shots than aiming for the 12th or 20th best first baseman.

There are so many outfielders, that it's even harder to select a few to talk about. Matthew Berry's Love/Hate gimmick is a good template for sharing ideas on Outfielders. As a refresher, "hating" someone doesn't mean they are worse than someone who is "loved", the classifications have more to do with thinking if they are undervalued or overvalued, basically saying if you "love/hate" them at their current value. Make sense? Good. For right now, this a selection from our 2013 Outfield Hot/Cold:

Hot
Ryan Braun
Andrew McCutchen
Mike Trout
Jason Heyward
Jay Bruce
Ben Zobrist
Alex Gordon
Alejandro De Aza
Colby Rasmus
Cameron Maybin
Dexter Fowler
Adam Eaton
Domonic Brown
Travis Snider
Lorenzo Cain
Michael Cuddyer
Dayan Viciedo
David Murphy
Starling Marte
Lucas Duda
Avisail Garcia
Aaron Hicks

Cold
Josh Hamilton

Carlos Gomez ain't all that. The only Brewers outfielder worth rostering  is 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun.

Jose Bautista
Michael Bourn
Shane Victorino
Carl Crawford
Mark Trumbo
Carlos Gomez
Ben Revere
Michael Morse
Emilio Bonifacio

Our deepest outfield sleeper for 2013, we mentioned before, is a first baseman who doesn't have OF eligibility, yet: Chris Carter. News out of Astros training camp reports the team is converting Carter to Left Field. We all know Mike Trout was the best rookie in baseball last season, but did you know that Chris Carter had the second highest OPS among all qualified rookies last year? It's true!

Highest OPS by 2012 MLB Rookies (Qualified)
1. Mike Trout .963

Chris Carter is ready to hit into the Crawford Boxes

2. Chris Carter .864
3. Yasmani Grandal .863
4. Yoenis Cespedes .861
5. Wilin Rosario .843

Looking at players with Outfield eligibility, our top sleeper is Domonic Brown of the Phillies. Taking a look of the Average Draft Positions for Carter and Brown, we see some trends. Over the past three weeks, Chris Carter has dropped from 378th ranked player in the fantasypros.com composite rankings to 385th.

Domonic Brown, conversely, has risen from 387th to 262nd. His stock should continue rising, as he hit his 4th home run of the Spring this weekend and currently has a .375/.453/.625 batting line with 6 BB and 7K's in 20 spring training games.

Prospects to keep an eye on over the next calendar year include Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras, Aaron Hicks, and Billy Hamilton.

Fantasy Tips: A lot depends on how many starters you need to have. The position is, naturally, much deeper in 10-team leagues that start 3 outfielders, than in a 12-team league that starts 5. As a general rule of thumb, I would try to acquire at least 1 projected Top 10 outfielder and 1 Top 20 outfielder, even in shallow leagues.

Nobody ever talks about Wily Peralta. The soon to be 24-year old shouldn't have much of an innings limit, since he threw 185 innings last year. He's a big guy, listed at 6'2", 240 lbs. He throws very hard, with the highest average fastball velocity of all rookie starting pitchers who threw at least 20 innings. What's more, he placed 2nd among all starting pitchers who threw at least 20 innings last season:

Highest Average Fastball Velocity
2012 Starting Pitchers (min 20 ip)
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals 95.7 mph
Wily Peralta, Brewers 95.6 mph
David Price, Rays 95.5 mph
Danny Duffy, Royals 95.3 mph
Felipe Paulino, Royals 95.1 mph

Successful pitching involves more than just velocity, but it's good to note that one of the hardest throwing starters in the league is flying completely under the radar. A few peripheral stats that make Peralta look better include his 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 2.65 FIP, 55% groundball rate, and that all five of his pitches carry a positive value on Fangraphs.

JJ has a lot to prove this season

Another interesting hurler is Josh Johnson, who's entering a contract year at 29-years old. Moving from Florida to Toronto should raise his career 3.15 ERA, but even at a 4.00 ERA, Johnson could have an outstanding season. His injury history is well documented, but he has practiced an offseason training routine since the end of 2011, with preventative and strengthening physical therapy exercises.

Could Robbie Ross be the next big thing in Texas? He's been a lights out LOOGY, flashing the potential to be more. His 2-to-1 K/BB ratio, 62% ground ball percentage, and minimal platoon split (.632 OPS vs Righties and .613 OPS vs Lefties) give him a leg up on the competition for Rangers 5th starter.

Marco Estrada's time is now.

Marco Estrada is a fashionable sleeper, and with good reason. He's currently going undrafted in many ESPN standard drafts and can easily be acquired as your last SP off the board. His 24% Career K% rate is high enough to warrant being owned in all leagues. Currently owned in about 3 our of every 4 leagues, if Estrada gets off to a good start, he will be owned in 100% of leagues by May.

Matt Harvey is another unproven strikeout pitcher with the look of a rising star (28.6 K% in 2012; 21% projected K% in 2013). Harvey is not as much of a sleeper as Estrada, since he's owned in 100% of ESPN leagues. He can help teams a lot with K's, ERA, and WHIP, but the Mets will not be winning many of his games. Given Harvey's tender age (turning 24 in 9 days), an innings limit isn't completely out of question. Optimistically, he should be good for at least 185 innings, since he threw 170 last year.

A few other potential stars who are undervalued in our opinion, besides Josh Johnson, include Adam Wainwright, Jordan Zimmerman, R.A. Dickey, Kris Medlen, Matt Moore, Brandon Morrow, Matt Harrison, Alex Cobb, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chris Tillman, Paul Maholm, and James McDonald.

Prospects we think could be worth owning this year include Dylan Bundy, Trevor Bauer, Shelby Miller, Taijuan Walker, Alex White, and Gerrit Cole.

The Mariners have an abundance of pitching prospects, and Taijuan Walker could be the best of the bunch. Now, about that offense?

Fantasy Tips: Be risk averse. Much like running backs in fantasy football, get young studs who should be able to stay healthy for at least this season. Lean towards youth. Take a guy who is two years removed from Tommy John surgery. They are due to have a healthy year, maybe moreso than a pitcher who has never been hurt. Avoid any pitcher who ahs ever had an injury to his throwing shoulder. Surgeries on shoulders are nowhere near as effective as elbows. We may occasionally miss out on a perfectly fine pitcher who had shoulder surgery, but being risk averse means avoiding high risk/reward players. Statistically speaking, look for high K% and low BB%. Those stats, along with BB/K ratio are more predictive, and therefore valuable, than K/9 or BB/9. Look at their Pitch F/X information to see how hard they throw, what kind of difference they have between their fastball and changeup, and how many positive-value pitches they have.

The "Never Pay for Saves" mantra has served fantasy players well for years. Each year, new closers are found during the season, as Opening Day relievers expected to get their team's saves lose the job due to ineffectiveness or injury. Solidify fantasy bullpens with undervalued closers on lousy teams and lights-out middle relievers that add wins + strikeouts, and lower ERA + WHIP.

This year, that formula points at Greg Holland, Steve Cishek, Kyuji Fujikawa, Jason Grilli, Glen Perkins, and Jose Veras for Saves. The best middle relievers this year will likely include guys like Vinnie Pestano, Kelvin Herrera, Wilton Lopez, Brad Brach, David Hernandez, Tyler Clippard, Trevor Rosenthal, and about 88% of the Braves bullpen.

Fantasy Tips: Never Pay for Saves

Steve Cishek is our guy this year. Who's your pick for best RP value?

The smartest people at BAseball Reality Tour will forever be the readers. Please enlighten us in the comments section. Whom did we overlook or overrate? Who are you most excited to see play this year? Which are the best/worst positions to sleep on in fantasy? Thanks for reading!

How 'bout this insignificant sample size?

#Royals 1B Eric Hosmer with two swinging strikeouts so far after going three for three in Saturday's victory.

— Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) March 3, 2013

The day before, we got a "Looks like he's locked in."

Eric Hosmer with an oppo homer in the fifth. Also has two oppo doubles. Looks like he's locked in. #Royals lead Giants 5-2.
— Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) March 2, 2013

We don't mean to criticize. @Royals_Report is one of the best in the business. Besides that, part of the fun is getting caught up in the moment. Sometimes it's no fun to wait for all the data to come in. A "jump to conclusions" mat is a fun idea because we want to jump to conclusions. We love when what we see with our eyes leads us to that moment, when it feels like whom we are rooting for can't miss a pitch, a shot, an open receiver, or a putt.

The Spring 2013 Small Sample Size Extravaganza has begun. Please share blatant SSS examples, in our comment section, or on social media. We could start a Small Sample Size tumblr, which is obviously an untapped social media landscape.

The Cleveland Indians made news last week by signing Michael Bourn to a deal worth at least $48 million over 4 years. The new-look Tribe now boasts one of the best defensive outfields in the game, featuring Michael Brantley in left, Bourn in center, and Drew Stubbs in right.

It's a big year for Drew Stubbs

There are times when it appears Drew Stubbs can do it all on the baseball diamond. He can handle center field, is very fast, can steal bases (40 sb's in 2011) and hit for power (22 HR's in 2009). His flaw has been an inability to avoid making outs. Last season, his on base percentage dipped to an inexcusable .277.

Young players like Drew Stubbs, who can hit a homer, steal a base, and make acrobatic catchers in center field, capture the imagination of fans and talent evaluators. Those players will keep getting chances to play through struggles. Drew Stubbs is getting to the age when ballplayers with sub-.300 On Base Percentages start losing chances. It has happened to hundreds of future star outfielders who's careers fade into fourth outfielder roles. Ballplayer's midlife crises occur when their contracts stop being guaranteed and invites to spring training feel more like job interviews. Stubbs, entering his Age 28 season, is at the crossroads. His Baseball-Reference similar players range from Daryl Boston to the legendary Astro, Jose Cruz. Will Drew Stubbs make adjustments in order to step it up this year? One optimistic comparison to Drew Stubbs' situation is Devon White.

Devo became a Blue Jays fan favorite right away

Drew Stubbs Career (2009-2012; Age 24-27)
.241/.312/.386, 59 HR, 110 SB, 27 CS, 175 BB, 588 K

Devon White (1987-1990; Age 24-27)
.248/.294/.390, 58 HR, 114 SB, 41 CS, 137 BB, 464 K

Will Drew Stubbs go this far?

The Angels traded Devon White to Toronto in December 1990. Blue Jays hitting coach, Gene Tenace, must have somehow helped hit become a more patient hitter. Devo's on base percentage improved to .342 his first season in Toronto, and was .330 for the remainder of his career. He'd also contribute another 149 homers and 223 steals the rest of his career. When the alternative is to finish your playing career like Corey Patterson, Drew Stubbs would be psyched to end his career with over 200 HR's and 225 SB's.

Last week, baseball pundits from Buster Olney to Jon Heyman expect Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti to trade Michael Brantley or Drew Stubbs for pitching help. In between Peter King-esque non sequitur tweets about surprising weather and strange strangers, Heyman can occasionally make an effort to provide a service:

predictably, #indians are getting calls on brantley/stubbs. current plan is to keep both but folks suspects stubbs will go
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) February 13, 2013

Before we check the landscape for potential trade partners, let's look at Terry Francona's lineup choices.

The excellent resource, MLBdepthcharts has the Indians using a Lefty/Righty platoon in Left Field and Third Base, with Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall sitting against southpaws, in favor of Ryan Raburn and Mike Aviles. I think Brantley is more of an everyday player than that, but who knows?

Would it make sense for Francona to bench Drew Stubbs versus tough right handed pitchers? The most logical steps, as their roster projections look now, would be to move Nick Swisher from First Base to Right Field, Mark Reynolds from DH to First, and Jason Giambi to Designated Hitter.

Mark Reynolds is a DH.

If Francona sits Stubbs for Giambi against a right hander, we know the team's defense and base running will be worse. Reports have Swisher's defense above league average at first base, but not so in the outfield. Mark Reynold's defense looks bad on Baseball Reference, and really bad on Fangraphs. How much would the offense improve? Could it be enough to justify the defense?

We all know Giambi is a better hitter against RHP than Stubbs. The numbers just show us how glaring the difference may be. We aren't looking at career numbers because an Out of this World Jason Giambi in the BALCO days has nothing to do with the part-time playing Giambi of 2013. Still, with Giambi's limited play over the past four seasons, 2009-2012, he and Drew Stubbs have the following stats versus right handed pitchers:

Drew Stubbs v RHP (2009-2012)
.301 OBP, .355 SLG, 8.5% BB%, 29.8% K%, .293 wOBA

Jason Giambi v RHP (2009-2012)
.359 OBP, .385 SLG, 17% BB%, 23.2% K%, .332 wOBA

Drew Stubbs and Jason Giambi are just getting acquainted.

The Indians need Drew Stubbs to play better. The improved team defense from having him in RF and MArk Reynolds at DH is probably greater than having Giambi in the lineup. Even if Francona were tempted to squeeze every last bit of value from Giambi's bat wouldn't be able to keep him healthy DH'ing 4 or 5 games per week. Giambi is a pinch-hitter. Herein lies one reason the Tribe is in no hurry to deal.

Beyond that, finding a trade partner is challenging. No more than two teams appear to need an outfielder enough to even consider trading talented pitchers for Brantley or Stubbs. After checking the rosters of all 29 other teams, the New York Mets and Texas Rangers are the only maybes. Both teams were players in the Michael Bourn sweepstakes, and runner-ups to free agent derbies often make the best trading partners.

New York needs an Outfielder about as bad as any Major League Team has needed an outfielder since baseball's expansion of 1998. That season, the inaugural Arizona Diamondbacks featured an outfield lead by 35-year old Devon White, and completed with a rotation of David Dellucci, Karim Garcia, and Brent Brede.

The New York Mets currently look like they will be featuring two platoons in the outfield, and could potentially be better suited with three. MLBdepthcharts has Kirk Nieuwenhuis in center field and Mike Baxter in right field against right-handed starters. When facing a left-hander, the platoon would have Collin Cowgill in center and Andrew Brown in right. The team's best outfielder is Lucas Duda, and he looks to start every day in left field, in spite of his struggles against southpaws.

Throughout Duda's Major League career, his On Base Percentage versus lefties (.296) is 56 points lower than versus righties (.352). In the Minor Leagues, it's even more pronounced. In 2010 Duda compiled the following Minor League splits:

Lucas Duda (2010 AA)
Double-A TOTAL: 192 PA, .411 OBP
Double-A vs LHP: .286 OBP
Double-A vs RHP: .447 OBP

Lucas Duda (2010 AAA)
Triple-A TOTAL: 293 PA, .396 OBP
Triple-A vs LHP: .337 OBP
Triple-A vs RHP: .423 OBP

Lucas Duda is an excellent hitter against right-handed pitching, and we know Drew Stubbs struggles versus righties. Let's take a look at their Major League Splits side by side, and see how they're also affected by the starter/reliever role split.

Lucas Duda MLB Career Splits

Drew Stubbs MLB Career Splits

Lucas Duda is looking a little like Andy Dwyer these days.

Replacing Lucas Duda's .657 OPS against LHP's with Drew Stubbs's .820 OPS sounds like a slam dunk, but a closer look reveals that what Lucas Duda really needs is a good pinch-hitter against tough lefty relievers.

Sandy Alderson is not going to trade valuable pitching for a marginal upgrade that is likely to turn out worthless.

The Rangers are on a more favorable part of the win curve to justify an investment into winning more games in 2013. Their expensive, short-term acquisition of Lance Berkman is a perfect example. We can see the Rangers knocking on the door to a World Series championship. Their biggest question mark in the lineup is Leonys Martín in center field. Does it equate the risk of throwing away a good pitching arm, for the chance that Drew Stubbs will be better than Leonys Martín? In this case, it make come out a bit to scouting versus spreadsheets. The numbers suggest that the Rangers should give Leonys Martín a chance. Bill James and Oliver projections have Martín getting on base more frequently and hitting home runs at a faster pace. Scouts, on the other hand may see Drew Stubbs as a player who is bigger, stronger, and faster than Leonys Martín. Stubbs is 6'4" 205 lbs, and Martín is 6'2" 190. When the bigger player is also faster, it's difficult to temper that impression.

Leonys Martín needs to impress R-Wash and Jon Daniels in 2013.

The Rangers are smart, and we know they love pitching. I think the earliest Drew Stubbs or Michael Brantley get traded would be after trading season heats up in July. Then again, I thought Michael Bourn was going to sign a 1-year pillow contract with the Rangers.